Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 15th May to 21st May 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week? Can we say our own research into mobility? We think that this is the most comprehensive first principles analysis openly published — whether you share our conclusions it should still be useful in forming or supporting your own. If we had to choose a story from the news itself… the Japanese hydrogen network and fuel cell consortium looks interesting… could this do for fuel cells what Tesla’s supercharging network did for BEVs? Sorry for not choosing Lyft/Waymo…

Ford’s succession rumours are breaking today so missed our weekly cut-off…

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

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Our latest research

We’ve just published a detailed review of the fundamentals behind the driverless on-demand mobility business case. We start with the facts of how people travel today and assess the key factors behind market growth rate and mass acceptance.

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • Announced that Delphi has joined the self-driving alliance BMW created with Intel and Mobileye. Delphi will act as the system integrator and seemed a logical choice given the existing cooperation it has with Mobileye. (..)
  • UK media reported on CEO Harald Kruger’s comments that the Mini plant in Oxford could be negatively affected by Brexit, saying the BMW was planning “in terms of scenarios” and “was flexible” on the source of Minis. (..)
  • Settled a US class action case relating to failure of airbags supplied by Takata. The overall bill was $553 million of which BMW’s share was $131 million. (..)
  • Warned investors that R&D spending will increase to about 6% of sales in 2017 and 2018 due to extra investment in CO2 reduction technologies and electric vehicles. (..)

Daimler

  • Daimler and BYD will reportedly increase capital in their 50/50 electric car making JV, Shenzhen Denza New Energy by 1 billion yuan. (..)
  • Will reportedly cooperate with Tesla Energy’s rival Vivint to offer a combined solar-roof and battery storage product in Germany. (..)

FCA

  • Saw reports that the US Justice Department will file a suit covering 104,000 vehicles with excess emissions from their diesel engines. The Justice Department if following up an accusation made in January by the EPA. (..). FCA believes that it has a fix available and is seeking regulatory approval to apply it. (More…)
  • Reported official April sales figures for Europe. Group sales of 89,300 vehicles were 0.5% lower year-over-year, which FCA attributed to fewer selling says. FCA said that share had risen 50 points to 7.3% (7.2% on YTD basis). The growth was primarily from the Fiat band. (..)
  • The European Commission announced that it would begin infringement proceedings against Italy for not properly following EU rules for vehicle type approval. The move is related to approval of FCA vehicles. (..)
  • Issued a press release touting the use of Samsung supplied technology to improve productivity at its Alfa Romeo plant in Cassino, Italy. (..)

Ford

  • Has launched a buy out programme targeted at making 1,400 job cuts in North America and Asia. The figure is 10% of a targeted subset of the workforce in these locations. Media had initially reported figures of up to 20,000 job cuts, consistent with a 10% reduction in the entire global workforce. (..)
  • Head of product development Raj Nair said that Ford was using recent acquisition Chariot to experiment with fleet management and could develop it into a tool for autonomous fleet management. (..)
  • Announced Europe sales results for April. Overall sales of 100,800 vehicles were down 11% year-over-year. Passenger car sales fell 13% YoY, while commercial vehicles fell 5%. Ford trumpeted SUV sales growth. (..)
  • Said that it will invest $350 million into its transmission plant in Livonia, USA. The investment will create 800 jobs and be for a new front wheel drive transmission. (..)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Volvo’s CEO said that the company will likely not develop any “new generation” diesel engines. He said that the company would make upgrades to the existing architecture, launched in 2013, that would probably allow them to remain in production until about 2023. (..)
  • Volvo cars said that it would begin production in India with the aim of doubling its market share. The production will use Volvo Trucks’s infrastructure, but no exact details of how this will work were supplied. (..)
  • Media speculated that the sale process for Proton is reaching a close. Geely is one of the two final bidders. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Made some major changes to its International Operators division, which it expects will realise annual savings of around $100 million. GM will stop selling Chevrolet vehicles in India, although car production there will continue — focused on exports (to Mexico, Central and South America). GM will sell its GM South Africa light commercial vehicle manufacturing operation to Isuzu and stop producing and selling Chevrolet vehicles there (this follows an earlier sale of GM East Africa assets to Isuzu). Special Items of about $500 million will be reported as a consequence. (..)
  • Media reported on the small supply of Ampera-e vehicles in Europe. Opel reportedly has only trained 40 electric car specialists in Germany (there are around 2,400 dealers) and the car will only be available via leasing. Outright purchase will not be an option. (..)
  • Lyft, in which GM holds a significant stake, confirmed it had agreed to work together on deployment of autonomous vehicles with Alphabet’s (Google) Waymo. Lyft said that Waymo holds “today’s best self-driving technology”. It was unclear what effect this would have on GM’s plan for Lyft to deploy vehicles using technology from GM’s Cruise subsidiary. (..)
  • Said that it was making an industry leading commitment to use tyres sourced from sustainable rubber but did not give a commitment for when it would reach that goal. (..)
  • Bloomberg profiled the strategy and actions of CEO Mary Barra and President Dan Ammann to withdraw from unprofitable markets and products. (..)

Honda

  • Will be part of an 11-company consortium that aims to accelerate roll-out of hydrogen stations in Japan, targeting 160 stations and 40,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2020. (More…)

Hyundai / Kia

  • Was forced to deny rumours that it will introduce a holding company structure. (..)
  • Will be investigated by the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration over the way that it handled a recall for vehicles that were at risk of engine fires. (..)

Mazda

  • Settled a US class action case relating to failure of airbags supplied by Takata. The overall bill was $553 million of which Mazda’s share was $76 million. (..)

 Nissan

  • Said that a credit card it had launched in partnership with Synchrony Financial could form the basis of a payments platform for mobility services. (..)
  • Will be part of an 11-company consortium that aims to accelerate roll-out of hydrogen stations in Japan, targeting 160 stations and 40,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2020. (More…)
  • A recent North America supplier relations survey saw Nissan drop to the bottom of the comparative ranking table of how Tier 1 suppliers perceive OEMs. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • PSA and Aisin reportedly in talks to extend their existing cooperation on gearboxes. The proposals reportedly include PSA licensing Aisin designs for in-house production. (..)
  • Media speculated that the sale process for Proton is reaching a close. PSA is one of the two final bidders. (..)
  • Signed a joint venture agreement with SC Uzavtosanoat to produce light commercial vehicles is Uzbekistan. The licence will be for production of up to 16,000 vehicles per year from 2019 (including for export). (..)
  • Faurecia announced an exclusive agreement to develop carbon fibre composite fuel cell tanks based on technology from aerospace company Stelia Aerospace Composites. (..)
  • Faurecia said that it was joining a German cluster researching carbon composites with the aim of introducing them into production vehicles in the early 2020s. (..)
  • PSA’s Vesoul Facility had a fire that destroyed a building on the site. No downtime will result from the blaze. (..)
  • Management and unions at the Rennes factory agreed to add workdays due to the success of 5008. (..)

Renault

  • According to French media, the incoming French government has complained to Renault about the way that the company’s statements portrayed the impact of the State’s shareholding. (..)

Tesla

  • CEO Elon Musk criticised those holding back the advance of autonomous technology saying that they were “killing people”. (..)
  • Announced that all owners who had purchased vehicles since 1st January would be given free supercharging for life (as was the previous arrangement) rather than a capped yearly amount. As of now, new vehicles sold will have the previously announced capped level of 400 kWh per year. Lifetime charging will still be available for buyers in possession of a special referral code. (..)

Toyota

  • Settled a US class action case relating to failure of airbags supplied by Takata. The overall bill was $553 million of which Toyota’s share was $279 million. (..)
  • Announced the launch of a restroom information service at around 19,000 sites in Japan. The aim seems to be to show off the capabilities of Toyota’s telematics service. (..)
  • Will be part of an 11-company consortium that aims to accelerate roll-out of hydrogen stations in Japan, targeting 160 stations and 40,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2020. (More…)

VW Group

  • Announced the extension of Audi CEO Rupert Stadler’s contract for a further five years. Audi have also made integrity part of the CFO’s responsibilities. (..)
  • Audi announced that as part of a working group with city governments, the German standards institute and other companies it had developed a standardised set of terms for the city of the future called DIN 91340. (..)
  • Audi announced that it had agreed a new contract with its dealer body in China. A dispute had arisen with FAW-affiliated dealers about how vehicles from Audi’s new partnership with SAIC would be sold. The new agreement states that all Audi models (regardless of source) will be sold by the FAW dealers and remains unclear on how the relationship with SAIC will develop. (..)
  • The UK government refused a freedom of information request relating to talks it had held with Bentley over the way Brexit could impact the company’s investments in the UK. The government said that this was because it could weaken the UK’s negotiating position. (..)
  • Following on from media speculation last week, German authorities confirmed that they would investigate CEO Mueller and Chairman Potsch (relating to market manipulation at Porsche SE on the basis of not telling shareholders quickly enough about the extent of VW’s diesel scandal). (..)
  • VW’s joint venture in China with FAW will recall 577,590 vehicles because of a headlight fuse defect. (..)
  • CEO Mueller said that he was already in talks with the Board about his successor (his contract expires in 2020) and that the successful candidate was likely to come from within the company (More…)

Other

  • Aston Martin is reportedly considering an IPO as early as next year. The company declined to comment, referring enquiries about its future structure to the current owners. (..)
  • Isuzu agreed to purchase GM’s operations in South Africa. As a part of the deal, Isuzu will buy out GM’s 30% stake in its South African subsidiary. (..)
  • Media speculated that the sale process for Proton is reaching a close, with Board meetings taking place to consider rival bids by Geely and PSA. (..)
  • Subaru settled a US class action case relating to failure of airbags supplied by Takata. The overall bill was $553 million of which Subaru’s share was $68 million. (..)
  • Suzuki announced a series of leadership changes, including new director and executive vice president appointments. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • European registrations for April were announced, passenger car sales of 1.191 million fell 6.6% year-over-year. Trade body ACEA said that the main reason for the drop was fewer selling days due to Easter. Of the Big 5 markets, only Spain grew. EU member states since 2004 (EU12) grew by 8.2% YoY. The market is up 4.7% YoY YTD. (..)
  • The European Commission announced that it would begin infringement proceedings against Italy for not properly following EU rules for vehicle type approval. The move is related to approval of FCA vehicles. (..)
  • The Trump Administration has notified US Congress that it is seeking to renegotiate NAFTA. (..)
  • The UK Conservative party included in its manifesto a policy for “almost every car and van” on UK roads to be zero emission by 2050. They have promised to invest £600 million by 2020 to help achieve it — leading to speculation that a scrappage scheme is in the offing. (..)

Suppliers

  • There was an explosion at a Schaeffler factory in Eltmann, Germany. 23 people were injured with 7 requiring hospital treatment. (..)
  • ZF said that it will create a joint venture called e.Go Moove with start-up Go Mobile to produce a 15 seat autonomous electric minibus, for which it will supply the electric drive and some autonomous components. (More…)
  • ZF said that it would purchase the automotive division of Romanian engineering services company BeeSpeed. The acquisition is related to critical expertise BeeSpeed employees have provided to ZF’s braking systems business over the past ten years. (..)
  • Faurecia announced an exclusive agreement to develop carbon fibre composite fuel cell tanks based on technology from aerospace company Stelia Aerospace Composites. (..)
  • Faurecia said that it was joining a German cluster researching carbon composites with the aim of introducing them into production vehicles in the early 2020s. (..)
  • Saw media speculation that a settlement by four OEMs of some US claims relating to Takata’s airbags (others remain outstanding) might help the company find a buyer. (..)
  • Raw material supplier Glencore’s CEO Ivan Glasenberg said that the “electric revolution” was underway and likely to be felt faster than expected. (..)
  • 3M will sell is tolls and automated numberplate recognition business to Californian company Neology. (..)
  • Dana said that it will build a new $13 million, 7,500 sqm factory in Chongqing, China for production of AWD transmission components. (..)
  • Denso said that it will build an additional plant on its Fukushima, Japan site for the production of powertrain components. The investment will be about $135 million and production will begin in late 2018. 600 jobs will ultimately be created. (..)
  • Cimos, a Slovenian car parts maker, has been sold by the government to TCH. (..)
  • The Finnish financial regulator referred Nokian Tyres to the police over reported insider trading and irregularities in the way it supplied tyres to journalists for consumer comparison tests. (..)
  • UNO Minda and Microsoft will collaborate on connected car technologies aimed at the Indian market. (..)

Dealers

  • UK dealer group Peoples announced that it had sold its Ford dealership in Accrington (NW England) to Oldham Motor Company. (..)

Ride-Hailing & Car Sharing

  • Uber announced Uber Freight, a business to match up drivers and loads. (..)
  • Bosch has announced a scheme that will offer self-service short term rental of 600 scooters in Paris. This is the first expansion after its initial scheme in Berlin. (..)

 Driverless / Autonomy

  • Waymo and Lyft confirmed that they have agreed to work together on deployment of autonomous vehicles. Waymo cited Lyft’s commitment to “improving the way cities move” as part of the logic for the tie-up, whilst Lyft said that Waymo holds “today’s best self-driving technology”. (..)
  • Ford’s head of product development Raj Nair said that Ford was using recent acquisition Chariot to experiment with fleet management and could develop it into a tool for autonomous fleet management. (..)
  • ZF said that it will create a joint venture called e.Go Moove with start-up Go Mobile to produce a 15 seat autonomous electric minibus, for which it will supply the electric drive and some autonomous components. (More…)
  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticised those holding back the advance of autonomous technology saying that they were “killing people”. (..)
  • Bloomberg published an updated graphic of tie-ups in the mobility space. (..)
  • Car sharing company Getaround said that it was developing technologies that would allow it to provide on-demand maintenance services in future. (..)

Electrification

  • The German government has accepted that it will not meet its goal of one million electric vehicles on the road by 2020 according to comments by Chancellor Angel Merkel. (..)
  • Raw material supplier Glencore’s CEO Ivan Glasenberg said that the “electric revolution” was underway and likely to be felt faster than expected. (..)
  • Speculation among trade press in the UK that dealers may be more prepared to stock used electric vehicles, following a rise in auction prices. (..)
  • Israeli firm StoreDot claims that it has developed new battery chemistry that allows 300 miles of range to be charged within 5 minutes. (..)
  • Qualcomm said that it had demonstrated a method for wireless charging at highway speeds via a specially equipped road surface and using two Renault vehicles. The claimed charging rate of 20 kW is the same as a high-powered home charging unit. (..)

Other

  • Spanish car parking company Empark has been put up for sale. Possible valuation is €1 billion. (..)
  • German online used car retailer Auto1 reportedly was valued at €2.5 billion in its latest funding round. (..)

Chauffeurs For All — Mobility From First Principles

On-demand mobility is a new and exciting area, promising a world where travel is better, cheaper, faster and safer. Although there are thousands of employees and many billions of dollars being put to work by start-ups and traditional car companies alike, business forecasts appear in the main to be subjective and based on individual intuition. This would make sense in unchartered territory but mass-transportation exists as a business today. It has existed for many decades.

On-demand mobility may change business models and the way travel is experienced, but it is not starting from scratch. People travel trillions of miles each year. There is plentiful data about how they do so.

We conducted an in-depth investigation from first principles to see what we could learn and you can read it here.

Because it is 22,000 words long, we wrote a simpler version which you can read here (the long version is more fun).

Our key findings are as follows:

  • Current average spending on land-based travel is about $0.70 per mile — the figure is slightly higher in the US and a little lower in the EU28. This is the share of spending that on-demand mobility companies are competing for. Although some modes of transport (e.g. public buses and rail) are substantially cheaper than cars, this does not meaningfully skew the average because of the dominance of the passenger car for land travel

  • Any big switch to on-demand travel isn’t coming from rail, bus and air — it comes from car ownership. The clear majority of passenger miles travelled are already by privately-owned car. Whilst there is potential for transfer from other sources (e.g. buses) and creating incremental travel, our analysis is that this amounts to between 15% – 25% of the market. Most on-demand revenue comes from people subscribing to a service that covers all their travel needs rather than buying a car.

  • The potential revenue of a wholesale switch to on-demand is huge — $6 trillion per year. Already the population of the EU, USA and China collectively travel more than 8 trillion miles annually, a figure that will increase through economic growth. Changing from private car ownership to on-demand unlocks that revenue without even changing travel behaviour.

  • Establishing a viable on-demand model faces a big problem — capacity utilisation. The pattern of “rush hours” holds across different regions and countries. Utilisation assumptions above 50% are optimistic. Without sufficient capacity, people won’t give up their cars. If they don’t do that, on-demand struggles for market share.

  • Driverless on-demand services can achieve prices of $0.60 per mile and below even without sharing and will dramatically reduce car production — by between 60% – 75%. The privately-owned car is so inefficient in terms of utilisation that even lower-end assumptions for system efficiency drastically reduce the number of new cars needed.

  • Autonomous vehicles will be capable of most journeys sooner than many people think — by the early 2020s. The classic driverless test is a narrow urban road filled with perils but this is a rarity, not a day-to-day reality, for most journeys. Around 70% of travel in the USA and UK is on major arterial roads and highways — the technology is nearly capable of this now. Driverless cars don’t need to be capable on 100% of routes to capture share. The network will grow road-by-road, just like cable TV.

  • Widespread autonomy will be with us by 2030 — accounting for at least 40% of mileage. The rate of switchover depends on three things: price, technology and regulation. The rate at which taxis win share as price drops has been studied for many decades. Taxis win share slowly and it is only the rich who can afford to pay extra. If you look at it from Uber’s point of view, growth seems meteoric but this is from a very low percentage of travel in taxis (about 1% of trips) to a larger but still very low percentage of travel via ride-hailing. Reaching cost parity with car ownership creates a dramatic consumer response. Favourable regulation and technology progress could double the rate of adoption (to over 80% in 2030). This level of growth may not require a colossal amount of upfront funding — cash flow is hugely positive since revenue is still related to taxi services with human drivers (albeit with discounts) but costs are far lower.

  • Regulators have a substantial role in the rate of adoption. It isn’t sufficient for driverless cars to be good enough, they must also be legal. Regulators aren’t in universal agreement on what is good and bad about “dumb” cars today; myriad different laws, technical standards and tax rates attest to that. Expect autonomous vehicles to create even more regulatory misalignment. The upshot will be that those who are favourable to driverless on-demand mobility, and control access to significant markets, may shape the fundamental industry model and technical standards. It may not be the “best” technical delivery of an autonomous vehicle that becomes widespread, it could be the one that was most convincing to those governing the streets of California, London and Singapore. A very likely manifestation is that successful operating models will be ones that regulators see as win-win situations. For instance, a fleet that is entirely battery-electric. They will also shape operating details such as how fast a vehicle can drive in certain circumstances (manufacturers will struggle to justify that their vehicles are fool proof in freezing conditions) and whether it is the passengers or a remote control centre that takes over the vehicle if the automatic systems fail.
  • Autonomy will struggle to take public transport’s 15% share whilst fares are above $0.40 per mile. Once this level is reached, the 15% or so of public transport customers could switch. Public transport loses money but it keeps fares low at the point of use and more than half of its customers are price sensitive. Without an innovation that transfers the existing public transport subsidy to on-demand customers on a means-tested basis, they will wait for a lower fare level before switching.

  • The increase in travel from people less restricted than today is likely between 5% – 10%. Increased freedom for those with restricted mobility will be welcome but will not substantially change the fleet mileage because they are a relative minority in the population and they already travel today (albeit less frequently than average).

  • Travel at $0.40 per mile is within reach. It might not even require special vehicles. Although research work continues into on-demand vehicles with capacities of 10 people and above, this may remain in the domain of pure academia. A system carrying an average of three people at a time could still be profitable and use the same vehicles for solitary customers paying a higher price.

  • A price structure similar to UberX versus UberPool is likely to persist. Creating a single fare level ignores some of the fundamental dynamics of human choice. In general, people don’t like to share if they can afford it. Therefore, it is more likely that richer people will choose to pay more to ride alone or with close family and friends.

  • Governments are going to face some tough decisions on public transport eventually. If on-demand services can match the $0.40 per mile price point as we forecast then customers will adopt on-demand due to its lower overall travel time, door-to-door service and additional convenience (“remember the olden days when we actually used to stand in the bus?”). This will be a mixed blessing for governments. On the one hand, they can remove the substantial subsidies currently paid to public transport operators. On the other, vested interests (those losing their jobs — from station masters to route-planning bureaucrats) and political idealists (who hate the idea of the private sector running transport) will lobby not to abandon public provision of services. They will have more success in some countries and cities than others.

What does this mean? The adoption of on-demand mobility is going to depend primarily on cost as long as regulators don’t get in the way. Although adoption scenarios vary in timing by a decade due to variation in regulatory and consumer preference, there is a route to $0.40 per mile across regions. Mass adoption will considerably reduce vehicle sales, so for carmakers the exact timing is academic — they should begin planning for massive capacity reduction. An industrial purchasing base may support fewer brands too (aircraft, oil service suppliers, mobile phone infrastructure builders point in this direction). Suppliers will worry too. For everyone else? Chauffeurs for all (in time)! Catch up on sleep, start a food blog for pets or maybe just take in the scenery.

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 8th May to 14th May 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week? It’s a bit of a nerdy one but the comments by Mark Reuss saying that GM expect to meet their cost target of $100/kWh for battery cells earlier than expected feels significant. Electrification doves will shrug their shoulders and say “I told you so” but when one of the biggest car companies says that electrification cost is coming down faster than they expected, others will take note.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • Said that it had record sales in April of 192,494, an increase of 7.4% year-over-year. Sales of electrified vehicles rose 82.7% YoY to over 25,000 units. The Chinese market was the main driver of growth. (..)
  • Announced an agreement with the City of Hamburg to form a strategic partnership concerning urban mobility. As a part of this, the Hamburg fleet of DriveNow vehicles will expand to 550 cars by 2019 (400 pure electric, 150 PHEV) and the city will provide 1,150 charging points. (..)
  • Media reported that BMW was planning to raise production capacity to 3 million units by 2020. (..)
  • Said that it has not made any changes to its plans for production in Mexico. (..)
  • CEO Harald Krüger called sustainability “a marathon” in his introductory comments to the AGM. He also said that sustainable mobility “thrives wherever there is a combination of three factors: customer, legislation and industrialisation”. He also promised small-scale fuel cell vehicle production in 2021. (..)

Daimler

  • Mercedes will no longer pursue certification for their diesel engines in the USA, based on the very small market share for the technology and the increased difficulty in obtaining regulatory approvals. This affects 2017 and future model years. (..)
  • Launched a platform for e-identity and data services in partnership with HERE, Allianz (an insurance company), Axel Springer (a media company), Deutsche Bank and CORE (a think tank). The service aims to provide a “master key” that will allow people to register across a number of different providers with the same identity. (..)
  • Said that its Car2Go car sharing scheme had seen a significant increase in “cross-border” rentals in Q1 2017 with 33,000 journeys taken by customers visiting from other European countries using the local Car2Go service. (..)
  • The Mercedes brand will open a global digital delivery hub in Lisbon, Portugal. The brand says that Lisbon is “the place to be” for the digital world. (..)

FCA

  • Announced a recall of around 1.25 million trucks in the USA. The recall is to fix software that may cause safety equipment to fail to deploy in the event of an accident. (..)
  • Will recall around 1,800 Jeep vehicles in Russia. This is a different recall to the one announced at the end of March. (..)

Ford

  • Saw increased pressure on CEO Mark Fields due to the company’s poor stock price performance since he took over. Media reports speculated on the motives for a reported scheduled extension of a board meeting in order for board members to question Fields on the company’s strategy but it was unclear if this was something other than normal practice. (..)
  • Ford of Europe, Middle East and Africa CEO Jim Farley called for ideas to reduce the number of cars in cities saying “we must work on how to take cars out of the system when there is an alternative, more sustainable solution”. (..)
  • Ford of Europe, Middle East and Africa CEO Jim Farley said that UK trade deals with Turkey and South Africa were “equally important” to a post-Brexit trading agreement between the UK and EU. He also said that a transition period would be “really critical for the future of our investments in the UK”. (..)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Volvo’s CEO said that the company was updating its business model due to the changing business environment and that other companies needed to do likewise. In particular he cited the consumer desire for “safer, more sustainable and convenient cars” and that Volvo recognised the limitations of the internal combustion engine. (..)
  • Said that it will build a new R&D centre in Hangzhou, China at a cost of around €830 million. Geely also said that it is aiming for Level 3 automation of vehicles by 2019. (..)
  • Purchased a 30% stake in Danish bank Saxo bank, primarily from the co-founder. Geely hopes to find synergies that allow development of financial services. (..)
  • Volvo Cars received a rating upgrade from Standard & Poors. The rating moved rom BB with a positive outlook to BB+ with a stable outlook. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Cadillac’s President gave an interview where he said that the brand was growing in line with plan and that moving the headquarters to New York had been a success. (..)
  • Announced that layoffs at its Delta township plant would be lower than previously speculated (about 600 jobs will be lost rather than the 1,100 figure from March). (..)
  • Said that it was making better than expected progress on reducing battery cost. GM said that against a previous target of $100 per kWh for a battery cell by 2022, GM’s head of product development Mark Reuss said “we’ll be there before then, I know we will”. Reuss also said that GM is trying to reduce the Bolt’s weight in order to have the same range with fewer battery cells. (..)

Hyundai / Kia

  • Lost an appeal against a (March 2017) recall decision by the South Korean transport ministry. The companies will now have to recall around 240,000 between them. (..)
  • Hyundai subsidiary Hyundai Wia will end its turbocharger joint venture with IHI and will take over the partnership’s plant in Seosan, South Korea. (..)

Nissan (including Mitsubishi)

  • Mitsubishi Motors announced results for financial year 2016. Global sales of 926,000 units was a 12% fall year-over-year. Full year revenues of 1.9 trillion yen were down 16% YoY. Full year operating profit was 5.1 billion yen with a net loss of 198.5 billion yen. Despite the losses, the performance in the last six months was seen as positive progress after the fuel economy crisis that lead to Mitsubishi’s rescue by Nissan. (..)
  • The CEO of Mitsubishi Motors said that he will stay in post for the 2017 financial year and has not yet decided on his future beyond that. (..)
  • Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn said that it was “good news” that Emmanuel Macron had been elected president of France. Macron was the architect of the move by the French state to purchase a sufficient stake in Renault to force the Florange law terms for double voting rights for long term shareholders to pass. (..)
  • Nissan announced 2016 financial year results. Global sales were 5.63 million units. Revenue of 11.72 trillion yen was down 3.9% year-over-year. Operating profit of 724 million yen was down 6.4% YoY. Nissan said that the profit and revenue falls were more than explained by exchange and that adjusting for this the YoY performance would have been revenue up 6.4% and profit up 29.1%. The company also gave an outlook for the current financial year. It expects sales to increase to 5.83 million units but operating profits to fall to 685 billion yen. The profit drop was mainly explained as being due to higher raw material costs and exchange volatility.  (..)
  • Confirmed that the Nissan Sunderland plant had experienced problems due to the “WannaCry” cyber attack but that there was “no major impact”. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • Announced further increases in personnel at Sochaux to deal with demand for the 3008 SUV as well as expected orders for Opel / Vauxhall’s Grandland X. The plant will recruit a further 1,000 people who will staff a 28 hour weekend shift running from Friday to Sunday. Product rate of 3008 will increase from 700 to 1,000 per day as a result. Union representatives have expressed concern that there will be too many temporary positions at the plant. (..)
  • Had a tax incentive of around €19 million approved by the Slovak government to support PSA’s investment of about €165 million in its factory there. (..)
  • Received shareholder approval for the purchase of Opel and Vauxhall. (..)

Renault

  • Shut down some sites in response to the global “WannaCry” cyber attack. Although Renault did not state which sites were affected, off-the-record sources mentioned Sandouville, Batilly, Dacia’s plant in Mioveni and Novo Mesto amongst others. (..)
  • Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn said that it was “good news” that Emmanuel Macron had been elected president of France. Macron was the architect of the move by the French state to purchase a sufficient stake in Renault to force the Florange law terms for double voting rights for long term shareholders to pass. (..)
  • The Renault Duster scored zero stars in recent global NCAP crash test. (..)
  • Renault’s senior vice president for electric vehicles said that mobility will evolve from car ownership to purchasing a service but that adoption rates would vary by country and the “same amount of cars” would be needed. (..)

Suzuki

  • Announced results for 2016 financial year. Consolidated net sales of 2.169 trillion yen were down 0.3% year-over-year. Operating income of 266.7 billion yen was up 36.5% YoY. Outlook for the current year is an increase in net sales of 7.3% YoY but a reduction in operating income of 10% YoY due to “investments for growth”. (..)
  • Suzuki will invest a further 100 billion yen in its Indian operation to increase production by installing a third line in its Gujarat plant. This is on top of investments for a second line which is not scheduled for launch until 2019. (..)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • Said that global wholesales fell in April. Total sales of 73,691 units were 9% down year-over-year. JLR sales fell slightly to 41,923 units, down about 2% YoY. The main reason for the group’s drop was commercial vehicles and the Tata Daewoo range where sales fell 36% YoY. (..)

 Tesla

  • Started taking orders for its solar roof tiles. The proffered warranty period is infinity or the lifetime of the house. (..)
  • Used its blog to publicise its efforts to improve health and safety in its Freemont plant as part of an effort to stop the UAW campaign for worker representation from gaining momentum. (..)
  • Announced it will offer a service to improve local grids through putting Powerwall and Powerpack batteries into people’s homes and then connecting them. Both the homeowners and the company that owns the batteries will be able to use them for demand smoothing. Tesla already has two pilot projects (50 – 100 units) underway and announced a 2,000 unit project with Green Mountain Power. (..)

Toyota

  • Reported results for the 2016 financial year. Vehicle sales of 8.971 million units were up 3.3% year-over-year. Revenue of 27.6 trillion yen ($256 billion) was down 2.8% YoY. Operating Income of 1.99 trillion yen ($18.5 billion) was down 30.1%. The forecast for the current year is for vehicle sales of 8.9 million, revenue of 27.5 trillion yen and operating income of 1.6 trillion yen. The explanation for the lower profits were increased incentives in the US market and exchange rate losses from a stronger yen. (..)
  • Announced a collaboration with Nvidia to develop artificial intelligence technologies for driverless cars. (..)
  • Said that it was on track with the launch of its Mexico plant. (..)
  • Took part in a very small funding round for a Japanese flying car company. Toyota invested 40 million yen. (..)

VW Group

  • Saw continued coverage of investor and media unhappiness at VW’s refusal to publish a final report into the diesel crisis based on the investigations of legal practice Jones Day into VW’s internal processes and documentation. VW say that no final report exists. (..)
  • Reported Group sales for April were down 1.4% year-over-year. Western Europe and Asia Pacific were down. North America as a whole was down by sales in the USA improved. Central and Eastern Europe and South America saw sales gains. The drop was primarily down to the VW and Audi brands where lost sales more than offset gains by Porsche and SEAT. (..)
  • CEO Mueller said at the AGM that VW was holding talks with battery suppliers in Europe and China and would disclose more details soon. (..)
  • Denied that the pay of Works Council member Bernd Osterloh was inappropriately high as it came under investigation from German prosecutors over the matter. Part of the explanation for his remuneration level of several hundred thousand euros each year was that Osterloh has turned down more lucrative job opportunities in order to remain a Works Council member. (..)
  • Reported to have ceased development of its 10-speed automatic and dual clutch transmissions. The explanation given was that this type of transmission was for more powerful engines and volume projections had shrunk. (..)
  • Media reports said that VW’s chief in France had resigned after conflicts with his management. (..)
  • US regulator the National Labor Relations Board has filed an unfair labor practices complaint against VW relating to treatment of employees at its Tennessee plant. The complaint alleges that VW penalised health insurance premiums and shift patterns of workers who supported union recognition. (..)
  • Saw reports that the Chairman and CEO may be under-investigate for market manipulation by not reporting the diesel crisis quickly enough. The allegation is that they should have told Porsche SE shareholders (where they held executive roles) about the scale of VW’s problems sooner. (..)
  • Denied speculation that it could have plans to sell either Bentley or Bugatti. (..)

Other

  • Subaru announced financial results for the year ending March 2017. Unit sales of 1.065 million were up 11.1% year-over-year and marked the first time the company has sold in excess of 1 million units. Revenues of 3.3 trillion yen were up 2.6% YoY as exchange losses and higher costs partially offset the volume growth. Operating income of 411 billion yen was down 27.4% YoY to due exchange losses and cost performance (R&D and admin). Outlook for the current year is for sales to rises to 1.106 million units but profits to stay about the same. (..)
  • Great Wall announced changes to its leadership with a new chairman, vice chairwoman and GM. (..). The company also said that it was looking to build a plant in North America. (More…)
  • SAIC announced that it will open an innovation centre in Israel. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • April sales in China of 2.08 million vehicles were down 2.2% year-over-year. Light vehicle sales of 1.72 million were down 3.7% YoY. On a year to date basis, the market has grown YoY by 4.6% (2.5% for light vehicles). (..)
  • Russia market sales of passenger vehicles and LCVs increased by 6.9% year-over-year. (..)
  • EU states agreed on new draft rules governing vehicle approval. Under the draft rules, cheats could be fined up to €30,000 per offending vehicle. (..)
  • A report by India’s policy commission — chaired by prime minister — suggested restricting the number of registrations for new petrol and diesel cars (with a lottery allocation) and encouraging electric shared taxis instead of car ownership. (..)
  • Draft proposals for ways to improve air quality by the UK government included options for a scrappage scheme aimed at taking 15,000 of the worst-polluting vehicles off the road and replacing them with electric cars at a cost of around £8,000 per vehicle. A scheme could apparently be implemented within two years. (..)
  • The UK’s Finance and Leasing association said that the market for commercial vehicle finance was continuing to grow and was up 12% year-over-year in March (these figures lag the registration data). (..). Consumer new car finance grew by 13% in value and 5% in volume YoY. (More…)

Suppliers

  • Continental expressed confidence in the future of the internal combustion engine, saying that being a Tier 1 supplier of ICE parts could remain an attractive business for many years to come. (..). Continental’s CFO also said that electric cars would not “have an economic advantage over combustion engines until 2025”. (More…)
  • Magna reported Q1 2017 financial results. Revenues of $9.4 billion were up 5% year-over-year. Adjusted EBIT of $831 million was 19% up YoY. (..)
  • Employees of troubled French supplier GM&S took over the company’s factory in Creuse and began destroying production machinery. This is the latest in a series of increasingly desperate moves by the GM&S workforce who are hoping to avoid a liquidation of the company (likely to be announced on 23rd May). (..)
  • The CEO of Valeo said that the emergence of three major trends at once: electric vehicles, connected vehicles and autonomy, was rare and that autonomous cars would be on the roads by 2020. (..)
  • Nvidia highlighted efforts to use artificial intelligence to go beyond driving an autonomous vehicle and start tailoring the experience to the individual passengers. The company’s blog profiled a product called Affectiva that tracks facial expressions to decide how the passenger is feeling. (..)
  • Nvidia and Toyota will collaborate to develop artificial intelligence technologies for driverless cars. (..)
  • Autoliv said that one of its directors, Aicha Evans, would not stand for re-election and it was choosing to reduce the size of the Board (to nine members). (..)
  • Umicore said that it will invest €300 million to increase production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles by six times from its current level. The investments will be in Asia — at plants in South Korea and China. (..)
  • Connected vehicle technology provider DMI said that it would acquire Lochbridge. The companies already had a close relationship. (..)
  • Hyundai subsidiary Hyundai Wia will end its turbocharger joint venture with IHI and will take over the partnership’s plant in Seosan, South Korea. (..)
  • Panasonic said that it expects growth in its automotive business to drive a more than 20% growth in profits this year. (..)
  • Roush Industries announced that it would create a new engineering centre to work on self-driving technology and employ at 150 engineers to work there. (..)

Ride-Hailing & Car Sharing

  • Uber received a ruling from the European Court of Justice that it should be regulated as a transport company. The ruling can be challenged and it is not clear what the implications for Uber’s business model would be. (..)
  • Daimler said that its Car2Go car sharing scheme had seen a significant increase in “cross-border” rentals in Q1 2017 with 33,000 journeys by customers visiting from other European countries using the local Car2Go service. (..)
  • BMW announced an agreement with the City of Hamburg to form a strategic partnership concerning urban mobility. As a part of this, the Hamburg fleet of DriveNow vehicles will expand to 550 cars by 2019 (400 pure electric, 150 PHEV) and the city will provide 1,150 charging points. (..)
  • Ola announced a partnership with Bharti Airtel, which media speculated was in part motivated by the high level of defaults Ola drivers are making on their car lease payments. (..)

 Driverless / Autonomy

  • The dispute between Uber and Waymo about the former’s alleged use of illegally obtained Waymo technology will go to trial. Uber had tried to frame the issue as a dispute over an employee contract and was seeking arbitration. (..)
  • Researchers demonstrated how autonomous vehicles can smooth traffic flows by releasing a video of a vehicle trained to brake and accelerate in such a way that gradually ends a stop-and-go traffic problem (performed on a closed course). (..)
  • An update to the German Road Traffic Act was approved that allows autonomous vehicles. The vehicle will be allowed to operate in autonomous eyes-off mode if a driver is ready to take back control if necessary. The law mandates that manufacturers will be responsible for accidents in autonomous mode and will be revisited in two years’ time to learn from technological developments. (..)
  • Geely said that it is aiming for Level 3 automation of vehicles by 2019. (..)
  • Toyota and Nvidia announced a collaboration to develop artificial intelligence technologies for driverless cars. (..)
  • New York state announced a year-long pilot program that will allow operators to apply for special licenses to test autonomous vehicles onto the roads. (..)
  • Media profiled South Korea’s K-City, a test area billed as the world’s largest test site for driverless cars. (..)
  • Uber announced the creation of a new self-driving research group in Toronto, Canada. They will augment the existing teams in Pittsburgh and San Francisco. (..)
  • A report by think tank RethinkX forecast that 95% of miles travelled by 2030 would be through offerings from Transport As A Service (TaaS) providers. (..)
  • A report by market research company Frost & Sullivan forecast level 4/5 autonomous vehicles on the road “as early as 2020”, in line with announcements made by some manufacturers. (..)

Electrification

  • Continental’s CFO said that electric cars would not “have an economic advantage over combustion engines until 2025”. (..)
  • A study of German industrial companies found that about 50% see it as very likely or quite likely that they will purchase electric vehicles within the next ten years. The current problems reported were primarily the lack of range and secondly the cost. (..)
  • GM said that it was making better than expected progress on reducing battery cost. GM said that against a previous target of $100 per kWh for a battery cell by 2022, GM’s head of product development Mark Reuss said “we’ll be there before then, I know we will”. Reuss also said that GM is trying to reduce the Bolt’s weight in order to have the same range with fewer battery cells. (..)
  • US state Oregon saw new draft legislation introduced to the state senate calling for special incentives for car salespeople to push electric vehicles. A bonus of $250 would be given for each electric car sale but electric-only stores (e.g. Tesla) would be excluded. (..)
  • UK roadside charging company InstaVolt said that it would buy 200 ChargePoint Express Plus stations for a nationwide network in the UK. The stations are capable of charging at rates up to 400 kW (Tesla superchargers are at 120-135kW). (..)

Other

  • Continued speculation into Apple’s strategy for vehicle technology including the purpose of its mysterious Berlin office. (..)
  • Hertz’s profit, debt pile and stock performance came under media and analyst criticism. (..)

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 1st May to 7th May 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week? Very simple this time… we’ve been waiting for Renault’s new strategy for a while and Carlos Ghosn’s comments this week about a 7% profit margin in the early 2020s indicate that it might be breaking cover soon. Wonder if when their new strategy emerges, Renault will aspire to become a mobility company in future? Just like Ford, PSA, Volkswagen… the list goes on.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

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Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • Reported Q1 2017 detailed financial results. Unit deliveries were 587,237 units, up 5.3% year-over-year. Group revenue of €23.5 billion was up 12.4% YoY. Group profit before tax of €3.0 billion was up almost 27% YoY, largely due to the gain on sale and revaluation of BMW’s HERE stake and increased profits in China. (..)
  • Said that its plant in Dingolfing would produce the BMW iNEXT from 2021 and said that it was working on manufacturing processes that would allow ICE-only, hybrid and full-BEV products to be built on the same facilities. BMW re-iterated that it expects 15% – 25% of its sales to be from electrified vehicles by 2025 (this figure includes hybrid and full BEVs) (..)
  • Saw media reporting on its efforts at culture change. BMW is running a program that attempts to convince employees that electrification and autonomous driving are key trends for the future and will cause substantial changes in the way that the company works (story was from last week but not included in that review). (..)
  • Received coverage for its efforts to improve the user experience of car-sharing and reduce the time it takes to access a vehicle. (..)
  • Said that it has made adequate risk provisions for a fall in residual car values and was “well protected”. (..)

Daimler

  • Daimler’s Moovel app launched a service in collaboration with Karlsruhe Transport Authority KVV (a city in Germany) to offer information on various types of transport solution (trains, trams, bikes etc). Moovel said that it was aiming to offer a “white label solution” for transport operators. (..)

FCA

  • Said that sales fell year-over-year in the USA in April. (..)

Ferrari

  • Reported Q1 2017 results. Shipments of 2,003 units (up 6.4% year-over-year). Net revenue of €821 million (up 20.4% YoY). Adjusted EBIT of €177 million (up 46%). (..)
  • Said that it could produce and sell more than 10,000 cars annually. (..)

Ford

  • Said that April US sales of 214,695 vehicles were down 7.2% year-over-year. (..)
  • Said that it was temporarily laying off 130 workers at its Ohio plan due to slowing demand for trucks. (..)

 Geely (includes Volvo)

  • London Taxis International are celebrating the final production of TX4 models. These are intended to be the company’s final diesel powered cars and in future the range will be 100% electrified (initially using gasoline hybrids). (..)
  • Volvo reported April sales of 46,895 cars, an increase of 10.5% year-over-year. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Said that April sales in the USA fell by almost 6% year-over-year. (..)
  • Announced the deconsolidation of its Venezuelan business due to the seizure of its plant and said that it expected this to result in a charge of “up to approximately $100 million”. (..)
  • Made a further statement about the proposal from Greenlight to split its stock into different categories saying that it was still not in favour (Greenlight had accused GM of not being objective and subsequently sent a letter to GM’s shareholders saying that their proposal would improve the stock price, which could be very important in the future). (..)
  • Opel confirmed that the next-generation Corsa is being designed on the PSA B-Car platform. This could allow the vehicle to be built in several factories if necessary. (..)
  • Announced a new program called Maven Gig. The idea is for drivers to rent cars that will allow them to carry out delivery services such as for packages or food. Maven has relationships with GrubHub (food delivery) and Instacart (groceries) amongst others. (..)

Honda

  • Saw a fall in April US sales of 7% year-over-year. (..)

Hyundai / Kia

  • Said that April sales in the USA were 1% up year-over-year (..)

Mazda

  • Saw a 7.8% year-over-year drop in US sales in April. (..)

Nissan

  • Saw a 1.5% year-over-year drop in US sales in April. (..)
  • Launched a pilot project in Italy with Enel Energi and IIT for vehicle to grid technology that allows electric cars that have been parked and plugged in to supply energy to the grid at times of high demand. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • Opel confirmed that the next-generation Corsa is being designed on the PSA B-Car platform. This could allow the vehicle to be built in several factories if necessary. (..)
  • Said that it will form a strategic partnership with nuTonomy to test autonomous vehicles in Singapore. nuTonomy already has a test program running in the city state, thus far using Renault Zoe vehicles. The program with PSA will use Peugeot 3008 SUVs and aims to launch by September. (..)
  • Received media coverage of its attempts to improve the dealer experience for customers and make the sales process feel more modern. (..)
  • Faurecia and ZF announced a strategic partnership for interior and safety technologies. The collaboration will involve no capital exchange and supports Faurecia’s “cockpit of the future” strategy. (..)
  • PSA will invest €144 million in its Madrid plant to build a new model from 2020 and produce at least 100,000 units per year. The vehicle was not named but will be on the CMP platform and will guarantee the plant’s future to 2025. As one of PSA’s smallest plants, it had looked as though Madrid was at risk following the Opel merger. (..)
  • Launched a project called “GridMotion” with the Technical University of Denmark to evaluate real world savings from vehicle to grid technologies, in particular varying the time of day that the vehicle charges and discharges. (..)

Renault

  • Held an autonomous vehicle drive event where it told journalists that it would like to launch a (limited) public service in 2020. (..)
  • Carlos Ghosn said that Renault’s aim was to realise an operating margin of around 7% in 2022. (..)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • JLR CEO Ralph Speth gave an interview where he defended modern diesel engines. (..)

 Tesla

  • Reported Q1 2017 detailed financial results. Automotive revenue of $2.289 billion was up 123% YoY. Automotive gross margin was 27.4%, The business (including the newly consolidated Solar City) made a net loss of $(397) million. Give an update on Model 3 saying it hoped to be producing 5,000 per week “ at some point in 2017” and have increased production to 10,000 units per week at “some point in 2018” (..)
  • Media reported on the importance of a $360 per share level for Tesla — it would able the company to swap debt for equity. (..)
  • Saw concerns over customer deposits dropping quarter-over-quarter. (..)
  • Elon Musk said that the Model Y would be launched in either late 2019 or 2020 and use a different platform and more automated production line than the Model 3. (..), he also said that he believes level 5 autonomy will be a reality within the next two years. (More…)
  • Two Tesla executives have been listed as officers at Redwood materials, a recycling company, amid speculation that Tesla had taken a stake in the firm. (..)
  • Tesla owner forums revealed that Tesla have programmed car electronics so that once they have undergone a high number of supercharger hours (superchargers are rated at around 135 kW), the charge rate is permanently capped. In a widely-used example, a vehicle had its charge rate capped at 90 kW, which Tesla technicians told the owner was in order to protect the battery. (..)
  • Updated owner terms and conditions to allow data sharing of “short video clips” in order to improve autonomous driving technology. Tesla said it would store the data in such a way it was impossible to know which car it was from. (..)
  • Media reported on the importance of a $360 per share level for Tesla — it would able the company to swap debt for equity. (..)
  • Saw concerns over customer deposits dropping quarter-over-quarter. (..)

Toyota

  • Toyota’s North America CEO, Jim Lentz, said that OEMs in the US were continuing to push sales on the basis that a $1 trillion stimulus program supported by the Trump administration would “add 800,000 units” if approved. (..). He also said that NAFTA should not be rescinded, but could perhaps be improved. (More…)
  • Reported that its US sales in April were down 4.4% year-over-year. (..)
  • Said that has invested $154 million in its Michigan, USA operations in the last two years. (..)

VW Group

  • Reported Q1 2017 detailed financial results. Deliveries of 2.495 million units were down 0.5% year-over-year. Group revenue of €56.2 billion was up 10.3% YoY. Group operating profit (excluding special items) of €4.4 billion was up almost 40% YoY. (..)
  • Volkswagen brand held a brand update day showing progress on product launch and footprint realignment. Part of the materials showed a more detailed cost reduction plan: 7.5% productivity improvement in 2017, 7.5% in 2018 and then 5% in 2019 and 2020. (..)
  • Signed an agreement with operators of compressed natural gas (CNG) filling stations announcing their commitment to the “extension of CNG mobility”. (..)
  • Increased incentives in the USA to try and sell 2015MY diesel stock (vehicles that are still brand new but had to be held for sale whilst they were repaired). Some vehicles are now available with 72 months interest free and a $5,000 discount. (..)

Other

  • Chinese company Beijing WKW (part owned by German firm WKW Erbsloh Automotive GmbH said it would invest up to €1.13 billion to build an electric car factory in Lower Saxony, Germany. Analysts were sceptical of the company’s ability to fund and operate such a venture. (..)
  • Subaru reported that its US sales in April were up 4% year-over-year. (..)
  • Mahindra and Mahindra has stopped selling its e1o electric car in the UK due to low sales, according to a Reuters report. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • German vehicle sales in April 2017 were 341,385 units (down 9.7% year-over-year), of which 290,697 cars (down 8.0% year-over-year). Year to date total sales are 1.320 million units (up 1.6%), of which 1.135 million are cars (up 2.5%) (..)
  • UK car sales in April 2017 were down 19.8% year-over-year. Some of this was due to reduced selling days and possible pull-forward of sales into March ahead of taxation changes. On a year-to-date basis, sales are up 1.1%. (..) LCV sales also fell in April (18.8%) and are down on a year-to-date basis (4.9%).  (More…)
  • US manufacturers saw lower sales and analysts questioning whether the US market will plateau or fall. (..)
  • Spanish car sales for April were up 1.1% year-over-year to 101,375 units. Year-to-date sales of 409,286 units are up 6.1%. (..)
  • Brazilian vehicle sales for April were down 17% year-over-year. (..)

Suppliers

  • Magna announced the creation of a Technology Advisory Council, lead by its Chief Technology Officer to help “accelerate the execution of Magna’s technology and business objectives”. Council members include Tony Fadell (iPod/iPhone “inventor” and founder of Nest) and Paul Mascarenasis (ex-Chief Technical Officer at Ford). (..)
  • Faurecia and ZF announced a strategic partnership for interior and safety technologies. The collaboration will involve no capital exchange and supports Faurecia’s “cockpit of the future” strategy. (..)
  • Bosch has sold its starters and generators business (7,000 employees) for around €500 million to Chinese supplier ZMJ. (..)
  • Bosch’s CEO said that politicians should stop demonising diesel technology and that whilst politicians were right to demand stricter emission limits they should be neutral on the technology choices. (..)
  • Prevent group said that it has no plans to make a full takeover bid for Grammer (in which it owns a substantial minority stake). Grammer’s management has been openly complaining about Prevent’s stake and says that it is losing business as a consequence (a dispute between VW and Prevent last year cost several days of production). (..)
  • Profits at engine maker Cummins were up 23.4% to $396 million in Q1 2017. The company also raised full year forecasts. (..)
  • Dana reported Q1 2017 results. Revenue of $1.7 billion was up 17% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $205 million was up 19% YoY. (..)
  • Delphi reported Q1 2017 results. Revenue of $4.3 billion was up 9% year-over-year. Adjusted Operating Income of $537 million was up 4% YoY. (..). They also announced that they would spin off the powertrain division into an independently listed company. (More…)

Ride-Hailing & Car Sharing

  • Avis Budget noted that it was selling more used vehicles to ride hailing drivers. (..)
  • BMW received coverage for its efforts to improve the user experience of car-sharing and reduce the time it takes to access a vehicle. (..)

Driverless / Autonomy

  • PSA said that it will form a strategic partnership with nuTonomy to test autonomous vehicles in Singapore. nuTonomy already has a test program running in the city state, thus far using Renault Zoe vehicles. The program with PSA will use Peugeot 3008 SUVs and aims to launch by September. (..)
  • Mapillary, a Swedish start-up, released a free dataset of street level images to help train driverless vehicle artificial intelligence. (..)
  • MobilEye told Reuters that the company’s maps did not need to wait for fully autonomous cars to generate revenue and would make money from SAE Level 2 and 3 systems using the technology. (..)
  • Samsung gained approval to begin testing driverless cars in South Korea. (..)
  • CEO Elon Musk said that he believes level 5 autonomy will be a reality within the next two years. (..)
  • Busmaker Proterra said that it was working on a self-driving electric bus program in Nevada. (..)
  • Self-driving start-up Renovo had a $10 million funding round which included Verizon. (..)
  • Tesla updated owner terms and conditions to allow data sharing of “short video clips” in order to improve autonomous driving technology. Tesla said it would store the data in such a way it was impossible to know which car it was from. (..)

Electrification

  • BMW Said that its plant in Dingolfing would produce the BMW iNEXT from 2021 and re-iterated that it expects 15% – 25% of its sales to be from electrified vehicles by 2025 (this figure includes hybrid and full BEVs) (..)
  • Chinese company Beijing WKW (part owned by German firm WKW Erbsloh Automotive GmbH said it would invest up to €1.13 billion to build an electric car factory in Lower Saxony, Germany. Analysts were sceptical of the comapany’s ability to fund and operate such a venture. (..)
  • Mahindra and Mahindra has stopped selling its e1o electric car in the UK due to low sales, according to a Reuters report. (..)
  • Nissan launched a pilot project in Italy with Enel Energi and IIT for vehicle to grid technology that allows electric cars that have been parked and plugged in to supply energy to the grid at times of high demand. (..)
  • PSA launched a project called “GridMotion” with the Technical University of Denmark to evaluate real world savings from vehicle to grid technologies, in particular varying the time of day that the vehicle charges and discharges. (..)

Other

  • Hamburg has become the first German city to enforce a diesel ban. The ban is not city-wide, it forbids Euro 5 and older vehicles from driving on some key roads. (..)

 

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 24th April to 30th April 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week? We’ve chosen two: (1) is the story of plucky minnows Streetscooter winning further business from VW with their conquest of fish distributor Deutsche See), (2) is French oil major Total publicly acknowledging the effect that electric cars will be having on fuel demand by the 2030’s.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • The USA (through the United States International Trade Commission — USITC) said it will investigate whether patents owned by US companies have been infringed by plastic sub-components used by BMW and others. (..)

 Daimler

  • Released its detailed financials for Q1 2017. Revenue was up 11% year over year to €38.8 billion and net profit doubled to €2.8 billion. Daimler had already pre-released headline figures on 11th (More…)
  • Whilst reporting Q1 results, Daimler said that it cannot rule out fines relating to diesel emissions. (..)
  • Daimler’s CFO said that they expect currency tailwinds of more than €500 million in 2017. (..)
  • Announced an expansion of peer-to-peer car-sharing service Croove to additional German cities. (..)
  • Was told by the KBA (German regulator) to recall 134,000 vehicles to replace air-conditioning refrigerant. (..)

Ferrari

  • CEO Sergio Marchionne said that the Ferrari line-up will continue to feature naturally aspirated V12 engines (i.e. no turbo chargers), although they will be augmented with hybrid systems. (..)

FCA

  • Reported Q1 2017 results; revenue was €27.7 billion, up 4% year-over-year. Adjusted net profit was €671 million, up 27%. (..)
  • Alphabet’s (Google) Waymo announced that its driverless car program had begun operating with (chosen) members of the public in Phoenix, Arizona (USA). The scheme uses 500 of the Chrysler Pacifica minivans Waymo has recently taken delivery of from FCA. (..)

Ford

  • Reported Q1 2017 revenue of $39.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4%. Net income of $1.6 billion was down 35% from the prior year. (..)
  • Announced five test fleets would trial 20 Transit plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) in London for the next 12 months. Ford did not provide specific details on range but said that there would be sufficient electric power for “the majority of inner-city trips”. The PHEV version of the Transit is scheduled for launch in 2019. (..)
  • Ford and GM expressed public support for President Donald Trump’s proposed tax reforms. (..)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Volvo reported Q1 profits of 3.5 billion SEK, an 11% year-over-year increase. Retail sales of 129,148 vehicles were up 7.1% year-over-year. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Reported Q1 2017 revenue of $41.2 billion, up 10.6% year-over-year and adjusted EBIT of $3.4 billion, up 27.9%. (..)
  • Ford and GM expressed public support for President Donald Trump’s proposed tax reforms. (..)
  • CEO Mary Barra tried to dampen speculation about her future (political posts may beckon) by saying she was “150%” committed to GM. (..)
  • UK unit Vauxhall was criticised by UK MPs for its slow recall of vehicles at risk of fires. (..)

Honda

  • Forecast that operating profits would fall in the current financial year by around 16% citing a stronger yen, pension plan and R&D costs. Honda expects sales volumes to rise. (..)

Hyundai / Kia

  • Reported Q1 2017 net profit of 1.33 trillion won, above analyst expectation but down year-over-year. (..)

Mazda

  • Said that it expects full year operating profit to improve 19% versus prior year. Mazda expects sales volumes to rise. (..)

Nissan

  • Carlos Ghosn ruled out a full merger of Nissan and Mitsubishi. (..)
  • Said that Nissan’s global sales and production set new records between April 2016 and March 2017. Sales and market share in Latin America were a highlight with a 6% year-over-year volume increase. (..)
  • Announced that Nissan will join Mobileye’s Road Experience Management platform that provides high-quality real time maps. The partnership has been speculated about for a while. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • PSA reported Q1 revenues (PSA only reports profits every six months) of €13.6 billion, €9.0 billion of which was generated by the automotive division (excludes the Faurecia parts division). Overall revenues were up 4.9% year over year and automotive revenue was up 2.5% (product mix of 3.7% partially offset by exchange deterioration). Vehicle sales of 729,424 were up 4.2% versus Q1 2016. (..)
  • Saw French investigating judges begin a case against it relating to diesel emissions, PSA denies any wrongdoing. (..)
  • Will reportedly recruit even more temporary employees at the Rennes plant. The number is now forecast to be around 500 people rather than the figure of 400 previously announced. (..)
  • Production of the 3008 SUV was reportedly disrupted due to a lack of parts from Czech supplier Recticel. Around 2,000 vehicles were said to have been lost with 8 half-shifts cancelled. (..)
  • Saw German media speculation that leaders of its German marketing and sales arm have been replaced because of overly-aggressive discounting. (..)

Renault

  • Q1 2017 revenues (Renault only reports profits every six months) of €13.1 billion were up 25.2% year-over-year (excluding the effect of consolidating Russian unit AVTOVAZ, like-for-like sales increased 19.7%). (..)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • Fitch upgraded the credit rating of Tata Motors to BB+ with a stable outlook. (..)

 Tesla

  • Announced that it would double the charging network in 2017 and upgrade existing stations. By the end of the year, Tesla aims to have 10,000 superchargers and 15,000 destination chargers worldwide. (..)
  • Lost its Consumer Reports top rating because it has not installed emergency braking and collision avoidance as standard. Tesla has said that it will install the capability via over the air updates and Consumer Reports may revisit its rating if that happens. (..)
  • At the Vancouver TED conference, Elon Musk teased some details of the Tesla heavy truck and said that four new Gigafactory sites could be announced in 2017. (..)
  • The founder of Grohmann (the German manufacturing engineering company that Tesla recently purchased) has left, reportedly over a dispute about the strategy for the division become exclusive to Tesla and drop existing clients including Daimler and BMW. (..)
  • Saw media speculation that it is putting the launch of the Model 3 at risk by ordering final production tools ahead of the completion of production verification steps. (..)

Toyota

  • Reported March 2017 and full year production figures. Overall production of 10.4 million vehicles was down 3.6% year-over-year. (..)
  • Announced a recall of approximately 228,000 Tacoma trucks in North America. (..)
  • Announced a relationship with the Tokyo Hire-Taxi Association to gather data that will enable the introduction of connected taxis. (..)

VW Group

  • Saw speculation that it might sell its Ducati motorbike business (a part of the Audi group), a move that was reportedly criticised by union representatives on the Works Council (..)
  • Said that it would spend about €10 billion between now and 2022 to make a 10 to 15% improvement in the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines. It will also triple its investment in electric vehicles to €9 billion. (..)
  • Audi began taking pre-orders for its electric SUV in Norway. Although the advert mentions some technical specifications, no final price is given. The deposit amount (fully refundable) is 20,000 NOK (about €2,150). (..)
  • Saw considerable lobbying by other carmakers and interest groups around the use of funds VW has committed to improve electric vehicle charging in California as part of its diesel settlement. (..)
  • VW will test electric powered heavy trucks with some autonomous capabilities by using them for internal logistics. (..)
  • Gett (in which VW has a substantial stake) will buy New York based ride sharing company Juno for $250 million (the final value will reportedly depend on future performance of the combined entity). (..)
  • German fish distributor Deutsche See will purchase a fleet of 80 Streetscooter vans. In public comments the company was openly critical of VW’s failure to provide them with an all-electric van. (..)

Other

  • Isuzu acquired a 9.9% stake in Apple International (a Japanese used car company unrelated to the smartphone manufacturer) and agreed to form a joint venture with Apple International to expand its aftersales business. (..)
  • Suzuki reported March, Q1 2017 and Fiscal Year 2016 production figures. Full year production of 3.1 million units was 4.2% higher than the prior year. Q1 2017 global production of 863,275 units was a year-over-year increase of 17.7%. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • French car registrations were down 6% year-over-year in April 2017. (..)
  • Ally Financial’s CFO said that the company is concerned about the level of inventory US dealers are carrying. (..)
  • China is looking at relaxing its rules on foreign ownership of domestic carmakers so that foreign companies could have stakes larger than 50%. (..)
  • UK trade body the SMMT said that UK domestic production was 170,691 vehicles in March, a 7.3% year-over-year increase and the highest Q1 production since 2000, CVs were slightly down. (..)
  • European trade body ACEA issued a press release stating its priorities for a Brexit settlement. The request is essentially for a continuation of today’s trading conditions. (..)
  • The USA (through the United States International Trade Commission — USITC) said it will investigate whether patents owned by US companies have been infringed by plastic sub-components used by several non-US automakers, including BMW, Toyota and Honda. (..)
  • Les Echos published an article about the decline in diesel sales, including speculation about potential citywide bans in future. (..)

Suppliers

  • Continental announced that following a strategic review of its powertrain division, it will invest more in electrification, particularly 48V add-ons for internal combustion engines. (..)
  • Denso announced its full year financial results (Denso’s financial year runs from March to March) with revenue of $40 billion, about flat from prior year and operating profit of $2.9 billion, a 4.9% year over year increase. (..)
  • Denso announced a collaboration with electronics and ceramics company IBIDEN to develop high performance and low cost exhaust systems. (..)
  • Johnson Controls announced Q1 2017 results. Net income of $473 million is about 10% improved year-over-year. (..)
  • Visteon reported Q1 sales of $810 million (slightly up on prior year) and net income of $63 million, more than triple the $19 million from the same period in 2016. Visteon reported it had won $1.5 billion in new business, mainly infotainment. (..)
  • Borg Warner reported Q1 2017 financial results. Revenue of $2.4 billion was up 6.1% year-over-year. Full year guidance of revenue in the range $8.2 – $9.0 billion was reaffirmed. (..)
  • Honeywell issued a rebuttal to calls from an activist shareholder to separate its aerospace division. (..)
  • Michelin said that it would recruit 250 employees in France — the recruitment is mainly to replace retirements. (..)
  • Nissan and Mobileye announced that Nissan will join Mobileye’s Road Experience Management platform that provides high-quality real time maps. The partnership has been speculated for a while. (..)
  • Pirelli said that it had moved forward its planned IPO to Q4 2017 and its current owner, China National Chemical Corp, may reduce its stake below 50%. (..)
  • SNCF intends to sell STVA the automotive logistics business that it owns. (..)
  • Schaeffler said that it was expecting its industrial division to show improved growth in Q1 2017. (..)
  • SiriusXM will purchase Automatic Labs Inc, a supplier of connected vehicle services. (..)
  • Borg Warner reported Q1 2017 financial results. Revenue of $2.4 billion was up 6.1% year-over-year. Full year guidance of revenue in the range $8.2 – $9.0 billion was reaffirmed. (..)
  • Honeywell issued a rebuttal to calls from an activist shareholder to separate its aerospace division. (..)

Ride-Hailing & Car Sharing

  • Didi Chuxing said that it has raised a further $5.5 billion, valuing it at more than $50 billion. (..)
  • Uber has reportedly changed the role of Anthony Levandowski (Otto founder, ex-Google employee and current lawsuit target). Although he will remain with Uber he will not be working on LIDAR (one of the key areas where Google says its IP has been infringed). (..)
  • Recently launched Californian ride sharing app RydenGo was issued with a cease-and-desist order because of improper licencing, even though it has not yet commenced operations (it is allowing users to sign up). (..)
  • Daimler announced an expansion of peer-to-peer car-sharing service Croove to additional German cities. (..)
  • Uber announced plans for airborne ride-sharing in Dallas and Dubai in 2020. There are 5 companies who are competing to supply the vehicles. (..)
  • Gett will buy New York based ride sharing company Juno for $250 million (the final value will reportedly depend on future performance of the combined entity). (..)

 Driverless / Autonomy

  • Alphabet’s (Google) Waymo announced that its driverless car program had begun operating with (chosen) members of the public in Phoenix, Arizona (USA). The scheme uses 500 of the Chrysler Pacifica minivans Waymo has recently taken delivery of from FCA. (..)
  • Amazon has reportedly created an in-house team to look at driverless technologies. (..)
  • Autonomous vehicle manufacturer Navya (specialising in driverless mini-buses so far) announced it will open a new factory in Lyon. Factory capacity will be around 200 vehicles per year (against 2016 actuals of 25 vehicles). (..)
  • Amber Mobility, a Dutch start-up, wants to begin operation of driverless vehicles for business-to-business use in Eindhoven (Netherlands) by mid-2018. (..)
  • An autonomous testing consortium in the UK said that it will trial driverless cars on UK roads and motorways in 2019. (..)
  • VW will test electric powered heavy trucks with some autonomous capabilities by using them for internal logistics. (..)

Electrification

  • Saw considerable lobbying by other carmakers and interest groups around the use of funds VW has committed to improve electric vehicle charging in California as part of its diesel settlement. (..)
  • Media speculation on the impact of the intended tapering on US EV purchase incentives (currently $7,500 per vehicle) as EVs become widespread (the tapering is on a manufacturer-by-manufacturer basis). One analyst was quoted as saying that incentives were supporting up to 3/8 of the market volume. (..)
  • The chief economist of French oil company Total said that EVs may be almost a third of car sales by the end of the 2020s, causing demand for oil-based fuels to peak in the 2030s. (..)
  • VW said that it will triple its investment in electric vehicles to €9 billion by 2022. (..)
  • Charging network Fastned has launched its first 14 sites in Germany. (..)
  • Austrian energy and fuel station company OMV intends to buy a 40% share of charging supplier Smatrics. (..)
  • German fish distributor Deutsche See will purchase a fleet of 80 Streetscooter vans. In public comments the company was openly critical of VW’s failure to provide them with an all-electric van. (..)

Other

  • US car sales company Carvana (which allows customers to buy cars in “no hassle” transactions from a website and giant vending machines) saw its price drop in post-IPO trading. (..)

 

 

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 17th April to 23rd April 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week is chosen for emotional reasons: JLR announced production of their first petrol engines in Wolverhampton and we know lots of the people involved who’ve worked so hard to get this factory up and running.

Also, German OEM profits are exceeding expectations and FCA’s sales in Europe are on a tear. Peak auto any time soon?

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • Announced via an ad-hoc release that Q1 2017 profit before tax (€3.005 billion) and revenues were above market expectations. The ad-hoc release was made ahead of scheduled reporting due to German financial reporting rules. Daimler and VW also had financial results in Q1 2017 that were significantly better than expected. (..)
  • Expects BMW sales in China to increase about 10% this year. (..)
  • Said that in China its ChargeNow subsidiary would have a total of 2,500 chargers in 15 cities by the end of 2017, a 50% rate of growth. (..)

Daimler

  • According to board member Hubertus Troska, Daimler is in talks with various Chinese ride hailing firms including Didi around possible cooperation. (..)
  • CEO Dieter Zetsche said that he sees the possibility of further expansion in local Chinese production capacity. (..)
  • Daimler said that it is still evaluating possible semi-conductor suppliers for the processor units of its autonomous vehicles. (..)

FCA

  • Reported that its sales in Europe were up 18.2% in Q1 2017 on a year over year basis. Market share was 50 basis points higher. (..)

Ford

  • Ford researchers published a paper showing a route to charging prismatic lithium ion cells to 85% in 2 minutes and 100% in 3 minutes (the rest did not reflect a full battery lifetime). (..)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • New brand Lynk & Co will postpone its launch date to 2019 with its first sites being in Berlin. (..)
  • Volvo said that its first electric car will launch in 2019 and be produced in China with the global market being served via Chinese exports. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Reported the seizure of its plant in Venezuela, with the result that it has now ceased operations in the country. The company will now try to separate its 2,678 workers. (..)

Hyundai / Kia

  • Said at the Shanghai auto show that Kia will announce a plan for a factory in India “soon” (..)
  • The chairman of its Chinese joint venture said that the Hyundai brand in China is facing “severe market challenges” due to the “complicated political, economic and competitive market environment”. (..)

Nissan

  • Aims to sell 1.4 million vehicles in China this year. (..)
  • Will build a second “advanced recharging corridor” in the USA with partner EVgo. The route will create charging stations between Boston and Washington D.C. 50 chargers will be installed and the sites will be capable of 150kW chargers but initial installation will be 50kW per charger. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • Employees of troubled supplier GM&S returned to PSA’s Poissy plant to try and blockade it. The day before, GM&S employees attempted to occupy PSA’s showroom in central Paris. (..)
  • CEO Tavares said at the Shanghai auto show that he was unhappy with the performance of its Chinese JV and that the unit needs “a new business model” and “much more cost reduction”. (..)

Renault

  • Saw speculation in the French press about the effects of the French state gaining double voting rights in Renault (because of the length of time it has been a shareholder) and recalling that Emmanuel Macron was one of the architects of the action taken by the French state to purchase sufficient shares to force Renault’s acceptance of the Florange Act. Once the double voting rights mature, the state will have around 37% voting rights. (..)
  • Employees of troubled supplier GM&S attempted to occupy Renault’s showroom in central Paris. (..)
  • Expects to double sales of the Renault brand in China to more than 70,000 units in 2017. (..)
  • Reportedly looking at a plan to produce an electric vehicle in China through its local partner Dongfeng, without a joint venture. The idea would be that Dongfeng going it alone might be able to more aggressively reduce costs. (..)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • Announced that production had begun of its new 2.0l petrol engine in its Wolverhampton engine plant. (..)

 Tesla

  • Launched a recall of around 53,000 vehicles in order to repair brake problems caused by faulty parts from supplier Brembo. (..)
  • German media speculation that employees at Tesla’s new German subsidiary (formerly Grohmann Engineering) might strike due to dissatisfaction with their pay. (..)
  • Media reports of a chemical spill at the Gigafactory (battery factory) were revealed to be the spillage of a drum of “standard construction cleaning solvent” rather than any production line related chemicals. (..)
  • Saw a class-action lawsuit launched over the safety of Autopilot 2.0. The lawsuit represents 3 Tesla owners and has been dismissed by the company as disingenuous. (..)
  • Saw speculation, based on Tesla’s applications for building permits in California, that the company might have a design for an automated charging facility. (..)
  • Announced pricing and line-up changes that saw it drop the entry-level 60kWh Model S (which had a 75kWh battery that could be activated for an additional fee) and a drop in the price of the now entry-level 75kWh. (..)

Toyota

  • Executives speaking off the record indicated that the company’s global fuel cell strategy has been undermined by Chinese regulations supporting battery electric vehicles instead. (..)
  • Toyota took part in a $45 million Series C funding round for car sharing service Getaround. (..)
  • Created a fuel-cell semi-truck (HGV) to demonstrate the scalability of the fuel cell technology used in the Mirai car. The truck has a fuel cell system double the size of the one in the Mirai. (..)

VW Group

  • Announced via an ad-hoc release that Q1 2017 profit before tax (€4.4 billion) and revenues were above market expectations. The ad-hoc release was made ahead of scheduled reporting due to German financial reporting rules. Daimler and BMW also had financial results in Q1 2017 that were significantly better than expected. (..)
  • Faced ongoing criticism of its management remuneration policy, especially concerns that year over year profit improvement versus diesel-scandal affected results may be treated as management performance rather than returning to normal. (..)
  • CEO of the Audi brands said that he expects the Chinese market for premium vehicles to grow by 50 percent in the next 10 years. (..)
  • Some further technical details of the US charging network that VW will fund emerged, including that the intended rating of the chargers will be 320kW (note that Tesla currently stands at around 135kW and recent Nissan investments are for around 150kW). (..)
  • Announced that Larry D. Thompson has been appointed to act as the Independent Compliance Monitor to oversee implementation of VW’s legal agreements with the US government that result from the diesel scandal. (..)
  • VW expects to launch a budget electric car in China in partnership with local manufacturer JAC. (..)

Other

  • AeroMobil announced that it is ready to take pre-orders for its flying car. The car is scheduled to be released in 2020 and has a reported price tag of $1.3 million. (..)
  • Gaz reported 2016 net profit of 1.1 billion RUB. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • The European Union will reportedly propose rules that would mean higher emitting vehicles have to pay larger toll road fees. (..)
  • European passenger car registrations were up 11.2% year over year in March and 8.4% for the quarter as a whole. (..)
  • Car production in the Czech Republic was 387,342 vehicles in Q1 2017, a 10.7% year over year increase. (..)

Suppliers

  • Bosch said that it will form a self-driving partnership with Chinese software firm Baidu and mapmaker AutoMavi. Bosch has only recently announced a collaboration with Daimler. (..)
  • Continental will reportedly announce plans to restructure its powertrain division before its 28th April AGM. Continental launched a review of the business in January. (..)

Ride-Hailing & Car Sharing

  • According to board member Hubertus Troska, Daimler is in talks with various Chinese ride hailing firms including Didi around possible cooperation. (..)
  • Uber had its operations in Brno, Czech Republic disrupted by a court injunction judging that there was insufficient driver training and vehicles must be equipped with taximeters. (..)
  • Toyota took part in a $45 million Series C funding round for car sharing service Getaround. (..)
  • Uber announced that vice president of global vehicle programs Sherif Marakby (a hire from Ford) had left the company after joining around one year ago. (..)
  • Uber CEO has allegedly hired his own driver and stopped using the company’s services following negative PR after an argument with an Uber driver that was filmed and released on the internet. (..)

 Driverless / Autonomy

  • Baidu announced that it would make its driverless technology open source under the banner of “Apollo”. Baidu’s aim is to have capability for highways and open city roads by 2020 (..)
  • Daimler said that it is still evaluating possible semi-conductor suppliers for the processor units of its autonomous vehicles, (..)
  • Bosch said that it will form a self-driving partnership with Chinese software firm Baidu and mapmaker AutoMavi. Bosch has only recently announced a collaboration with Daimler. (..)
  • Google have purchased a large block of land in Nevada, USA, ostensibly for a data centre but media speculation was that a test track for autonomous vehicles could be built there too. (..)

Electrification

  • Ford researchers published a paper showing a route to charging prismatic lithium ion cells to 85% in 2 minutes and 100% in 3 minutes (the rest did not reflect a full battery lifetime). (..)
  • Apple maps has now begin displaying the location of European charging points (it was already available in the US) using data from Moovility. (..)
  • BMW said that in China its ChargeNow subsidiary would have a total of 2,500 chargers in 15 cities by the end of 2017, a 50% rate of growth. (..)
  • Nissan will build a second “advanced recharging corridor” in the USA with partner EVgo. The route will create charging stations between Boston and Washington D.C. 50 chargers will be installed and the sites will be capable of 150kW chargers but initial installation will be 50kW per charger. (..)
  • Some further technical details of the US charging network that VW will fund emerged, including that the intended rating of the chargers will be 320kW (note that Tesla currently stands at around 135kW and recent Nissan investments are for around 150kW). (..)

Other

  • Roland Berger released a new quarterly report titled “Automotive Disruption Radar” looking at impending changes in the industry. (..)
  • Chinese automotive e-commerce site Bitauto holdings announced a $1 billion fundraising from Baidu, Tencent and JD.com. This led to media speculation that the investment was related to Baidu’s plans for autonomous vehicles (the investment could allow a financing model to provide cars on a subscription basis). (..)
  • The UK body for insurance (the ABI) reported that motor insurance premiums had risen 8% year over year, citing increase in whiplash claims, taxes and repair costs as well as a reduction in return from investments. (..)
  • UK Financial regulators the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will launch an investigation into irresponsible lending practices in the car leasing market. (..)
  • US car auction company KAR Auction Services said that it will by DRIVIN, an automotive pricing and demand data supplier (..)

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 10th April to 16th April 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here.

Our favourite story this week is Volvo saying that they recognise driverless cars will likely lead to fewer vehicles being manufactured. This is the first time we can remember that we’ve seen any carmaker say this. GM were at the same panel and offered a different view.

Also, Toyota has now joined Ford and GM in saying that the US market has peaked. Who’s next?

For all this and more, take a look.

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

When Brexit Means Brexit: What Does It Mean For The Automotive Industry?

Much uncertainty remains about how the United Kingdom (UK) will exit the European Union (EU) and the nature of their ongoing bi-lateral relationship. Nevertheless, it is already possible to assess some of the impacts on the UK automotive industry. Overall, it doesn’t look positive.

We’ve written an in-depth report which can be found here. The key issues are as follows:

Sterling devaluation has already depressed profit margins

Irrespective of speculation around the actual form of Brexit, profitability has already taken a substantial hit from sterling depreciation. As these two charts show, the pound has lost about 15% of its value versus the euro and dollar since January 2016 and most of the new vehicles sold in the UK are imported. This devaluation is set to cost the likes of GM, Ford and PSA more than $400 million annually.

Tariff barriers expose most OEMs to considerable cost risks and the industry isn’t structurally able to satisfy UK demand from UK factories

Although the imposition of tariffs is by no means certain – and isn’t the UK government’s preferred option – their impact is so severe that the risk needs to be taken seriously now. The left-hand chart below shows the level of tariffs that OEMs would pay if the UK adopted the EU’s applied tariffs on imports from the continent.

As the right-hand chart below shows, since the supply base for vehicles is spread across Europe (and indeed the world), all volume OEMs would be subject to some degree of tariff cost.  Currently, the high-volume product with the greatest amount of local sourcing still imports 45% of the vehicle parts (by value).

There is an imbalance of supply and demand. The supply is too small to cover demand and produces the wrong type of vehicles. It will not be a simple or quick task to minimise tariffs by better aligning local production with demand.


Recovering profitability seamlessly through pricing may be impossible

From the charts below we can see that despite the growth of the UK market in recent years, monthly leasing cost is falling (the right-hand chart uses Vauxhall Astra as an example). The small increases in list price are academic in an industry where almost 90% of sales are financed (see next section). If OEMs are struggling to price in these market conditions, we believe it is unlikely that they will be able to swiftly recover exchange and / or tariff losses.

Some OEM captive finance arms will need restructuring if passporting rights are lost

The charts below show that consumer finance is now used in almost all new car sales and how the manufacturers use finance offerings to apply incentives. Although most OEMs have structures in place for their captive finance arms that will be unaffected by Brexit, VW, Renault, Ford and Toyota have some businesses which will require either closure or restructuring.

Day to day operations will be impacted by a range of further potential changes

Each of these is minor in financial terms when compared to the impact of Sterling weakness and threat of tariff barriers but it will require management time and energy to overcome risks such as insufficient data protection standards or fleet emission target lapses.

What should OEMs do next?

If they haven’t already started, a full assessment of their businesses against the factors above using conditions that range from the UK government’s negotiating aspirations to a “no deal” Brexit. Some will then face a choice between doing nothing and facing severe financial consequences, or planning significant changes in resource allocation.

Given the scale of the investments required, most OEMs will likely adopt a wait and see attitude, keep their fingers crossed, and absorb near-term financial impacts rather than commit to costly changes in their structure that would prove unnecessary in the event of an agreement on free movement of goods.

(This post can also be found on LinkedIn here.)

Article Image: Vorotnikova Alyona / Shutterstock

Throwback: The last time Opel was going to be sold

Given that this is the big news story. We thought that we would dive into our news database and dig up some of the older news on this topic…

September 2009 – GM to sell control of Opel to Russia-backed Magna

Reuters reported the plan to sell 65% of Opel to Magna / Sberbank and an employee trust. The article notes that “..a report prepared by financial adviser KPMG and presented to GM’s board this week said an earlier estimate of the cost of keeping Opel by GM management had been “overly optimistic.”

November 2009 – General Motors cancels Opel sale

Here is an article from the BBC when GM called off the sale to Magna… a nice summary of events

“General Motors (GM) has cancelled plans to sell a majority stake in its European car business Opel, including its UK brand Vauxhall.”

June 2011 – GM’s Opel calls reports it’s for sale speculation

Thankfully, Yahoo have kept this story from June 2011

“General Motors’ European subsidiary Opel on Thursday firmly dismissed as speculation media reports that it’s up for sale. ”

September 2011 – GM to retain Opel for at least 10 years, Opel spokesman says

Although Bloomberg deleted their original reporting, the web scrapers have saved this for us.

“General Motors Co. (GM) plans to retain ownership of German unit Adam Opel GmbH for at least 10 years, Opel spokesman Stefan Weinmann said, confirming comments by GM’s vice president of global public policy Robert Ferguson to Bild Zeitung today. ”

(…In fairness, it does only say “plans to”.)

July 2012 – GM seen step away from giving up on Opel for good

Intense speculation followed the sacking of Karl-Friedrich Stracke in 2012 that Opel was being given one last chance.

“Just hours after General Motors (GM.N) abruptly fired Karl-Friedrich Stracke as chief executive of Opel last week, industry observers were already beginning to ask whether it was time to start writing the troubled European unit’s epitaph.”

“Since GM emerged from bankruptcy three years ago, Opel has racked up $3.5 billion in underlying losses thanks to an ever shrinking European car market, a bloated fixed cost base and an image that GM has helped bring low.”