Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news, self-driving vehicles, driverless vehicles, ride hailing, on-demand mobility

AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH BY AD PUNCTUM

With a background in the strategy, finance and manufacturing teams of a major European carmaker (original equipment manufacturer -- OEM), you can expect Ad Punctum’s research to be well-informed, detailed and based on extensive experience of how the modern automotive industry actually works and what the key trends are.

This section provides access to materials that we have published to be available free of charge (with proper attribution). It provides an idea of our written style and shows the breadth of topics that we’ve covered in recent work that we have performed. It covers three main topics: The core business of carmakers today (making and selling cars), the industry mega-trend of on-demand mobility and we’ve included some materials around the impact of Brexit. The focus of our published materials is the European industry.

If you’d like to know more on any of these topics, or discuss a completely different subject entirely, then please email us at info@adpunctum.co.uk or call on +44 (0) 203 858 0760.

NEWS AND TREND TRACKING

If you want to know more about our tracking of news across the OEMs and emerging trends (including our weekly briefing summarising auto industry news and trends from the prior seven days by company) then please click here.

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

CORE AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS

Regardless of the growth in on-demand mobility, car making as we know it today will be around for a good while longer -- especially in parts of the world that cannot afford or sustain new high technology infrastructure. That doesn’t mean that the business will stay the same however. Our research includes competitive positioning, manufacturing efficiency, electrification, autonomy, M&A and restructuring.

We love discussing the automotive industry, especially the nuts and bolts of vehicle development, manufacturing and sales. If you do too then please email us at info@adpunctum.co.uk or call on +44 (0) 203 858 0760.

Research: How combining PSA with Opel and Vauxhall will yield savings -- March 2017

Our analysis of the savings the combined business will be able to make, in part a fact check of PSA's own claims made during their 6th March presentation (found here).

  • We believe PSA's €1.7 billion / year cost saving target to be achievable (and think that there could be more to come)
  • We think that the manufacturing and administrative savings PSA are targeting will require around 6,000 - 8,000 job losses

We are keeping this piece of work under review as PSA make announcements (for instance, PSA Madrid may have a future until 2025). We will publish an update when more substantial detail emerges that would change our overall conclusions.

Research: Automotive M&A history and implications for the future -- June 2017

We thought it would be interesting (and fun) to look at Automotive OEM M&A history -- and the implications for who might be next in line for a deal. Here are the summary findings:

  • Takeovers of entire companies are historically relatively rare
  • Buying brands (e.g. Opel) or part ownership is far more common
  • Deals are often based on emotion as well as acumen and history is relevant
  • There are several companies or brands that may catch a buyer’s eye
  • Likely interest from companies with portfolio gaps and technology companies looking to pair driverless technology with mechanical know-how
  • Substantial controlling interests remain -- deals rely on chemistry as well as compelling business logic

Research: Tesla's Volume Outlook -- October 2017

Our analysis of Tesla's volume outlook for Model S, Model X and Model 3

  • We believe that Model S and X volumes will only grow slightly
  • We think that Model 3 will sell around 200,000 units per year -- not insignificant, but well short of expectations

Only time will tell if we are right or wildly wrong...

Research: Driverless Vehicle Demonstrations -- October 2017

The technology is so new that pretty much any self-driving demonstration is awesome. This report is to help you stay objective...

  • Why image recognition and scene understanding are key differentiators
  • The four main categories of demonstration (and how to spot them)

Be excited by the hype, but don't believe it all.

Research: Safe Top Speeds For Autonomous Vehicles -- November 2017

Our analysis of the impact of sensor performance on the maximum safe speeds of autonomous vehicles

  • Passenger cars will likely have to travel below 70mph
  • Trucks will likely have to travel below 60mph
  • A significant increase in rear-end collisions is likely

Although sensors will likely improve in future, it may well not be until past 2025 that they perform well enough for cars to move more quickly.

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news, self-driving vehicles, driverless vehicles, ride hailing, on-demand mobility

ON-DEMAND (SMART) MOBILITY

The latest automotive industry mega-trend, on-demand mobility (smart mobility to some) is a new take on an age-old service. Although taking a taxi is nothing new -- licensed carriages in London have existed for centuries -- the idea that the service could be so cheap that it is accessible to all is.

On-demand doves dream of a day when private ownership of vehicles is considered wasteful and vain -- you'll simply have a car arrive at your doorstep and after you finish your journey it will go somewhere else. You'll only pay for what you use and it will far cheaper than car ownership today. Ride-hailing services such as Uber or Didi and car sharing businesses such as Zipcar are just the start. The real action starts when technology allows the car to do away with its human driver.

What can we offer? We see on-demand mobility as a very interesting trend, one with the potential to change major elements of the way that the automotive business runs. We also think the science fiction part of forecasting what the technology could become is the easy bit, just watch Total Recall (the 1990 version) or I, Robot (2004) to get a glimpse of what driverless transport might look like. Where we can add value is through insight into the business realities of on-demand mobility. Questions such as: How much will the technology cost? How quickly will it be available? What are the potential business models? Where does the skillset of carmakers match the emerging business? What is the customer demand? What will regulators be looking for?

If you would like to have a discussion and know more about our perspective, then please email us at info@adpunctum.co.uk or call on +44 (0) 203 858 0760.

Research: How carmakers can participate in on-demand mobility -- February 2017

The first in a series about on-demand mobility, we look at:

  • How the value stream will change versus today
  • Why OEMs can't do everything they are currently trying
  • What OEMs can learn from other sectors

Research: The strategy problems that on-demand mobility creates for carmakers -- March 2017

The second publication in our series about on-demand mobility, we look at:

  • Why the strategy challenge is different to current OEM core business
  • What to look at to assess the robustness of an OEM's approach
  • What it means if the answers are unsatisfactory

Research: The future of on-demand mobility from first principles -- May 2017

The most substantive publication yet in our series about on-demand mobility, we look at:

  • Patterns of human travel today and the implications for the cost and availability levels that on-demand must reach
  • How on-demand mobility can achieve price points that are lower than car ownership
  • How quickly people might adopt on-demand mobility in preference to other forms of transport
  • What the impact on car production would be if people switched en-masse to subscription mobility services (spoiler alert: it's bad news)
Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

BREXIT (THE UK LEAVING THE EU)

With a focus on the European industry, it would be remiss not to talk about the impact of the UK leaving the European Union (Brexit) on the car industry. Some of the economic impact has already been felt and there is the potential for extensive further complexity and cost in the event that the UK government and the EU fail to agree the comprehensive Free Trade Agreement that the UK government desires.

As the second largest market for car sales in the European Union (in 2016), accounting for almost 20% of EU volume, stability in the UK market is a priority for almost all manufacturers. Our research covers the potential outcomes, resulting impacts on the automotive business, contingency plan options and timing. We don’t think that anyone else has published Brexit analysis that is as in-depth as ours, and there is more where that came from. If you would like to know more about this topic then please email us at info@adpunctum.co.uk or call on +44 (0) 203 858 0760.

Research: Implications of Brexit on OEMs in the UK -- February 2017

An in-depth report into possible Brexit outcomes, we look at:

  • The key potential impacts of Brexit for the automotive sector
  • Current market position of the major OEMs
  • How each OEM would be impacted by each of the different factors

Don't fancy the full-fat report? Read an abridged version here.

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

AUTOMOTIVE DATA CENTRE

As a result of our research we produce substantial amounts of data, including detailed financial analysis history. sales and production volumes, manufacturing capacities and company headcount and site-by-site information. In particular, we believe that our detailed financial analysis and detailed company capacity and headcount data offer insights that are difficult to come by elsewhere.

Example: PSA Automotive Headcount by Site

Please email us at info@adpunctum.co.uk or call on +44 (0) 203 858 0760 to compare notes and see what we have to offer.