Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Automotive market analysis, auto industry news, automotive intelligence, automotive strategy, .automotive research consultants

Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 28th March 2021

Volvo wants to sell its technology; Toyota buys into Isuzu (again); and no substitution at Porsche. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 22nd March to 28th March 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

Find our archive here.

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News about the major automakers

Daimler (history)

  • The Mercedes-Benz EQS will be able to arrange all billing for charging via communication links in the charging cable, removing the need for the customer to press any new buttons. However, Mercedes didn’t put a timeframe on when the service will become widespread, saying only that it will start with the Ionity network in Europe. (Daimler)
  • Daimler revealed the interior of the EQS. The instrument panel is dominated by the (three-in-one) hyperscreen – at least for many of the cars. Mercedes also showed images of the interior with a cheaper set up (the very last image). It will be interesting to see the hyperscreen’s take rate. (Daimler)
  • CEO Källenius says there will be a “fundamental change” in the powertrain footprint. (Automotive News)

Ford (history)

  • Ford has started using plastic clips made from surplus 3D printer materials. Using its own scrap and that of a company that custom makes braces, Ford has enough to make clips for F-250 pickup trucks, and says that there is a 10% overall cost saving. (Ford)
  • After earlier binning a proposed joint venture with Mahindra, Ford decided not to share any engines or vehicle technologies either. (Autocar)

Geely (includes Volvo) (history)

  • Volvo is teaming up with fellow Geely subsidiary Ecarx to develop infotainment systems, with a plan to sell them to third parties. (Volvo)
  • Geely confirmed that it will launch an all-electric brand called Zeekr (Ji Ke in Chinese). There is a planned five car line-up, with one to be launched each year until mid-decade. (Geely)
  • Geely reported full year 2020 revenue of 92.1 billion RMB (about $14 billion) and net profit of 5.6 billion RMB (about $850 million) on sales of 1.3 million units (including Lynk&Co). (Geely)

Honda (history)

  • Announced the sale of the Swindon, UK, site to a warehouse developer. (Honda)

Hyundai / Kia (history)

  • Will build a charging network in South Korea called “E-pit”. (Yonhap)

Renault (history)

  • Avtovaz is opening a CKD factory in Kazakhstan to make Ladas. (Avtovaz)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

  • Jeep is creating its own charging network at popular off-roading destinations in the USA, in a direct challenge to Rivian. The plan seems somewhat reactive since there are only firm details on a handful of sites – which will be an extension of Electrify America’s network. (Jeep)
  • Signed an agreement for the Lucky Motor Corporation to make vehicles in Pakistan. (Dawn)

Tata (includes JLR) (history)

  • The Indian supreme court ruled in favour of Tata in its court case with former chairman Mistry, who was suing for his reinstatement. (Economic Times of India)

Tesla (history)

  • Elon Musk said that the company will now be accepting bitcoin as payment and won’t be converting the cyber currency to fiat currency. (Business Insider)
  • A Pepsi announcement about forthcoming new electric trucks led to rumours that the Tesla Semi will finally be launched this year. (Clean Technica)
  • The US labour regulator ruled that CEO Musk needed to delete old tweets that threatened workers who wanted to join a union. (Reuters)

Toyota (history)

  • Toyota will share its CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric) technology set with Hino and Isuzu. As part of the deal, Toyota and Isuzu will re-establish a capital alliance dissolved in 2018. (Toyota)
  • Toyota’s Woven VC fund invested in autonomous robotics firm Woven. (Toyota)

VW Group (history)

  • Signed a 50/50 joint venture with Brose for the Sitech seating subsidiary. Critically, Brose will consolidate the joint venture. (VW)
  • Will pursue former executives Martin Winterkorn (ex-group CEO) and Rupert Stadler (ex-Audi CEO) for damages resulting from the diesel scandal. The company accuses them of foot dragging and concealing the truth. (VW)
  • CEO Diess said that an IPO for Porsche was not a high priority. (Handelsblatt)
  • Porsche continued the expansion of its US all-inclusive leasing program. (TechCrunch)
  • Porsche’s CEO suggested that there could be a place for a next generation Panamera against the Taycan because the Panamera is “one step higher”. (Autocar)

Other

  • Fisker made a big announcement about a non-exclusive fleet deal it has signed with an arm of Crédit Agricole that might see the finance company lease cars for its customers. It is unclear how the deal is different to the hundreds of fleet deals major manufacturers agree each year. (Fisker)
  • Humble unveiled the Humble One, a battery electric SUV powered by solar panels. (Humble)
  • Nio’s CEO said he sold a stamping line to Tesla in 2019 at the height of his company’s cash troubles, a move he reckons saved Tesla six or so months. (CNEVPost)
  • Chinese phone maker Xiaomi is reportedly set to make electric cars. (Economic Times of India)

News about other companies and trends

Suppliers

  • BorgWarner held an investor day to talk about its plans for electrification. (BorgWarner)
  • Cognizant acquired software engineering consultancy ESG Mobility. (Congnizant)
  • Eaton acquired charging supplier Green Motion. (Eaton)
  • Eaton and Tenneco will collaborate to develop exhaust systems. (Eaton)
  • Lear acquired M&N Plastics. (Lear)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)

  • Posh ride hailing firm Blacklane raised $26 million. (TechCrunch)

Driverless / Autonomy (history)

  • Lidar maker Baraja raised £31 million. (TechCrunch)
  • Autonomous trucking company TuSimple filed for an IPO. (TechCrunch)
  • Autonomous robot company Nuro raised $500 million from Toyota and others. (FINSMES)

Electrification (history)

  • Samsung is investing to expand capacity in Hungary to a reported 50 GWh. (ET News)

Connectivity

  • Arity says it will sell companies data on whether people are good or bad drivers so that they can be sent appropriate advertisements. (Arity)

Other

  • Ex-JLR CEO Ralph Speth will become chairman of motorbike maker TVS Motor. (Autocar)

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Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 21st March 2021

Geely’s unnecessary extra brand; boosting Tesla’s lobbying power; and Porsche’s enormous digital services target. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 15th March to 21st March 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

  • Great Expectations Geely reportedly plans to launch an all-electric premium brand called Zeekr. It isn’t exactly clear why. The company already owns Polestar (all-electric now, if you exclude the line of Volvo performance upgrades), Volvo (going all-electric) and Lynk&Co (sort of electric). On top of that, it now controls the (all-electric) Smart brand and the Geometry line of (all-electric) cars is still relatively young. Does brand equity mean nothing these days? Why do we need yet another new name?
  • The InfluenceTesla has been lobbying the UK government to increase the price of fossil fuels. Shock horror. Doesn’t it make sense for the company to try to leverage its supposed virtue? Although politicians seem unmoved for now, will they find themselves more convinced when — like the Sand People — Tesla and its new-found all-electric buddies (GM, Volvo, JLR) return in greater numbers?
  • Without A DoubtPorsche is aiming for a double digit percentage of revenue to come from digital services in 2025. With revenue of around €30 billion and growing, getting the nascent business line to more than €3 billion annually in a few years is a significant task. It would be something along the lines of creating a new vehicle line of Panamera type proportions. Do Porsche have a plan for something ground-breaking, or is this apparent ambition simply covering more pedestrian initiatives such as online retail and white label charging?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

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News about the major automakers

BMW (history)

  • BMW published its annual report of 2020 performance. (BMW)
  • Unveiled the all-electric i4. (BMW)
  • Mini will become an all-electric brand by the early 2030s, about in line with the timing executives had suggested in earlier interviews. (BMW)
  • From 2025, BMW will start producing vehicles with next generation software and electric drivetrain that the company calls “neue klasse”. Although the cars will offer both fully electric and internal combustion engine alternatives, BMW says they will be “electric first”. (BMW)

Ford (history)

  • Raised $2 billion in convertible debt that will mature in 2026. The money will probably be used to repay more expensive debt Ford already has. (Ford)
  • UAW union officials gave Ford a public dressing down following a decision to allocate a new product to a plant in Mexico rather than one in Ohio, USA, and threatened “action” if things didn’t change. (Detroit Free Press)
  • Will probably sell some office buildings after the company has decisively shifted to at home working for office staff in the wake of coronavirus. (Detroit Free Press)

Geely (includes Volvo) (history)

  • Kandi has sold its shareholding in Fengsheng Automotive to Geely due to continued heavy losses and the companies are ending their affiliation. Kandi said it will be freed from non-compete clauses. (Kandi)
  • Geely is reportedly set to launch an EV-only premium brand called Zeekr. (Reuters)

General Motors (history)

  • Australian politicians criticised the manner of GM’s closure of the Holden brand. (The Guardian)
  • Although GM has kept pickup truck production going through chip shortages, the company has had to forfeit cylinder deactivation devices, which are reducing the fuel economy of the trucks it can make.  (Detroit Free Press)

Hyundai / Kia (history)

  • Hyundai showed some teaser images of the Staria MPV, which appears positioned to compete against the Mercedes V-Class. (Hyundai)

Nissan and Mitsubishi (history)

  • Nissan is rolling out a new online sales system that will be dealer led. (Nikkei)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

  • Unveiled a new Peugeot 308. (Peugeot)
  • Opel teased an all-electric coupe called the Manta ElektroMOD inspired by the 1970s vintage competitor to the Ford Capri. It isn’t clear whether the car is scheduled for production. (Opel)

Tata (includes JLR) (history)

  • Tata Motor’s new CEO won’t be joining the company as planned. (Autocar)
  • Invested in a new round for online automotive sales start-up Digital Motors. (JLR)

Tesla (history)

  • Chinese authorities have banned Teslas from sensitive locations because the cars have onboard cameras which can beam images back to the company. (Reuters)
  • Tesla stated in a regulatory filing that, alongside their existing roles as CEO and CFO, Tesla’s two top officers will become “Technoking” and “master of coin” respectively. There was no apparent explanation, other than it being a slow news day. (Reuters)
  • Memos revealed what many had suspected: Tesla has lobbied governments to make fossil fuels more expensive and improve the whole life cost of its cars. (The Guardian)
  • Tesla is rumoured to be looking to shut down its assembly facility in Tilburg, Netherlands, although work will continue at the site. (Electrek)

Toyota (history)

  • Unveiled the Aygo X, a concept which presumably presages the launch of Toyota’s next generation city car. The concept suggests that Toyota will create a crossover, although it isn’t clear how the model will be consistent with the low prices of the current model, given the normal price list difference between cars and crossovers. (Toyota)
  • Reported itself to US authorities for possible violation of anti-bribery rules by its Thai subsidiary. (Reuters)
  • Invested in the $500 million round of Momenta. (Nikkei)

VW Group (history)

  • VW Group reported full year 2020 results, with the VW brand and key subsidiaries (e.g. Porsche, Audi, Ducati, Lamborghini) all reporting separate financial results. (VW)
  • The VW brand aims to sell 450,000 electric cars in 2021, double to 2020 figure. (VW)
  • Porsche is planning its own network of filling station-style high power chargers with lounges to run alongside the Ionity charging network. (Porsche)
  • Bentley reckons that it is on course to be the World’s most sustainable car maker. (Bentley)
  • VW Group hailed its approach to cars of the future saying that they would succeed through application of mega platforms. There are four key elements in VW’s view: hardware (the platform), connectivity and software, batteries and charging and mobility services. There was no mention of internal combustion engine vehicles, except that even in Europe they will likely feature in around 40% of VW’s sales in 2030 and the company “refused to commit to a fixed end date”. (VW)
  • CEO Diess expects that the transition from internal combustion engines to battery electric vehicles will take two product cycles. In 2035, he thinks the majority of cars will be electric and 40% will be autonomous. (VW p. 14)
  • Škoda unveiled the new Kushaq, a small SUV bound for the Indian market. (Škoda)
  • VW bought Northvolt’s share in the Salzgitter battery factory hitherto named “Northvolt Zwei” and raised its ownership stake in Northvolt. (Reuters)
  • Audi has stopped developing internal combustion engines. (Golem)
  • Porsche aims for a double digit percentage of sales to come from digital services by 2025. (Porsche CFO p. 14)
  • Several of VW’s battery suppliers reportedly expressed surprise that the company’s announcements about its future state battery strategy (which may exclude some of them because of the design required) had come out of the blue, rather than being shared with them first. (Economic Times of India)
  • VW’s rapidly rising share price, following the firm’s battery day and annual report, piqued the interest of market regulators. (Handelsblatt)

Other

  • Mullen is building a new factory in Memphis, Tennessee, USA. (Mullen)
  • Lordstown intends to sell pickup trucks directly to consumers. (CNBC) The firm is facing regulatory scrutiny over a report issued by a short seller. (Reuters)
  • Arrival is setting up another micro factory in the USA, this time for vans. (TechCrunch)
  • Foxconn and VinFast are reportedly in talks, with the Chinese company apparently keen to buy VinFast’s factories, but the Vietnamese company prefers a partnership. (Reuters)
  • Foxconn says it is trying to decide whether its North American electric vehicle factory should be in Wisconsin, USA, or Mexico. (The Verge)
  • Solar powered car maker Sono Motors is reportedly in talks for a US listing that would see the firm valued at more than $1 billion. (Reuters)
  • Kincsem is launching a hypercar as a route into an all-electric SUV brand. (Autocar)

News about other companies and trends

Economic / Political News

  • European passenger car registrations of 850,170 units in February fell (20)% versus prior year. (ACEA)

Suppliers

  • ZF announced final 2020 financial results (after announcing provisional figures). Although 2020 sales fell to €33 billion, ZF said it had a far order book for electric drives worth over €14 billion  and that this gave the company confidence that it will bounce back in 2021. ZF sees 2030 as a crossover point for electric vehicles, with the powertrain topping 50% of the mix. By 2040, ZF thinks internal combustion engines will take only 7% of sales, and will be 1% in 2050. (ZF)
  • Shortages of chips weren’t helped by news that Renesas had suffered a fire at a Japanese factory that could take up to one month to repair. (Nikkei)
  • Panasonic’s outgoing CEO says the company needs to reduce its reliance on Tesla. (Reuters)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)

  • Uber drivers in the UK will now be workers after the company lose a supreme court region. (TechCrunch)

Driverless / Autonomy (history)

  • Momenta raised $500 million from investors including Bosch and Toyota. (Nikkei)

Other

  • Scooter rental firm Bird is spending $150 million to expand in Europe. (TechCrunch)
  • Scooter rental firm Unagi raised $10.5 million. (TechCrunch)

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Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 14th March 2021

Ford plumps for young talent; Volvo’s clever plan to capture more aftersales market share; and flex-e-bility reigns supreme. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 8th March to 14th March 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

  • Family Affair Two Ford family members are getting added to the Board, which will boast its strongest family contingent for decades with three of them present. Chairman Bill Ford says that they have been subjected to a rigorous assessment that proves they got their place on merit. So why are they several decades younger than all Ford’s other board members?
  • I’m So Tired Volvo has begun fitting a new type of tyre to electric vehicles that it says negates the need for different summer and winter tyres sets. Volvo says it will stop owners from needing two sets of wheels and tyres, reducing environmental damage. Customers normally defect from OEMs for their tyres as they can find them cheaper elsewhere. Will Volvo capture a bigger share of aftersales revenues by having its own tyre?
  • Read All About It — Last week Bernstein published a report that we helped with about the rise of electric vehicles called “flex-e-bility”. The overall summary is that we think too many heads have been turned by electric vehicles with massive batteries that don’t reflect what the mainstream needs. A 250 mile range is good for 99% of daily use (if charged overnight). Going to 330 miles only gets you to 99.5% — is it worth the extra cost for the insurance? Some OEMs (e.g. Volvo and GM) say they will go all-electric asap and they may well lose share in the process. For those that want to sell through the transition, we argue that they would be better making cars that leverage scale between ICE (through very long range PHEV) and BEV, rather than focusing on these long-range top end models. Will we be proved right or wrong?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

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News about the major automakers

BMW (history)

  • Reported 2020 full year automotive revenue of €80.9 billion down (12)% on a year-over-year basis and automotive profit of €2.2 billion, down (52)%. Group EBIT of €4.8 billion fell (35)%. (BMW)
  • BMW and Daimler’s mobility services group is selling its “PARK NOW” parking services division to EasyPark for an undisclosed amount. (Daimler)
  • Invested in Boston Metal, a company that promises to develop steel production without CO2. (BMW)

Daimler (history)

  • 75% of Mercedes-Benz’s suppliers (by value) have committed to sell the company parts produced in CO2 neutral factories by or before 2039. (Daimler)
  • BMW and Daimler’s mobility services group is selling its “PARK NOW” parking services division to EasyPark for an undisclosed amount. (Daimler)
  • Renault sold its entire shareholding in Daimler. (Renault)
  • Daimler is preparing for the industry to shift to all-electric even more quickly than anticipated. (Handelsblatt)

Ferrari

  • Ferrari has restarted it share repurchase scheme. (Ferrari)

Ford (history)

  • Family scions Henry Ford III and Alexandra Ford English are being nominated to Ford’s board. Both currently have roles within the business and are in their 30s. Together with chairman Bill Ford, the Ford family will now have three board seats — the strongest representation for over 20 years. (Ford) Despite being several decades younger than the other board members, chairman Ford insisted that there had been a rigorous vetting process. (Detroit News)

Geely (includes Volvo) (history)

  • Volvo is trying to convince customers to use its proprietary “recharge” tyres rather than swapping between summer and winter sets, as is common in some parts of North America and Europe. If successful, Volvo may be able to capture a greater percentage of aftermarket tyre replacement (commonly a business line with very low customer loyalty). (Volvo)
  • Unveiled a minor refresh of the Volvo XC60. (Volvo)

General Motors (history)

  • Announced a partnership with SolidEnergy to improve the energy density of batteries. (The Verge)
  • Cruise acquired Voyage. (Voyage)

Hyundai / Kia (history)

  • Kia unveiled the all-electric EV6. By channelling its inner Tesla, Kia is making strides on the interior. (Kia)
  • Hyundai insists that it gains a benefit from motorsports through an ability to test new technologies — especially those with a sustainability benefit. (Hyundai)
  • Kia is recalling 380,000 cars in North America because faulty electrics could cause engine fires. (Reuters)

Nissan and Mitsubishi (history)

  • Mitsubishi says it will sell two cars sourced from Renault in Europe and go ahead with a partial withdrawal from the region — staying in some markets. The two models are supposedly undecided but all-electric small cars and SUVs would appear to make the most sense. Mitsubishi will continue selling its own Eclipse Cross. (Mitsubishi)

Renault (history)

  • Sold its entire shareholding in Daimler for about €1.1 billion. Renault will use the money to pay off debt. (Renault)
  • Will build two models for Mitsubishi to sell in Europe. The line-up apparently is still under discussion. (Mitsubishi)
  • Renault’s wholly owned dealership group continued to slim down in France, selling eight dealerships. (Renault)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

  • Called off plans to launch the Peugeot brand in North America and will concentrate on making the most of Alfa Romeo’s faltering return. (Fox)
  • Launched the production versions of the Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagonner, large SUVs (the Grand Wagoneer can fit eight) that are intended to represent the pinnacle of the Jeep brand. The car will only be sold in dealers with the best satisfaction scores — a common starting position for new prestige products but one that rivals have often failed to maintain as they seek to chase volumes. (Jeep)
  • Despite failures by various brands, notably BMW, to popularise the expression, Peugeot hopes that customers will flock to its “power of choice” strategy. The obvious problem with the current portfolio is that customers do not have a choice – if they want an all-electric car, there are only a few to choose from so they must compromise. (Stellantis)
  • Chairman Elkann hopes that Stellantis will be able to invest more in Lancia and Alfa Romeo than FCA did. (Reuters)

Tesla (history)

  • There was a small fire at Tesla’s Fremont factory. (Business Insider)
  • Tesla appears to have pushed back the delivery target for the ultra-fast “Plaid Plus” version of the Model S until at least mid-2022. (Electrek)
  • CEO Musk said that Tesla had removed some testers from the beta program of the latest iteration of its advanced driver assistance system because they weren’t paying proper attention. (Business Insider)
    • Significance: The move implies that Tesla has been tracking driver behaviour and is prepared to act — which presumably would be repeated as and when the system is ready for general release. But will it give refunds to the people that have paid for self-driving yet been denied it?

VW Group (history)

  • Porsche now holds a 24% stake in Rimac. (Porsche)
  • VW announced an early retirement scheme for German employees, hoping that it will be attractive to any employees born between 1956 and 1964. A 2020 “level freeze” will also be extended. (VW) Reportedly, the move may see 5,000 jobs go. (Handelsblatt)
  • Porsche still plans to be making internal combustion engines in 2050 and that the 911 won’t be available with all-electric drive. (Porsche)
  • VW held a “Power Day”, announcing plans for 240 GWh of battery capacity in Europe by 2030 (through six factories of 40 GWh capacity), 80 GWh of which will come from factories jointly owned with Northvolt. Through the capacity expansion and a new “unified cell” design that launches in 2023 and which 80% of its cars will use by 2030, VW hopes to significantly reduce the cost of batteries to well below €100 per kWh. Intriguingly, 20% of products will still need “specific solutions”, such as solid state, to achieve high performance. (VW)
  • VW says 80% of the battery cost comes from the raw materials and 20% from the factory. A planned 5-% reduction in costs for entry level vehicles comes from: cell design (15%); production process (10%); cathode and anode material (20%); and the battery concept (5%). (VW)
  • VW will also partner with several oil companies to create thousands of fast chargers across Europe and China. By 2025, VW says there will be 18,000 charging points — 1/3 of the number the company says are required. The plan is for the chargers to use batteries to become independent of local grid constraints. (VW)
  • VW hopes that a new process it is developing will be able to recover 95% of the materials within a battery, up from around 60% today. (VW)
    • Significance: The relatively poor return from recycling — recovering 95% of the raw materials after expending significant cost – shows the importance of a battery life ecosystem to avoid throwing away value when a battery considered sub-par for a car might still have 80%+ of its usable capacity.

Other

  • Alpha Motor Corporation showed off the Wolf all-electric pickup truck. (Alpha)
  • Aston Martin’s CEO says the company is the most efficient at producing new vehicles that he has ever seen and that 2023 will be a “firework year” for product launches. (Automotive News)
  • Lordstown Motors came under fire from the same firm that went after Nikola. (Detroit News)
  • Great Wall invested in chip developer Horizon Robotics. (Reuters)
  • Xpeng reported 2020 full year revenue of $896 million and a net loss of $(419) million. In Q1 2021 the company expects to sell 12,500 cars, about the same as Q4 2020. (Xpeng) Xpeng received 500 million RMB (about $77 million) from the Guangdong’s provincial government’s investment vehicle. (Xpeng)
  • Canoo unveiled an electric pickup truck. (Canoo)

News about other companies and trends

Suppliers

  • After selling out of an interior trim joint venture held with Yanfeng, Adient is now offloading most of its seating joint venture to its Chinese partner. Adient will get $1.5 billion and two factories. (Adient)
  • Linamar reported 2020 revenue of $5.8 billion and net income of $279 million. (Linamar)
  • Haldex is getting a new CEO. (Haldex)
  • Continental reported 2020 revenue of €38 billion and net income of €(962) million. In 2021, the company expects sales to have almost recovered to 2019 levels. (Continental)

Dealers

  • South African all-inclusive car leasing firm FlexClub raised $5 million. (TechCrunch)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)

  • Grab may reportedly go public in a $40 billion deal to merge with a special purpose entity. (Business Insider)
  • Uber and Lyft are collaborating to create a database of dodgy drivers. (Uber)
  • Via acquired transport route planning start-up Remix. (Via)
  • Mobility usage tracking software firm Populus AI raised $5 million. (TechCrunch)
  • Bolt raised $20 million. (Bloomberg)

Driverless / Autonomy (history)

  • Luminar and Volvo subsidiary Zenseact say that they will sell the driver assistance technology they are developing, called Sentinel, together to other firms. (TechCrunch)
  • Waymo published more data and announced a new series of prizes for teams to compete for — aimed at predicting future movement based on a the previous second of data. (Waymo)
  • AEye said an independent firm had proven the long range capability of its lidar sensors by testing recognition of vehicles at the end of a runway 1 km away from the lidar unit. (AEye)
    • Significance: Whilst the headline claims sound impressive, the number of points covered at the 1km range — around 50 for a van and 35 for a car — might be sufficient to identify as a vehicle when there is nothing else around, but are likely to be far less useful when assessing a crowded field of different object types. The video shows the point cloud at 00:45.

Electrification (history)

  • Mullen Technologies says that by using batteries from NexTech, it hopes to reduce battery pack costs to below $90 per kWh. (Mullen)
  • Charging network Ionity (owned by a consortium of car companies) is reportedly looking to sell a 20% – 25% stake to an investment firm. (Reuters)
  • Northvolt acquired battery technology developer Cuberg. (Northvolt)

Other

  • Delivery robot company Refraction AI raised $4 million. (TechCrunch)

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Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 7th March 2021

Volvo’s careful switch to online sales; Stellantis is betting on a future PHEV ban in rich world markets; and VW plans to keep PHEV and BEV separate. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 1st March to 7th March 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

Find our archive here.

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News about the major automakers

Daimler (history)

  • The fuel cell JV between Daimler Trucks and Volvo will be called cellcentric. (Daimler)

Geely (includes Volvo) (history)

  • Volvo says that its all-electric products will only be sold online, with the company hoping that many customers sign up to the all-inclusive “Care” offering. Volvo says that dealers will still be involved, implying that they will still be able to process a customer sale, but that it will all be through the online service. (Volvo)
  • Volvo unveiled the C40, an all-electric compact crossover. (Volvo)
  • Volvo says that all of its cars will be fully electric by 2030. (Volvo)

Honda (history)

  • Started selling a car with hands-off driver assistance in Japan. The system is called “Sensing Elite”. (Honda)

Hyundai / Kia (history)

  • Unveiled the Bayon small SUV. (Autocar)
  • Battery supplier LG Chem agreed to bear 70% of the recall costs for Hyundai’s electric vehicles. (Nikkei)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

  • Stellantis reported 2020 full year results (achieved as FCA and PSA separately). Revenue was €134 billion, excluding Faurecia. Adjusted operating income of €7.1 billion fell around (40)% year-over-year. On a net basis, FCA made only €24 million. PSA claims to have turned around the Opel/Vauxhall business, reporting a €527 million operating profit in 2020. (PSA)
  • CEO Tavares says he is working on a plan that will take the company to 2030 and will set Stellantis on the offensive as he does not want to be “cornered as a legacy automaker”. Because FCA has faster product development processes than PSA did, he expects that the first combined products could be seen in 2 to 2.5 years. Tavares says that Alfa Romeo needs to find “a better fit” with customers. He thinks that all vehicles based on internal combustion engines, including PHEV, will be banned in key markets, although he isn’t sure of the rate of transition. (Seeking Alpha)
  • The Dodge brand launched an Amazon online store, but you can only buy merchandise and accessories, no cars are on sale. (Dodge)

Tata (includes JLR) (history)

  • JLR CEO Bollore reckons that poor quality is costing the company 100,000 sales per year. (Automotive News)

Tesla (history)

  • After a Tesla entity in China registered for battery swapping services, speculation grew that the company was about to get into the business. However, Tesla said the technology was riddled with problems. (Electrek)

Toyota (history)

  • Confirmed that it will be manufacturing a next generation A-segment car in Europe, taking total manufacturing capacity in the region to 500,000 small cars each year. Toyota also said that it will continue to use internal combustion engines because the entry level is so price conscious. (Toyota)
  • Toyota Tsusho invested in on-demand mobility company Moja Ride. (Toyota)
  • Raising 500 billion JPY (about $4.6 billion) in green bonds to pay for its investment in the Woven City mobility project. (Toyota)

VW Group (history)

  • VW upped its aspirations for all-electric car sales, saying that the company expects 70% of all European sales to be battery electric models by 2030, and 50% will be in the USA and China. The company has now announced the name for its next generation electric platform that supersedes MEB. It will be called the Scaleable Systems Platform. VW will continue to develop internal combustion engine products separately from electric versions, confirming that the Golf, Tiguan and Passat amongst others will all get direct replacements. With a new generation of PHEV technologies, VW says its cars will be capable of up to 100km. (VW)
  • VW’s new CFO will take up his role earlier than previously planned. (VW)
  • VW is using a service that monitors online news reporting to check for evidence of supplier fragility. (Porsche)
  • VW says its Project Trinity electric sedan will launch in 2026 with a sensor suite capable of geofenced autonomous driving and a “revolutionary” production method. (VW)
  • Porsche unveiled the Cross Tursimo version of the Taycan. (Porsche)

Other

  • Subaru announced a host of C-suite changes, including a new chairman. (Subaru)
  • Aston Martin said it will make electric cars in its existing UK factories. (FT)
  • Ssangyong’s turnaround has reportedly stalled as the brand’s new investor wrangles with the Korean state-owned development bank over their respective financial contributions. (Korea Times)
  • Workhorse reported Q4 2020 sales of $652,000 and net income of $280 million, thanks to the company’s share in Lordstown Motors. (Workhorse) Workhorse is meeting with the US Postal Service ask why its vehicles didn’t get selected. (Reuters)
  • Nio reported Q4 2020 revenue of $1 billion, up 133% year-over-year. The operating loss of $(143) million were much better than a year ago. (Nio) Executives says that the company has dramatically reduced the cost of the Nio House brand stores it operates, with investment down 40% for new sites. About 55% of customers are now opting for battery subscriptions. (Seeking Alpha)
  • Arrival unveiled the electric van it says will be in production next year (slightly later than originally intended — now Q3 instead of Q2). (Arrival)

News about other companies and trends

Economic / Political News

  • US light vehicle SAAR of 15.67 million units in February fell (7)%. (Wards)
  • German passenger car registrations fell (19)% in February to 194,349 units. (KBA)
  • UK car registrations in February of 51,312 units fell (36)% versus prior year. (SMMT)
  • Spanish February registrations of 58,279 cars fell (38)% year over year. (ANFAC)
  • Italian passenger car registrations in February of 142,998 units fell (12)% versus 2020. (UNRAE)
  • French registrations in February of 132,637 cars fell (21)% year-over-year. (CCFA)

Suppliers

  • Magna’s president says his firm is the “Foxconn in the automotive industry” and that, thanks to increased interest in its contract manufacturing services it plans to increase production at plants in China and Slovenia. (Nikkei)
  • Schaeffler reported 2020 full year revenue of €12.6 billion and EBIT of €143 million. (Schaeffler)
  • Martinrea reported full year 2020 revenue of $3.4 billion and operating income of $27 million. (Martinrea)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)

  • Uber sold off its local delivery robot company Serve Robotics. (TechCrunch)
  • Hertz agreed a deal to exit bankruptcy. (Auto Rental News)

Driverless / Autonomy (history)

  • Californian politicians introduced a proposal to make all autonomous vehicles electric by 2025. (TechCrunch)

Electrification (history)

  • ProLogium will supply VinFast with solid state batteries. (ProLogium)
  • German telecoms network Deutsche Telekom has started a charging network. (Hubject)
  • Charging firm WiTricity raised $ 18 million. (FINSMES)
  • Battery swapping firm Ample has raised $70 million from investors including Shell and Repsol. The company says it is almost ready to start pilot operation and can change a battery in 10 minutes. (TechCrunch)

Other

  • Flying taxi firm Volocopter raised €200 million with investment from Daimler, Geely and Continental amongst others. (Volocopter)

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Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Automotive market analysis, auto industry news, automotive intelligence, automotive strategy, .automotive research consultants

Auto Industry Briefing — week ending 28th February 2021

Nudging customers towards electric vehicles; cheap and highly efficient engines; and battery swapping through trickle up economics. Please enjoy our auto industry and mobility briefing for 22nd February to 28th February 2021. A PDF version can be found here.

Before you read the detail, what were my favourite stories of the past week…?

News is arranged by company and topic. Stories that apply to more than one company or topic are duplicated.

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News about the major automakers

BMW (history)

  • Despite an existing agreement with BMW to share electric drive technology, JLR said that their next generation motors would be “JLR designed and engineered”, implying that the relationship may have been scaled back. (JLR)

Daimler (history)

  • Daimler trucks announced a collaboration with Cummins that will see the medium duty engine range (i.e. for buses and smaller trucks) transition over to Cummins designs from 2025 onwards. Cummins will take over one of Daimler’s German engine plants as part of the deal. (Daimler)
  • Took the wraps off the redesigned C-Class. As part of the ongoing simplification of the ICE powertrain line-up, the car is now only available with an automatic transmission. A PHEV promises 100km of all-electric range. (Daimler)
  • Launched a free trip recording app that lets prospective customers measure their real world use and then calculates the potential for a battery electric vehicle. The product is currently aimed at van operators. (Daimler)
  • Because business results have been better than expected, Daimler is relinquishing some of the concessions wrung from workers at the depths of the coronavirus crisis and will pay workers a bonus. (Handelsblatt)
  • Mercedes’s COO says the C-Class won’t get a battery electric version until mid-decade at the earliest and feels confident that the forthcoming all-electric product onslaught will give customers enough to think about in the interim. (Autocar)

Ferrari

Ford (history)

  • CEO Farley said that the US government should support the construction of domestic battery factories, invoking the current problem of semiconductor supply as evidence of the alternative. (Reuters)
  • The US Postal Service awarded a mega order for a next generation van which used Ford’s Transit chassis in the testing phase. It isn’t yet clear to what extent Ford will benefit from the decision. (The Verge)
  • Recalling over 79,000 pickup trucks because the windscreens may not be properly glued to the body and another 11,000 trucks because they have labels that incorrectly state the payload capacities. (Ford).

Geely (includes Volvo) (history)

  • Geely and subsidiary Volvo Cars won’t merge after all. Instead the two brands issued a press release trumpeting (existing) plans to combine internal combustion engine production and share vehicle underpinnings. (Geely)
    • Significance: If Geely has failed to fully absorb Volvo, does that mean Daimler’s stakeholders can breathe a little easier knowing that the threat of a full-blown merger has perhaps receded on technical grounds (not that this rules out a takeover)?
  • Lynk&Co will use Volvo’s distribution and service network, rather than building its own. It remains to be seen whether these will be supported by local brand centres. (Geely)
  • Geely intends to share in forthcoming vehicle engineering, including the SPA2 platform, indicating that larger products are on the horizon. (Geely)

Honda (history)

  • Created a battery swapping consortium for motorcycles and light vehicles with other prominent motorcycle players including Yamaha and KTM. (Honda)
    • Significance: Given the role of motorcycles as the first step on the automotive ownership ladder in many emerging markets, it seems likely that if the idea of battery swapping catches hold in that segment, customers will be more receptive when they graduate to cars, especially if it proves cheaper than owning larger batteries.

Hyundai / Kia (history)

  • Unveiled the Hyundai Ioniq 5 hatchback. Hyundai said the car had generated plenty of interest from customers, with 236,000 enquiries received in Europe within 24 hours of the launch – about 5% of which translated into initial orders. Hyundai said it was the most successful product reveal in the brand’s history. (Hyundai)
  • Kia Canada launched a self-styled virtual auto show. The offering bares a visual similarity to a configurator but includes games where the customer can pretend to drive a Kia Stinger around a race track, learning about the technological features and being steered to safety anytime they risk a crash. (KIA)
    • Significance: The current iteration is processor-hungry and not entirely smooth, but as such sites develop they could be a year-round presence with relatively low investment, and point to the kind of enhanced capabilities brands may need to add to websites if they expect customers to buy directly from them.

Mazda

  • Recalling around 14,000 CX-30 in the USA because the powered liftgate might drop onto people’s heads if the car is parked on a slope in the wrong type of weather conditions for too long. (Mazda)

Nissan and Mitsubishi (history)

  • Nissan said that the next generation of small gasoline engines that will go into series hybrid products (e-POWER in Nissanspeak) will have a thermal efficiency of over 50%. To put it in context, this is a similar level to the highly acclaimed current generation of Formula 1 engines (albeit that the task for Nissan’s engine is made simpler by not having to respond to as wide a variety of operating loads). (Nissan)
  • Mitsubishi appears set to perform a u-turn on plans to withdraw from the European market, and is reportedly instead contemplating selling Renault-built cars on the continent. (FT)

Stellantis (formed via the merger of PSA and FCA)

  • Unveiled a relaunch of the Peugeot brand that will see the existing full body profile dropped in favour of a headshot, with cars carrying a shield style badge that Peugeot says crowns a move upmarket. The revamp appears to herald an upgrade for dealerships; it is unclear what level of investment will be required. (Peugeot)
  • Unions and government officials were in a flap over Stellantis’s threats to stop giving the Ellesmere Port, UK, plant new models, citing the policy of ending combustion engine sales by 2030 as a risk to demand. (The Guardian)
    • Significance: At first PSA, Stellantis’s predecessor said that uncertainty around a post-Brexit trade deal was threatening the factory’s future. With that sewn up, the company has now set its sights on the (not new) 2030 target. It appears unlikely that in the long term the sub-scale factory will not succumb to competition from other plants.
  • By 2022, the Vauxhall brand will have delivered 3,000 all-electric Vivaro vans to a single customer, UK energy giant Centrica. (Vauxhall)
    • Significance: With start-ups attracting high valuations based on order books of a similar range, investors may soon be forced to choose between giving traditional automotive businesses higher multiples for their sales success, or becoming more bearish on startups with less demonstrable sales momentum.
  • Jeep is coming under pressure to stop using the Cherokee brand. (BBC)
  • CEO Tavares reportedly warned Italian unions that costs were too high compared to other countries, but said that labour costs weren’t the issue. (Automotive News)

Suzuki

  • Announced a new mid-term plan that will see Suzuki concentrate on defining its response to changing environmental technologies, with a focus on CO2 from the tailpipe and CO2 in manufacturing, plus the impact of connectivity, autonomy and electric powertrain. The firm is now targeting carbon neutral production by 2050. By 2025, the revenue is targeted to grow over 50% from 2020 levels to 4.8 trillion JPY (about $45 billion) from sales of 3.7 million vehicles (plus 2 million motorcycle). The operating income target is 5.5%.  (Suzuki)
  • Suzuki’s chairman is retiring. (Nikkei)

Tata (includes JLR) (history)

  • JLR hosted an investor day where more details of the company’s turnaround plan were unveiled. Land Rover is targeting aggressive market share gains in China, UK and Europe. JLR expects PHEV (used only by Land Rover in the latter half of the decade) to be a marginal technology and forecasts the powertrain will take 10% of sales in 2030, down from 15% in 2026 (by 2030 ICE/48V share is forecast to be 30% — all Land Rover). Two Defender-branded SUVs are in the product plan (page 23), whilst further Range Rover derivatives, including the rumoured Road Rover, appear to have been dropped. There still seems to be a place for both Velar and Evoque. (JLR)
  • On Pages 26 and 27 of the presentation, Jaguar Land Rover kindly reimagined the E-FIRST concept drawings from Evercore and Ad Punctum’s 2018 paper, showing how a single platform could be re-purposed across battery electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid variants. The company talks of “one simplified electrified compact ICE” to power all vehicles, implying but not confirming a series hybrid approach, and at the very least, substantive use of electrification for augmentation to allow the smaller engine to run at a more steady state. (JLR)
  • Despite an existing agreement with BMW to share electric drive technology, JLR said that their next generation motors would be “JLR designed and engineered”, implying that the relationship may have been scaled back. (JLR)
  • Jaguar is aiming for only a small slice of JLR’s total volume, indicating a dramatically slimmer line-up from today, possibly only two to three cars. JLR’s volume projections (page 31) shows an indicative volume of only around 10% – 15% of total company sales by 2030. (JLR).
  • JLR is explicitly looking to increase collaboration with companies outside Tata in products, as well as data and services, aiming to create a vehicle architecture ecosystem. By 2027, the company expects capacity utilisation to be above 100% (as measured by 2 shift operating). This will mostly be accomplished by reducing production as increased overall sales are anticipated to be relatively modest, up around 10% – 15% from current levels, some of which will be industry recovery. By the end of 2021, JLR expects its breakeven points to be between 400,000 – 450,000 units annually, a level which it expects to maintain into the future. Despite the push into electric vehicles and the creation of new platforms, JLR says it can bring investment in new products and plants down (page 51). The end result is a targeted 10% EBIT margin by 2026. (JLR)
    • Significance: Whilst 10% EBIT margin is an ambitious target compared with rivals, it is probably the minimum return necessary to justify JLR’s continued independence. The question is therefore what will happen to the company if by mid-decade it has failed to realise its objectives.

Tesla (history)

  • CEO Musk told employees that demand for refreshed Model S and Model X was so high that the company would put on a second shift and increase production capacity. (Electrek)
  • Musk said on Twitter that Tesla was changing the chemistry of the batteries used in entry level cars to use less nickel and conserve resources. (Electrek)
  • Tesla apparently isn’t immune to chip shortages and has planned downtime for the Model 3. (Business Insider)

Toyota (history)

  • Toyota has developed a near plug-and-play fuel cell system that it hopes to sell to manufacturers of low volume commercial vehicles, trains and boats. (Toyota)

VW Group (history)

  • Reported preliminary financial results for 2020. Revenue of €223 billion fell (12)% on a year-over-year basis, less than a sales volumes drop of (16)%. Operating profit of €10.6 billion (excluding diesel costs) was (45)% lower than prior year. (VW)
  • Real Madrid players posed with a fleet of new Audis that the brand was handing over as a part of a marketing exercise, presumably before handing them over to their nannies (unless you believe Zinedine Zidane drives a diesel estate car). (Audi)
  • Porsche will reportedly participate in a new funding round for Rimac with Bugatti being included as a sweetener to take Porsche’s share to almost 50%. (Reuters)
  • Hopes to put autonomous delivery vehicles on the road in 2025, based on the ID Buzz minibus. (VW)

Other

  • Lucid announced a deal to go public in a $24 billion mega merger with a special purpose vehicle. (Lucid) CEO Rawlinson says six rival automakers have recently asked about sharing technology. (Reuters)
  • Aston Martin reported 2020 financial results. Wholesale volumes of 3,394 cars dropped (42)% from 2019 (retails were down (32)%), and revenue of £612 million dropped (38)%. The operating loss was £(323) million and free cash flow was £(539) million. Executives promised that 2021 financial performance would be much improved as a turnaround plan comprising cost reductions, organisational efficiency and reductions in dealer stocks take hold. (Aston Martin) In the earnings call, CEO Moers said Aston Martin will have electrified 90% of the portfolio by 2030 and that he is working an additional, unspecified, derivative of the Valkyrie hypercar. (Seeking Alpha) Aston Martin also announced a debt issue to raise £76 million. (Aston Martin)
  • Fisker reported financial results for 2020 and announced an agreement with Foxconn for its second vehicle. Unsurprisingly, the company reported a loss since it has no revenue. In 2021 Fisker says its rate of development spending will increase by around 10 times from 2020 levels (and about 3-4 times from Q4 run rates). The new product will be built in Foxconn’s facilities and Fisker thinks it can sell 250,000 per year. By confirming that this will be Fisker’s second product, the brand implied that the Emotion sports car (which had been scheduled for an earlier release date) is either deferred or cancelled. (Fisker)
    • Significance: Fisker’s sales targets are highly ambitious given the company’s currently very small distribution network. Although the plan is partly to use external providers for vehicle distribution and servicing, the objectives are likely to require a substantive retail presence across the globe. Even if Fisker were able to replicate Tesla’s class-leading sales per dealer numbers, over 300 sites would be required.
  • Li Auto reported financial results for Q4 2020. Revenues were $636 million on sales of 14,464 units, and the company had an operating loss of $(12) million. Li Auto said sales continue to improve — in January 2021 5,379 units were delivered, putting the brand on track for its best ever quarter. If sales were to continue at the present level for the entire year, they will exceed 1,000 vehicles per sales outlet, a marker of strong sales performance. (Li Auto)
  • Workhorse’s share price took a pummelling after it failed to win a major US postal service contract. (The Verge)
  • Supercar maker Mazzanti is hoping to raise money through a cryptocurrency offering. (FinTech Magazine)
  • Hydrogen truck maker Hyzon Motors agreed to list via a merger with a special purpose entity. The company is now planning a fuel cell factory with capacity for 12,000 units each year — Hyzon reckons it will be the World’s largest, which says something about how much (or how little) auto makers are betting on the technology. (Hyzon)
  • Nikola Motors confirmed that the launch dates of the company’s fuel cell trucks have been pushed back. The Scania-based TRE will hopefully launch in 2023, whilst the more stylish and longer range Nikola Two won’t arrive until 2024. Battery electric products should arrive sooner. (Nikola) Nikola also reported financial results. In Q4 2020, the firm suffered a net loss of $(147) million. With about $845 million of cash in the bank and spending of around $(150) million per quarter — which seems likely to rise, Nikola will quickly become illiquid without revenue. (Nikola)
  • Electric truck maker Hyliion reported a Q4 2020 loss of $(21) million. (Hyliion)

News about other companies and trends

Suppliers

  • Faurecia reported full year 2020 financial revenue of €14.6 billion and €406 million of operating income. The company hosted an investor day to discuss the company’s push into hydrogen vehicles and aspirations for share and pricing increases for interiors and electronics. The overall target is to grow revenue to around €24.5 billion by 2025 (up from a near term run rate of about €18.5 billion) and maintain a 8% operating margin. (Faurecia)
  • Ahead of its public listing, lidar firm AEye raised $225 million from investors including Continental, GM, Hella and Subaru. (AEye)
  • Advik Hi-Tech acquired Hanon’s Bangalore water pump factory. (Autocar)
  • Interiors supplier ECARX raised $200 million. (Deal Street Asia)
  • Dana acquired controls software firm Pi Innovo (Dana already held a minority stake). (Dana)
  • Samsung’s Harman acquired over the air software provider Savari. (Autocar)
  • Samsung SDI is expanding capacity at its Hungarian factory — to 40 GWh. (ET News)
  • Michelin says that by 2050 it will be able to make tyres that use completely sustainable raw materials, up from 30% today. (Michelin)

Dealers

  • UK online car supermarket Cazoo acquired German all-inclusive leading firm Cluno. (Motor Trader)
  • US all-inclusive leasing firm NextCar raised $30 million. (Axios)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental (history)

Driverless / Autonomy (history)

  • Aurora acquired lidar developer OURS Technology. (TechCrunch)
  • Navya and Bolloré-owned Bluebus are collaborating on a design for an autonomous bus. (Navya)
  • VW hopes to put autonomous delivery vehicles on the road in 2025, based on the ID Buzz minibus. (VW)

Electrification (history)

  • The US Postal Service announced the winner of a competition to build a fleet of between 50,000 – 165,000 mail vans to partially replace 190,000 older vehicles, many of which have spent decades in service. News of Oshkosh’s win and was bad for Workhorse, which then saw dramatic falls in its share price. (The Verge)
  • Huawei doesn’t want to brand cars, but could be heavily involved in their software. (China Money Network)
  • Battery developer SVOLT raised $541 million. (Deal Street Asia)
  • Battery developer NyoBolt raised $10 million. (FINSMES)
  • German electric vehicle startup Next.e.Go raised €30 million. (Next.e.Go)

Other

  • Air taxi firm Joby Aviation is going public in a merger with a special purpose entity. (Economic Times of India)
  • Archer Aviation hopes to start commercial operations in 2024. (TechCrunch)
  • Metal additive manufacturing company Mantle raised $13 million. (TechCrunch)

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