Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 3rd July to 9th July 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week…? We are going to keep things very simple and recommend that you take a look at VW’s mobility technology day press release. It details a number of areas that the company is working on, ranging from powertrain to automated infrastructure. Here’s the kicker: this is now all price of entry. Next time you see a company talking airily about its contribution to future mobility, compare it to this. If it looks similar, then they may be far less disruptive than they claim.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

If you want a history lesson, our archive can be found here.

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Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • Has set itself a target of saving €1 billion in indirect production costs by 2019. BMW’s current indirect purchasing bill is around €20 billion. (More…)
  • Said that the stoppage a few weeks ago caused by a Bosch supplier had affected delivery of around 8,000 vehicles. (More…)
  • Will use Inrix as a provider of parking space information in 5 series vehicles. (More…)
    • Implication: BMW has invested in Parkmobile and Inrix is part-owned by rival VW, BMW’s choice indicates that they feel even with close partnerships, they will exploit better alternatives where they see fit.
  • Will supply i3 powertrain components to electric boat propulsion company Torqueedo. (More…)

Daimler

  • Released further details of the (previously announced) JV it has formed with BAIC to produce and sell electric vehicles in China. The two partners will invest €655 million. One of the clear targets is to locally produce Mercedes-Benz badged vehicles that use Chinese battery cells. (More…)
  • Reported June sales figures for cars. 221,874 vehicles were sold in June, an increase of 10.1% on a year-over-year basis. Improved sales at Mercedes-Benz more than offset losses at Smart. (More…)
  • Has started a legal case against bearing supplier SKF because of the company’s participation in a cartel. SKF is already being sued by BMW but says its actions had no effect on its customers. (More…)

Ford

  • Announced June sales figures for US and China. In the US, sales were down (5.1)% on a year-over-year basis, with increases for trucks and SUVs failing to offset a fall in fleet sales and passenger cars. (More…). Ford’s Chinese JVs reported sales up 15% YoY. (More…)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Volvo announced that it will cease production and sale of vehicles powered only by internal combustion engines in 2019. Although the news was billed as Volvo converting to electrification, the company’s near-term ambitions are more modest and the announcement is about 100% penetration of 48V mild hybrid systems / PHEV and BEV on all new products that launch after 2019. In practice, vehicles will continue to be produced with ICE-only powertrain into the 2020s until they are replaced. In separate comments, Volvo also said that a 48V gasoline engine will be around equivalent cost to a (Stage 6.2) diesel engine. (More…)
    • Implication: although the substance of the announcement was not the wholesale switch to electrification that many of the headline writers seized, this move will add to existing calls for other OEMs to show that they are taking the transition to electrification seriously. In many ways, Volvo’s press release shows the goodwill that can be generated from simply being the first to state what will be a commonplace transition plan.
  • Geely announced that it was buying flying car start-up Terrafugia. (More…)
  • Reported Volvo sales figures for the first half of the year. Sales of 277,641 vehicles was an 8.2% increase on a year-over-year basis. Increases in China more than offset share losses in the Americas. (More…)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Reported June sales figures for the USA. Total sales of 243,155 vehicles was down about (5)% on a year-over-year basis. GM tried to draw attention to areas where it was out-performing rivals: lower incentive spending and fewer sales to rental companies (memo: inventory at GM is currently far higher than domestic rivals). (More…)
  • Three workers were injured in an explosion at the Hamtramck assembly plant (all are expected to recover). Production was unaffected by the incident. (More…)

Honda

  • Announced that has formed a joint venture with Hitachi (49% Honda/51% Hitachi) to develop and manufacture electric vehicle motors. This follows months of detailed discussions after agreeing an MoU earlier this year. (..)
  • Reported US sales results for June. Total sales of 139,793 vehicles represented an increase of 0.8% on a year-over-year basis. Improvements at the Acura brand more than offset a slight decline in sales of Honda branded vehicles. (More…)

Hyundai / Kia

  • Hyundai reported June sales results. 376,109 units were sold, a (15.5)% reduction on a year-over-year basis. The main cause of the reduction was weaker South Korea and Chinese sales. (More…)
  • Kia reported June sales results. 232,370 vehicles were sold, representing a (13.3)% decline on a year-over-year basis. Kia primarily blamed declines in the South Korean market and losses in China (memo: both Hyundai and Kia had previously said tension over US missile interceptor sites in South Korea were harming Chinese sales). (More…)

Nissan (includes Mitsubishi)

  • Reported sales results for US and Europe. US sales of 143,328 were up 2% on a year-over-year basis. European sales of 70,757 units were up 4.4% YoY. (..)
  • Said that in 2016, the Renault-Nissan alliance had delivered €5 billion in annual synergies, a 16% increase over the figure for the previous year. With the addition of Mitsubishi and further application of CMF-based vehicles, R-N expect this saving to reach at least €5.5 billion by 2018. (More…)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • The European Union announced that it had approved the sale of Opel and Vauxhall to PSA. The EU statement noted that in Estonia and Portugal the combined entity would have a 40% market share in small commercial vehicles but took no action. (More…)
  • Faurecia announced that it will create a joint venture with (PSA’s part-owner) Dongfeng to provide clean mobility technologies to Dongfeng-affiliated OEMs. (More…). It also announced a new JV with Wuling to produce seating. (More…)
  • Is in conflict with one of the smaller unions at the Vigo plant. The union is complaining about the line rate increases PSA has imposed and is threatening strike action. PSA has refused to negotiate saying that the union represents less than 20% of workers at the plant. (More…)
  • Created a research partnership with Moroccan and US universities called OpenLab to look at sustainable mobility in Africa. (More…)
    • Implication: PSA is recognising the precedent set by development of the mobile phone industry in Africa (examples include M-Pesa) and is looking for Africa-centric solutions
  • PSA’s site at Sept-Fons was blockaded by the workers of GM&S, unhappy at the progress being made to avoid a liquidation of the company. PSA had to take emergency measures including the use of helicopters to retrieve parts and the blockade was lifted after a few days. (More…)
  • France’s finance minister announced that the government would put €10 billion towards innovation, with the money coming from the sale of various company stakes owned by the government. He declined to name the potential sales — PSA was an inevitable target of speculation. (More…)
    • Implication: a sale by the French state could change the balance of power within PSA since the current ownership stake is designed to be inline with the shareholdings of the Peugeot family and Dongfeng.

Renault

  • Announced a new joint venture in China with Brilliance Automotive (in addition to its JV with Dongfeng). Renault will have 49% of the JV which will be for commercial vehicles. The JV was formed through the re-capitalisation of Brilliance Automotive’s existing subsidiary Shenyang Brilliance Jinbei. (More…)
    • Implication: although relatively late to China, Renault now has two JVs (which seems the de rigeur number for most companies) and is very experienced in the kind of battery electric vehicles that the Chinese government is encouraging.
  • Has invested in a joint venture with driving simulation company Oktal. Renault has taken a 35% stake in the new entity, to be called Autonomous Vehicle Simulation (AVS), which will include Renault’s in-house simulation software SCANeR.
  • Said that in 2016, the Renault-Nissan alliance had delivered €5 billion in annual synergies, a 16% increase over the figure for the previous year. With the addition of Mitsubishi and further application of CMF-based vehicles, R-N expect this saving to reach at least €5.5 billion by 2018. (More…)
  • France’s finance minister announced that the government would put €10 billion towards innovation, with the money coming from the sale of various company stakes owned by the government. He declined to name the potential sales — Renault was an inevitable target of speculation. (More…)
    • Implication: a sale by the French state could change the balance of power within Renault and possibly even changes in the capital structure of the Renault-Nissan alliance.

Tata (includes JLR)

  • Reported June sales figures for Jaguar Land Rover. Sales of 51,591 vehicles were up 11% on a year-over-year basis. For April to June 2017, sales of 137,463 units was an increase of 3.5% but within this figure Land Rover sales were down (4.7)% — attributed by JLR to weakness in emerging markets other than China. (..)

Tesla

  • Reported Q2 production and delivery figures. 22,000 vehicles were delivered, of which around 12,000 were Model S. Although up on a year-over-year basis, the figure was short of market expectations. Tesla reported that a production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs had constrained supply of vehicles to around 60% of demand during April and May. Tesla issued a follow-up following negative feedback that it had an additional 3,500 vehicles in transit that were not declared as deliveries, but it was unclear whether this number had been in any way inflated by the production hold-up. (More…)
  • Saw concern from investors and media following the Model S failing to achieve the top safety rating in every test set by the IIHS (a US insurance industry testing initiative). The Model S recorded the top rating in all but one test, in which it recorded the 2nd highest rating. Tesla called the test “subjective”. (..)
    • Implication: The pressure on Tesla to execute in every area in a better way than other automakers seems to be increasing. This is an expectation that the company will find it difficult to fully satisfy.
  • Said that the first production-standard Model 3 had left the factory (More…)
  • Announced that lower-end Model S and Model X vehicles will receive upgrades to improve their acceleration times. (More…)
  • Saw concerns arise over drops in registrations in California and Hong Kong. The local registration reporting lags Tesla’s own sales figures. (More…)
  • Elon Musk showed that Donald Trump isn’t the only one who can do massive deals via Twitter. Tesla has agreed to deliver 100 MW of battery capacity to an Australian utility. If Tesla doesn’t deliver within 100 days, the batteries will be free, showing Tesla is prepared to learn from the takeaway pizza industry. The offer was originally made via a tweet in April (More…)

VW Group

  • Said that the recall of vehicles to fix problems with the brakes had risen from 385,000 last week to 766,000 cars. (More…)
  • Reported to be the front-runner for the contract to be official sponsor of the German national team. The sponsorship is said to cost €25 to €30 million per year. Mercedes are the current sponsor. (More…)
  • Seats’s president said that the Spanish government should do more to encourage sales of electric vehicles in order to attract production of electric cars, noting that currently only electric commercial vehicles are produced in the country. He also noted that he was expecting a new generation of batteries to arrive in 2025 that would give a significant cost advantage. (More…)
  • Said that it will return to Iran with the VW brand. The company will partner with privately-held Mummut Khodro. At present, all vehicles will be imported. (More…)
  • Claims emerged in the German press that VW’s management had been informed of the likely costs of the diesel scandal over a month before any public announcements were made, calling into question whether the executive team acted in a suitably timely manner. (More…)
  • Will work with Third Space Auto on applications for artificial intelligence within the vehicle such as voice recognition and smartphone integration. (should have been in last week’s review). (More…)
  • VW Group held a mobility technology day where it outlined many of the projects it is working on around electrification and mobility. As well as the usual work on better drivetrain and sensors, VW highlighted work on infrastructure such as charging stations that automatically plug in to the car. (More…)
  • VW will partner with robotics supplier Kuka on applications that can help electric and autonomous vehicles, particularly around supporting services and infrastructure. (More…)
    • Implication: The advent of the robo-taxi will see costs of driving reduced but needs infrastructure innovations such as automated cleaning and re-charging to provide a low overall cost. VW’s partnership with Kuka will enable it to explore what it takes to deliver these type of services.
  • Porsche is said to be working on autonomous vehicle software designed for on-track application. The company has apparently retained the services of ex-Formula 1 driver Mark Webber to help them record circuit data that can then be downloaded to other cars and teach the owners how to drive faster. (More…)
    • Implication: as autonomous driving threatens to change the car ownership model, it holds some possibilities for brands to provide a more tailored experience than can be economically offered today.

Other

  • Chery’s Qoros brand said that it would create a sub-brand of its own called Model Young that will sell cheaper vehicles using the platforms that Qoros has developed. (More…)
  • Volvo AB (the truckmaker, not the car company) said that it would sell its 25% stake in Deutz, a German maker of large diesels. Deutz will remain a supplier.
  • McLaren is reportedly looking to raise £525 million by issuing a bond. The proceeds will largely be used to pay for the share purchase from former CEO Ron Dennis. (More…)
  • SAIC will take on GM’s former site in Gujarat, India for production of MG cars, scheduled to begin in 2019. The site reportedly has a production capacity of around 130,000 units per annum. (More…)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • The EU parliament’s environment commission recommended a target of between 68g and 78 g of CO2 per km for passenger car fleet averages in 2025 (95g is the 2021 target) and between 105g and 120g for commercial vehicles. This recommendation does not guarantee that these will be the new regulatory levels but the opinion of the MEPs influences the process. (More…)
    • Implication: In order to meet these emission targets, lightweight technologies and near 100% usage of 48V as well as a substantial increase in PHEV and BEV would be required with implications for OEM R&D spend and future profit outlook, suppliers and raw materials purchasing.
  • France’s energy minister said that the country intends to stop the sale of all non-zero emission vehicles by 2040. This aspiration is not yet backed by draft legislation. The government will also launch a scrappage scheme for older gasoline and diesel vehicles. (More…)
    • Implication: this was seized upon by mainstream media as an example of action, with calls for other countries to follow France’s lead. Lost in this was the existing commitment by a group of countries including Germany, the UK and the Netherlands to halt the sale of all non-emission vehicles by 2050. Whilst this timeline is later, most seemed to not even realise it existed. These commitments by governments also give clearer planning horizons for automakers and users.
  • The European Union and Japan announced that they had reached political agreement on a free trade agreement. Final agreement may take another few years but was confirmed to include the imports of car parts and vehicles with zero tariff conditions being phased in over an unspecified amount of time (More…)
    • Implication: this agreement will increase competitive pressure in Europe and also provides an alternative for Japanese manufacturers heavily exposed to Brexit due to their manufacturing footprints (Nissan, Toyota and Honda). Given their low sales in the UK, they may in time prefer to close UK plants and import into the EU from other locations if the UK fails to agree zero tariff trade with the EU.
  • US sales figures for May showed an industry SAAR for the month of 16.41 million units. (More…). The US auto dealers trade body said that it forecasts industry at 17.1 million units for full year 2017 (More…).
  • German car registrations for June of 327,800 units were down (3)% on a year-over-year basis, the trade association attributed this to two fewer selling days. (More…)
  • UK car registrations of 243,454 units were down (4.8)% on a year-over-year basis. Within this, diesel fell by (14.7)% and is down almost (10)% on a YTD basis. (More…) Commercial vehicle sales of 37,349 units was up 1.8% in June, although the market is still down (3.7)% on a YTD basis. (More…)
  • French registrations for passenger cars and commercial vehicles in June were up 1.6% and 1.9% respectively. Adjusting for selling days, the growth was much stronger: 6.4% for cars and 6.7% for CVs. (More…)
  • Spanish registrations for passenger cars and commercial vehicles in June were up 6.5% and 8.7% respectively. (More…)
  • Brazilian automotive sales rose 13.5% on a year-over-year basis. Some press reporting concentrated on a month-over-month slowdown — sales dropped 0.3% on that basis). (More…)

Suppliers

  • Continental said that it had taken a stake in French autonomous bus company EasyMile. (More…)
  • Autoliv has entered into an agreement with Velodyne with the intent of commercialising the latter’s LIDAR technology (should have been reported last week). (More…)
  • Faurecia announced that it will create a joint venture with (PSA’s part-owner) Dongfeng to provide clean mobility technologies to Dongfeng-affiliated OEMs. (More…). It also announced a new JV with Wuling to produce seating. (More…)
  • The US NHTSA is reportedly looking at the safety of fuel tank components made by Continental. If the agency decided that a recall was necessary, millions of vehicles could be affected. (More…)
  • Continental has acquired Singaporean company Quantum Technologies — a navigation and telematics specialist. (More…)

Dealers

  • There was a flurry of UK dealer acquisitions: Super Group purchased six Ford and three Suzuki dealerships (More…). Group 1 acquired Beadles Group. (More…). Sytner bought a BMW dealership (More…) and Motorline took on a Hyundai dealership. (More…)
    • Implication: despite Brexit and sluggish industry figures, dealer acquisitions continue. It isn’t clear if this consolidation reflects a pressure to reduce overhead or is due to continuing optimism about the prospects for the UK market. As a point of note, both Super Group and Group 1 are based outside the UK and have made multiple acquisitions recently.
  • Indian online car sales portal Droom announced it had raised $20 million to further expand the business. (More…)
    • Implication: Online sales is an area where developing countries have the potential to leapfrog existing automotive practices, so Droom could provide useful lessons for companies such as Amazon (memo: in the process of hiring a team to begin online sales).

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental

  • Uber said that it would partially suspend services in Finland. The UberBlack service (professional drivers) will continue but UberPop (unlicensed drivers) will be stopped until new regulations are put in place. (More…)
  • Spanish car sharing start-up Amovens announced that it had raised €5 million to enter the French market. (More…)
  • Russia’s Bakulin Motors Group announced that it would begin trials of driverless buses on a university campus. (More…)
  • Lyft said that it was now completing 1 million rides per day (memo: Uber is currently carrying out upwards of 6 million rides per day in more markets). (More…)
  • Zipcar said that it would withdraw from the Austrian market. (More…)

Driverless / Autonomy

  • Baidu announced that its Project Apollo initiative, launched earlier this year, now has over 50 partner companies. These include several Chinese OEMs, Ford and Daimler. (More…)
  • US Start-up Torc emerged from stealth mode saying that it was producing self-driving hardware for retro-fit to existing vehicles. It currently has 1,000 miles of autonomous driving. (More…)
  • Continental said that it had taken a stake in French autonomous bus company EasyMile. (More…)
  • Autoliv has entered into an agreement with Velodyne with the intent of commercialising the latter’s LIDAR technology (should have been reported last week). (More…)
  • As part of the ongoing UberWaymo litigation, a judge ordered Waymo to turn over documents relating to its communications with Lyft. Uber seems particularly interested in the nature of M&A discussions between the two. At the same time, Waymo has dropped three of the four patent claims it made, seemingly due to the inability to get the engineer at the centre of the case to testify as he wants to avoid self-incrimination. (More…)
  • ai launched its first product, called Panda. The device plugs into existing car hardware and collects information about how the vehicle drives. The intent is that later on this information can be used to create self-driving programs. (More…)
  • Dutch start-up Amber is claiming that it will have self-driving cars on the streets by mid-2018. (More…)
  • Swedish start-up Einride unveiled its driverless delivery vehicle concept. There is no cabin so the vehicle must either operate in autonomous mode or be driven by a remote operator. (More…)
  • Porsche is said to be working on autonomous vehicle software designed for on-track application. The company has apparently retained the services of ex-Formula 1 driver Mark Webber to help them record circuit data that can then be downloaded to other cars and teach the owners how to drive faster. (More…)
    • Implication: as autonomous driving threatens to change the car ownership model, it holds some possibilities for brands to provide a more tailored experience than can be economically offered today.

Electrification

  • Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) published an updated assessment of electrification growth. Their latest forecast is for cost parity by 2025 and for one third of the vehicle fleet to have a plug (doesn’t preclude PHEVs) by 2040. BNEF set the cost-parity point at $109/kWh for a battery — higher than many other forecasts (which cluster around $70/kWh). (More…)
    • Implication: if the analysis is correct then there will be a surge in demand for the type of materials that go into electric vehicle batteries (assuming no new technology emerges) and manufacturers with only one or two volume BEV models in their portfolio will be unable to transition effectively in the event of a sudden (within three years) increase in electrified mix.
  • Charging provider NewMotion announced that it had become a partner on the Gireve This will allow wholesale access to other physical charging points that partner with Gireve, such as the BeLib stations in Paris. (More…)
  • Seats’s president said that the Spanish government should do more to encourage sales of electric vehicles in order to attract production of electric cars, noting that currently only electric commercial vehicles are produced in the country. He also noted that he was expecting a new generation of batteries to arrive in 2025 that would give a significant cost advantage. (More…)
  • UK start-up Charge Automotive said that it had signed a lease for a factory where it will assemble its range of 3.5 to 26 tonne electric trucks. (More…)
  • Lohr Group unveiled its electric minibus called Cristal. The vehicle is intended to feature autonomous technologies and will have a selling price of €90,000, with battery rental on top. (More…)
  • The founder of LeEco is reported to have sold his share of Lucid Motors. (More…)

Other

  • Geely announced that it was buying flying car start-up Terrafugia. (More…)
  • Slovakian flying car start-up Aeromobil announced it had raised further funds to support the next stage of product development. (More…)
Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 26th June to 2nd July 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week…? We’d been hearing people talking informally about €100 / kWh battery cell costs before 2020 for a while now but Audi have now broken cover and quoted the number in an interview. Some companies are still talking about much more expensive cost levels so it will be interesting to see whether this changes their view (btw, Audi aren’t the only OEM saying these numbers off the record).

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • BMW’s CEO visited the Spartanburg, US plant for the launch of the new X3. In a speech he stressed BMW’s contribution to the US economy and said that a further $600 million would be invested between now and 2021 to make new SUVs. (..)
  • BMW’s board member for sales said that the company was yet to decide where to build a forthcoming all-electric Mini. The plants in contention are Oxford (UK), NedCar (Netherlands), Leipzig and Regensburg (both in Germany). He said that the decision will be made in September. It is probably no coincidence that these remarks were made whilst BMW is in dispute with UK unions over pension terms. (More…)
  • BMW’s CFO said that one of the ways the company could afford increased R&D spending was by reducing complexity. Amongst potential measures he mentioned reducing the size of the diesel portfolio. (More…)
  • BMW remained silent on rumours that it will show an electric 3 series at the Frankfurt motor show (reportedly sporting a 400 km range). (More…)
  • Agreed with (German region) Bavaria’s government to improve the emissions of Stage 5 diesel cars through the use of new engine management software. This could be a template for agreement at a national level. (More…)

Daimler

  • Production of E-Class was reported slowed due to the “work to rule” action by workers in Daimlers plant at Untertürkheim, who produce components for the car. (..)

FCA

  • Media reports suggested that the company may be suspending deliveries of the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan (the same car used by Waymo) until the next model year arrives, due to problems with the electric system. (..)

Ford

  • Announced that the Ford-branded GoBike scheme (run by a 3rd party called Motivate) had launched in San Francisco. The scheme will ultimately have 7,000 bicycles available. (..)
  • Will hire 160 people and renew 240 temporary positions at its plant in Valencia, Spain due to a line rate increase to satisfy demand for Kuga. Following the hiring, line rate will rise from 1,810 cars per day to 1,920. (More…)
  • Announced that 400,000 Transits will be recalled in the US to fix problems with the driveshaft flexible coupling. A very small number of Police Interceptor and Escape vehicles will be recalled to fix specific issues. (More…)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Announced that the recently formed partnership with Autoliv (called Zenuity) to develop autonomous cars will work with Nvidia, targeting a Level 4 autonomous car by 2021. (More…)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Held a conference call to give an update on its financial forecast for the Opel / Vauxhall sale and US industry. The Opel / Vauxhall sale will incur $5.5 billion of special charges (up from $4.5 billion) and that from Q2 onwards the business will be reported as “discontinued operations”. GM also gave details of the way that profits and revenues will be impacted by the sale. US industry is now expected by GM to be in the “low 17 [millions]” as opposed to “min 17 [millions]” previously — the main trends are a weakness in passenger car sales and lower residual values. GM plans considerable inventory reductions for passengers cars by year end versus its current position. (More…)
  • Indicated that it was looking at ways to involve its dealers in the servicing and fleet management of autonomous vehicles. (More…)

Honda

  • JV Honda Dongfeng will recruit an additional 2,200 people in China to increase production. (..)

Mazda

  • Recalling almost 228,000 vehicles in the US because of problems with the parking brake. (..)

Nissan (includes Mitsubishi)

  • Announced May 2017 production and sales results. Global sales of 460,554 units were up 6.7% on a year-over-year basis, led by sales of passenger cars in Japan. (More…)
  • Early model (2011) and high mileage Nissan Leaf owners are reporting range degradation of over 50%. They are also discovering that Nissan’s earlier statements about battery replacement cost are not being honoured by dealers. (More…)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • After discussions with the French government, PSA committed itself to €12 million of annual orders from troubled supplier GM&S and to make a shared investment (with Renault) of €10 million in the site from 2018. This appears to pave the way for a takeover of GM&S by GMD. (..)
  • PSA discussed their plans for electric drivetrain manufacture, including locations for motor and pack assembly. The company appeared not to rule out developing its own battery cells but said it is not the preferred approach and that PSA believes there is proprietary knowledge in the software that controls charging and discharging. (More…)
  • Has launched a store in France that uses virtual reality instead of display models to sell cars and plans to have 30 such sites in operation across Europe by 2030. (More…)
  • Said that it will supply 55,000 3 cylinder engines from its Chinese JV plants to meet demand in Europe rather than increase capacity in European plants. (More…)

Renault

  • After discussions with the French government, Renault committed itself to €10 million of annual orders from troubled supplier GM&S and to make a shared investment (with PSA) of €10 million in the site from 2018. This appears to pave the way for a takeover of GM&S by GMD. (..)

Suzuki

  • Announced May 2017 production and sales results. Global production of 273,316 units was up 10.6% on a year-over-year basis. (More…)
  • Maruti-Suzuki announced June 2017 sales of 106,394 units, up 7.6% on a year-over-year basis. (More…)

Tesla

  • Elon Musk revealed that the Model 3 has passed its regulatory tests and handover to the first (very small) batch of customers will take place in late July. He believes that production could reach 20,000 cars per month by December. (..)

Toyota

  • Said that its Chinese JV FAW-Toyota would install a new assembly line for small SUVs with production capacity of 100,000 units starting in June 2018 and rising to 200,000 units. (..)
  • Invested in Israeli vehicle to vehicle communication hardware provider Autotalks. (More…)
  • Will recall 1,760 Lexus ES models to fix issues with the steering. (More…)
  • Announced May 2017 production and sales results. Global production of 734,574 units was down 1.4% on a year-over-year basis. (More…)

VW Group

  • Audi’s chief technical officer said in an interview that the company would be paying about €100 per kWh for batteries when it launches its new all-electric products later this decade. (More…)
  • Audi and MAN agreed with (German region) Bavaria’s government to improve the emissions of Stage 5 diesel cars through the use of new engine management software. This could be a template for agreement at a national level. (More…)
  • Saw ratings agency Fitch keep VW’s rating at BBB+ and revise the outlook upwards, to stable from negative. (More…)
  • Faced allegations that VW’s French arm had mis-reported sales and delivery figures for several years. The accusations would have affected the reporting of the timing of the sale. (More…)
  • Announced the creation of a deep learning data lab with Nvidia with a particular focus on mobility services. Memo: Audi announced their own deep learning activity a couple of weeks ago. (More…)
  • Will recall 385,000 cars in Germany to fix problems with anti-lock brakes. (More…)

Other

  • Aston Martin announced that it will produce an all-electric model for the first time. The RapidE will be a limited production run of 155 vehicles and will be based on the Rapide 4 door. Power and range figures were not revealed. The company previously was developing electric powertrains with Chinese group (and Faraday Future owner) LeEco but said it would be developing RapidE “by ourselves”. (.)
  • In a series of press releases, McLaren announced that (McLaren Chairman) Ron Dennis had sold his 25% stake to other investors and would leave the company. (More…). Following this move, McLaren will re-unify the racing team and automotive company that have been separate entities for the past few years. (More…).
  • McLaren announced that in 2016 it sold 3,286 cars and made an operating profit of £65.8 million on revenue of £649.8 million. (More…)
  • Avtovaz said it hopes to increase sales in Russia by 10% in 2017 on a year-over-year basis. (More…)
  • German automobile club ADAC said that it was advising consumers not to buy new diesel cars until the autumn, when it expected Euro 6D / Stage 6.2 models to become available. (More…)
  • Mahindra & Mahindra reported that June 2017 sales of 35,716 units were down 5% year-over-year. (More…)
  • Subaru announced May 2017 production and sales results. Global production of 86,285 units was up 17.6% on a year-over-year basis. (More…)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • Audi, BMW and MANAgreed with (German region) Bavaria’s government to improve the emissions of Stage 5 diesel cars through the use of new engine management software. This could be a template for agreement at a national level. (More…)
  • French car registrations were up just over 1.5% in June on a year-over-year basis. Sales are up almost 3% YTD. (More…)
  • UK passenger car production data for May 2017 showed a drop of 9.7% year-over-year, which (trade body) SMMT blamed on preparation for new model introductions (More…). Commercial vehicle production declined 11.3% YoY. (More…) Local engine production rose 5.5% YoY. (More…)
  • Spanish production data for May 2017 showed an increase of 6.3% on a year-over-year basis. It is down 1.75% YTD. (More…)
  • The German government will reportedly create a new emissions testing body that makes up for perceived shortfalls highlighted by the VW diesel scandal. (More…)

Suppliers

  • Schaeffler reduced its profit guidance, blaming in part raw materials and higher development costs for electric powertrains. (More…)
  • Volvo announced that the recently formed partnership with Autoliv (called Zenuity) to develop autonomous cars will work with Nvidia, targeting a Level 4 autonomous car by 2021. (More…)
  • Autoliv announced it would “[complement] its innovation strategy] by investing $15 million in the Autotech Ventures VC fund. (More…)
  • Faurecia held an investor day where they presented several long range forecasts around battery electric vehicles and fuel cells. Faurecia see the fuel cell stack and hydrogen tank (an approximate alternative to a long range battery) as costing €4,500 in 2030. (More…)
  • ZF and Hella announced that they will include Nvidia in their recently formed JV to work on self-driving vehicles. (More…)
  • VW and Nvidia announced the creation of a deep learning data lab that will focus on mobility services. (More…)
  • GKN saw employees vote to strike at a plant in Spain after a breakdown in negotiation. (More…)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental

  • Uber said that it had now completed 5 billion trips. The milestone was passed on May 20th but only reported now. Since it reported hitting the 2 billion trips milestone (June 2016), it has averaged just under 9 million trips per day. During the first six months of 2016 the average was about 5.6 million per day. (More…)
  • Alphabet’s (Google) Waymo driverless car division announced an agreement with Avis to run its self-driving test fleet in Phoenix. The exact terms of the agreement (length of time, geography and exclusivity) were unclear. (..)
  • Hot on the heels of the Waymo / Avis tie-up, Bloomberg analysis showed that Apple were renting cars from Hertz’s contract hire subsidiary. Without any indication that Hertz are actually involved in the day-to-day running of the fleet (unlike Avis / Waymo), this seemed to be far more mundane than many media reports indicated. (More…)
  • South Korean firm Kakao Mobility (ride sharing, on-demand chauffeurs and navigation services) has raised $437 million for “aggressive expansion”. (More…)

Driverless / Autonomy

  • Alphabet’s (Google) Waymo driverless car division announced an agreement with Avis to run its self-driving test fleet in Phoenix. The exact terms of the agreement (length of time, geography and exclusivity) were unclear. (..)
  • Volvo announced that the recently formed partnership with Autoliv (called Zenuity) to develop autonomous cars will work with Nvidia, targeting a Level 4 autonomous car by 2021. (More…)
  • ai said that it had raised $50 million in order to help develop self-driving technology, including devices that could be retro-fitted to existing vehicles. (More…)
  • GM indicated that it was looking at ways to involve its dealers in the servicing and fleet management of autonomous vehicles. (More…)
  • HERE announced a joint venture with Mapillary to use the latter’s crowd-sourcing images to built better 3D maps. (More…)
  • Self-driving vehicle researchers were aghast after Volvo reported that it was having particular problems detecting kangaroos with its sensor set up because of the way that they jump around. Fortunately, it turned out to be mis-reporting and concern the fine-tuning of Volvo’s current safety systems, meaning travellers to the outback can still dare to dream of a driverless future. (More…)

Electrification

  • A tweet from Henrik Fisker with the Apple HQ in the background led to rumours that the tech giant might be interested in a tie-up. (More…).
  • The website for Fisker reservations said that each $2,000 deposit is fully refundable. There is a cap on the number of reservations which appears to be under review. It is currently two per household, having been three per person when the site launched. (More…)
  • Audi’s chief technical officer said in an interview that the company would be paying about €100 per kWh for batteries when it launches its new all-electric products later this decade. (More…)
  • Chargepoint (backed by Daimler and BMW) announced that it had secured $125 million in its Series G funding round and that it would take on GE’s charging assets in the US. (More…)
  • Faurecia held an investor day where they presented several long range forecasts around battery electric vehicles and fuel cells. Faurecia see the fuel cell stack and hydrogen tank (an approximate alternative to a long range battery) as costing €4,500 in 2030. (More…)
  • Dutch start-up Lightyear have announced their plan to bring a solar-powered electric car to market in 2019. It will have a range of 800km and reservations are now open. Pricing starts at €119,000 with the final design to be unveiled in 2018. (More…)

 

 

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 19th June to 25th June 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite stories this week…? Our favourite stories this week? We are loving the stuff on electrification. First of all, BMW and US utility PG&E published some really in-depth findings from their vehicle-to-grid storage experiment. If you are trying to really understand the economics of electrification then this is for you. Secondly, Daimler are seeing labour unrest in one of their engine factories due to the future outlook. As companies talk more optimistically about electrification they are going to have more and more employees in the traditional internal combustion engine side of the business wondering about the impact on them (and they aren’t stupid: when you are buying in the motors and batteries it doesn’t leave much for them to do).

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • Released a report covering the learnings from its ChargeForward V2G charging experiment run with US utility PG&E. The report reveals how BMW split battery capacity between a stationery storage facility and parked vehicles and the extent to which they helped manage grid load (about 80% stationery / 20% vehicle in practice). Part of the learning was the time from experiment inception to final reporting — 4 years in this case. (More…)
  • Said that current government policy in India does not support take-up of all-electric vehicles as well as it could. (More…)
  • Announced that the 5 series PHEV will be produced by Magna in Austria under a contract manufacture agreement (More…)
  • Continental were announced as a member of the BMW / Mobileye / Intel development partnership as a “system integrator”, a similar role to Delphi’s. Continental’s press release did not mention Delphi at all. (More…). Delphi’s earlier press release had noted that its agreement was non-exclusive. (More…)
  • Will increase the size of its Strasbourg parts depot by almost half. It isn’t clear if this will lead to an increase in employment at the facility which currently has around 150 staff. (More…)

Daimler

  • Saw works council leaders at its engine factory in Untertürkheim, Germany threaten “work to rule” industrial action starting on 1st July if sufficient job guarantees are not forthcoming. The employees are worried about what Daimler’s stated targets for widespread electrification in the mid-2020s mean for their jobs. (..)
  • The Smart brand will reportedly become electric-only from 2020. (More…)
  • Ride-hailing firm myTaxi said it will buy Romanian company Clever Taxi for an “eight figure” sum. The company is reportedly interested in further acquisitions in Eastern Europe. (More…)
  • Said that it will build a new plant in Russia. The €250 million investment will begin production of E-Class in 2019 and then add other models. The plant will employ around 1,000 people. (More…)
  • Subsidiary Moovel showed a new product that allows public transport operators to create connected payment systems with various types of hardware. This would make it easier to introduce to existing systems — ride hailing and other services could be added into the ecosystem. (More…)

FCA

  • Denied media reports that it was looking to pull the Chrysler brand out of Japan. At present, only one vehicle line (300) is sold in the country and this is through Jeep franchises, rather than an independent network. (..)
  • Has re-branded its rental and lease operations in France as Leasys rather than FCA Fleet Services. (More…)
  • Creating a new dealer efficiency initiative — “FCE Retail Excellence” — in Germany. This will offer tailored support to each dealer based on in-depth analysis, with a focus on customer satisfaction and dealer profitability. (More…)

Ford

  • Announced that it would source the next generation Ford Focus (from 2019) from China rather than Mexico for North America sales. The move will save $1 billion versus Ford’s original plan, of which $500 million has been previously announced after Ford’s decision to scale back its Focus plan. The Focus will also be made in Europe. The move was announced by Ford in a press release that headlined the already widely known sourcing of SUVs rather than the Focus news. (More…)
  • Will recall 39,315 vehicles in India and 15,600 in South America to correct problems with the power steering. (More…)
  • Said that robust sales of LCVs will help Ford to remain profitable in Europe, despite Brexit currency and market growth headwinds. (More…)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Volvo announced that Polestar, previously its performance vehicle sub-brand, will become a standalone electrified performance brand with its own management team. (More…)
  • Geely’s start-up electric only brand Lynk & Co will reportedly only offer 10 variants of its vehicles, with no option lists and with the same price across European countries. (More…)
  • Volvo will acquire Swedish rental car company First Rent A Car. (More…)
  • Volvo signed a new €1.3 billion revolving credit facility, replacing an earlier €660 million agreement. (More…)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • After completing its three year supervision period by the NHTSA (US road safety body) following the ignition recall scandal, GM proposed a new voluntary oversight framework. (..)

Honda

  • Said that its factory in Sayama, Japan would have to close due to an infection of the WannaCry virus. (..)

Hyundai / Kia

  • The head of its Spanish market operations said that diesels will disappear in the B segment. (..)

Nissan (includes Mitsubishi)

  • Said that the next generation Leaf will have ProPiot features that allow autonomous driving in single-lane highway driving (i.e. the system will not change lanes but it will follow curves). Over time the system will be expanded and will “eventually” be capable of city intersections — earlier company materials have suggested that this is not until the 2020s. (..)
  • Mitsubishi said that electric vehicles will be a major part of their strategic plan and that they had changed their thinking, having previously been of the opinion that EVs were “promising, but the price was too big and the range was limited. (More…)
  • Said that the Renault-Nissan alliance intends to launch driverless on-demand services “within 10 years”, though likely not starting before 2020. The services at launch are intended to be heavily geo-fenced, including specific pick-up and drop-off locations. (More…)
  • Said that the search for the new Mitsubishi CCEO will include all corporate officers. An exact timing for the new CEO was unclear with “April on” being mentioned — presumably April 2018. (More…)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • Announced it was issuing about 45 million new shares following the exercise of non listed stock warrants. (More…). French state bank CDC also reported that following recent transactions its stake in the company was 12.2% (More…)
  • PSA gave some further details of its autonomous driving launch plan. Level 3 systems (branded as Traffic Jam Chauffeur and Highway Chauffeur) will be offered from 2020 however the service will only be available in geo-fenced areas (roads that PSA has pre-vetted). PSA plan Level 4 cars by 2025. (More…)
  • Saw its wholly owned dealer group launch a Europe-wide discounting program called “Summerdayz 2017”. It wasn’t clear whether this was in line with PSA’s brand-building approach or represented significant discount activity. (More…)

Renault

  • Announced the creation of a scheme called CityMakers to incubate seven start-ups in Paris that will work on urban mobility projects. (..)
  • Said that the Renault-Nissan alliance intends to launch driverless on-demand services “within 10 years”, though likely not starting before 2020. The services at launch are intended to be heavily geo-fenced, including specific pick-up and drop-off locations. (More…)
  • Said that it will expand aluminium injection manufacturing facilities in Valladolid, Spain, creating 100 jobs. (More…)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • Said that Jaguar will launch a new SUV called the E-Pace, smaller in size than the F-Pace model. Although the name might lead one to believe that the vehicle is electric, it will be powered by petrol and diesel engines. (More…)

Tesla

  • Tesla has reportedly signed a preliminary agreement to establish local production in China, near Shanghai. (More…)
  • Tesla’s head of Autopilot has left the company. Statements from both Tesla and the individual appeared to blame a clash of cultures and / or personalities. (More…). The head of hardware engineering also left. (More…)
  • Said that it was actively talking to other carmakers about their vehicles using Supercharger facilities. (More…)

VW Group

  • Amid rumours of a deal to sell motorbike brand Ducati to Harley Davidson, the VW Works Council declared itself to be opposed, calling the relatively recently acquired (2012) company a “jewel”. It wasn’t clear whether this is because the Works Council perceives an unstated strategic advantage or because it is set against establishing a precedent that would allow other parts of the group to be sold off. The rumoured sale price of €1.5 billion would be almost double what Audi paid for the brand. (More…)
  • Employees at VW’s Slovakia plant went on strike. After six days of industrial action, the group reached agreement with the unions on way rises of 13.5% over two years plus a special bonus. (More…)
  • Announced that Audi will establish a deep-learning artificial intelligence centre at the University of Linz. Initial projects are centred on autonomous vehicles. (More…)
  • Audi announced that it will make its 2nd electric product — the e-tron Sportback at its plant in Brussels with production starting in 2019. (More…)
  • Porsche is reportedly targeting for 50% of its sales to be electrified vehicles by 2023. (More…)
  • Arrest warrants have been issued for 5 former managers and developers in connection with the diesel scandal. (More…)
  • There were reports that Audi’s executive management team had been criticised in internal reports for being unprepared for the future and lacking in decisiveness and impetus for change. (More…)

Other

  • Turkey’s industry minister said that the government was aiming to sign an agreement this year that would result in the creation of a locally developed passenger car by 2019. This timing would either suggest that the vehicle is substantially developed or that the government is overly-optimistic. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • A survey of German car buyers said that less than 20% would consider a diesel car in future. 75% supported the use of driving bans to encourage environmentally-friendly car choices. (More…)
  • After the initial discussions in Brussels last week, the UK secretary of state for exiting the EU (Brexit minister) said that he was “pretty sure” but not certain that there would be a free trade deal and that he anticipated a transition period of between 12 and 24 months for new terms to come into force (after March 2019). (More…)
  • Figures published by the national statistics bureau indicated that Spanish car prices had risen 3.3% year-over-year. This is a slight cooling of April’s rate of 3.6% YoY. (More…)
  • News reports suggested that the EU could sign a trade agreement with Japan that would largely eliminate tariffs on car parts. (More…)

Suppliers

  • Rumours emerged that Takata would likely file for bankruptcy as part of an agreed sale to Key Safety Systems. Share prices immediately dived and trading was then suspended. The bankruptcy filing in Japanese courts came on Monday 26th. As a consequence, many carmakers including Honda, Toyotam Nissan and Subaru said that they no longer expected to receive as much reimbursement for recalls as they had hoped. (More…)
  • Michelin announced a reorganisation that will create 10 reporting regions and 14 business lines. A number of job losses are forecast in the US and France — Michelin gave some forecast natural attrition figures that implied plenty of workers would sign up for early retirement / redundancy. (More…)
  • Magneti Marelli opened a new lighting plant in Changchun, China. The plant is a JV with a local investment firm and will employ 800 people when at full capacity. (More…)
  • Magna announced that they will produce the BMW 5 series PHEV in Austria under a contract manufacture agreement (More…)
  • Continental were announced as a member of the BMW / Mobileye / Intel development partnership as a “system integrator”, a similar role to Delphi’s. Continental’s press release did not mention Delphi at all. (More…). Delphi’s earlier press release had noted that its agreement was non-exclusive. (More…)
  • Continental gave further details on its Cruising Chauffeur Level 3 autonomous system for eyes-off highway driving. The system uses camera, radar and lidar sensors (More…)
  • ZF and Hella announced a strategic partnership to cooperate on sensor technology, primarily radar and camera systems. (More…)
  • The new Bosch chipmaking plant in Dresden, Germany is apparently receiving €200 million of government support (subject to EU agreement). (More…)

Dealers

  • Nissan-owned UK dealer Aprite acquired a Birmingham site from Colliers, completing the latter’s withdrawal from the market. (More…)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental

  • Uber’s CEO resigned, having earlier taken a leave of absence. His departure now leaves a raft of C-suite roles vacant. (More…). The company also announced a “180 days of change” program to improve driver experience, in particular the introduction of tipping and improved cancellation and waiting time charges. (More…)
  • Ride-hailing firm myTaxi (controlled by Daimler) said it will buy Romanian company Clever Taxi for an “eight figure” sum. The company is reportedly interested in further acquisitions in Eastern Europe. (More…)
  • Europcar raised €175 million and announced that it is buying Spanish rental company Goldcar. (More…)
  • Volvo will acquire Swedish rental car company First Rent A Car. (More…)
  • Lyft unveiled a shuttle service in San Francisco that offers fixed fares along pre-determined routes. (More…)

 Driverless / Autonomy

  • An online study of people’s perceptions driverless vehicles appeared to debunk industry myths by finding that men over 50 were most open to the experience (More…)
  • Continental were announced as a member of the BMW / Mobileye / Intel development partnership as a “system integrator”, a similar role to Delphi’s. Continental’s press release did not mention Delphi at all. (More…). Delphi’s earlier press release had noted that its agreement was non-exclusive. (More…)
  • Continental gave further details on its Cruising Chauffeur Level 3 autonomous system for eyes-off highway driving. The system uses camera, radar and lidar sensors (More…)
  • A Polish inventor believes that he may have cracked the dual challenges of autonomy and energy sufficiency by creating the World’s first self-driving potato. (More…)
  • UK government legislation under the Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill is expected to create a framework that means insurance pay outs for crashes by autonomous vehicles are consistent with human-piloted ones. (More…)
  • The Renault-Nissan alliance intends to launch driverless on-demand services “within 10 years”, though likely not starting before 2020. The services at launch are intended to be heavily geo-fenced, including specific pick-up and drop-off locations. (More…)

Electrification

  • BMW released a report covering the learnings from its ChargeForward V2G charging experiment run with US utility PG&E. The report reveals how BMW split battery capacity between a stationery storage facility and parked vehicles and the extent to which they helped manage grid load (about 80% stationery / 20% vehicle in practice). Part of the learning was the time from experiment inception to final reporting — 4 years in this case. (More…)
  • Chinese start-up CHJ Automotive said that it plans to release a $7,800 ultra-compact electric car, seeing the vehicle as a logical upgrade from widely used electric scooters (a similar rationale to the Tata Nano). The vehicle is scheduled for launch in March 2018 but few details were shared. (More…)
  • BMW said that current government policy in India does not support take-up of all-electric vehicles as well as it could. (More…)
  • Audi announced that it will make its 2nd electric product — the e-tron Sportback at its plant in Brussels with production starting in 2019. (More…)
  • Daimler’s Smart brand will reportedly become electric-only from 2020. (More…)
  • German battery cell supplier EAS has reportedly filed for bankruptcy after failing to win new contracts in the automotive industry. (More…)
  • Porsche is reportedly targeting for 50% of its sales to be electrified vehicles by 2023. (More…)
  • Mitsubishi said that electric vehicles will be a major part of their strategic plan and that they had changed their thinking, having previously been of the opinion that EVs were “promising, but the price was too big and the range was limited. (More…)

Other

  • Chinese bike sharing company Ofo increased its security deposit on bikes from RMB99 to RMB199. An Ofo investor declared that currently the company was recouping its investment in new bikes within three months — partly due to the cheap cost of the company’s chosen bike design. (More…)
  • Chinese bike sharing company Wukong Bikes has gone bust. The company’s failure was attributed to it not fitting any GPS or similar devices, leading to the theft of most of its bicycles within five months. Other problems were that its bikes were easily damaged and it gave most rides away for free. (More…)

 

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 12th June to 18th June 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite stories this week? Waymo retiring their self-built cars in preference to more FCA minivans suggests a realisation that hardware isn’t for them — we think too many people are underestimating the challenge of creating a vehicle at acceptable quality and cost. Also, is it just us or does labour discontent in Europe seem to be on the rise? BMW and VW have problems in the UK and Slovakia respectively and PSA’s CEO sent a clear warning that the best protection the Opel workforce could hope for was profitability.

As an aside, how many car sharing / ride hailing / self-driving start-ups is too many? There are people “coming out of stealth mode” and raising hundreds of millions of dollars all over the place right now.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Our latest research

We thought it would be interesting (and fun) to look at Automotive OEM M&A history — and the implications for who might be next in line for a deal. Although everyone loves to talk about potential mega-deals, more often it is smaller transactions — brands being bought and sold (with or without production and R&D resources).

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • UK workers rejected BMW’s latest offer in an ongoing dispute over a new pension structure. The Unite union had suspended strike action whilst the ballot went ahead. (..)
  • Released sales figures for May. 208,447 vehicles were delivered, an increase of 5.1% year-over-year. (More…)
  • Announced that IBM has signed up to BMW’s CarData program. This will allow vehicle data to be assessed with IBM’s Watson AI. (More…)
  • Announced that it was making an investment in Proterra, a US manufacturer of heavy-duty electric vehicles for mass transport. (More…)
  • Announced the ground-breaking for their new plant in Mexico. The plant is scheduled to commence production of 3 Series vehicles in 2019. (More…)

Daimler

  • Participated in a fund-raising round for Middle East ride-hailing firm Careem. (..)

FCA

  • CEO Sergio Marchionne has confirmed that that he will be stepping down in early 2019, the search is now on for his replacement with a list of internal candidates being mentioned. (..)
  • Launched a recall of 209,135 vehicles to correct wiring problems that could lead to deployment of the airbags. (More…)
  • Reported May European sales. 109,800 vehicles were sold, an increase of 11.9% year-over-year. (More…)

Ford

  • Announced a collaboration with Deutsche Post’s subsidiary Streetscooter (maker of the eponymous light delivery vehicle) to make an all-electric version of the Transit chassis cab (it will have a purpose built box installed on the back). Production will begin in July 2017 with an aim of building 2,500 units by the end of 2018. (More…)
  • Said that it will open an office dedicated to European mobility solutions in London. The office space chosen can accommodate up to 40 people. (More…)
  • Reported European sales for May 2017. Ford sold 118,000 vehicles, an increase of 6% year=over-year. Ford saw increases in SUVs and CVs with decreased sales of traditional passenger vehicles. (More…)
  • New CEO Jim Hackett had a wide-ranging interview in which he talked about his 100 day plan which has four key elements: Re-evaluate revenue opportunities; evaluate the fitness of the company; re-evaluate capital deployment; renew focus on innovation. Hackett appeared to take personal credit for recruiting Ford’s head of autonomous vehicles (a move announced only 3 days after he became CEO). (More…)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Volvo said that it will launch a Volvo branded home charger for EVs. The charger is a re-packaged AeroVironment unit. (More…)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • As rumoured, the CEO of Opel confirmed that he will be stepping down. Although he remains with Opel for a transitionary period, he is no longer the CEO and has been replaced by the CFO Michael Lohscheller. (..). PSA support the appointment. (More…)
  • PSA CEO Tavares gave an interview where he said that following the closure of the deal to buy Opel and Vauxhall, a profitability plan would be created within the first 100 days and the incumbent team would be told to implement it. It was speculated that this could mean presentation of the plan at the Frankfurt motorshow in September. Tavares said that the only way that employees could be protected was by being profitable. (More…)
  • Opel unveiled a new “credo”, defining the brand in five simple words: “the future is everyone’s”. Alongside this, the brand has also updated its logo, there is a new Opel Blitz. Both changes coincide with the launch of the Insignia CD car. (More…)
  • Will reportedly extend shutdown at two US factories due to lower demand. Lordstown, Ohio (Chevrolet Cruze), and Kansas City (Chevrolet Malibu) will close for up to 5 weeks versus the normal two week shutdown period. (More…)
  • Is reportedly in discussions with Mahindra & Mahindra to have them take over servicing of legacy GM vehicles once it stops sales operations in India and closes its dealerships. (More…)
  • Declared itself to be the first company to “use mass-production methods” to build autonomous vehicles as it completed a batch of 150 Bolt cars. (More…)
  • Will change the way it manages charitable donations. The General Motors Foundation will close and efforts will be directed through GM Global Corporate Giving. (More…)
  • Confirmed that it has a nominal selling price for a replacement Bolt battery pack. The cost is set at $15,734.29. GM does not expect battery packs to be sold, citing its warranty policy for Bolt vehicles. (More…)
  • Said that 100% of GM India employees who were offered separation packages have accepted. (More…)
  • Saw media speculation that Cruise is seeking to build its own high definition maps. The story is based on vacancies posted by the company and could be around mapping integration. (More…)

Hyundai / Kia

  • Said that it had no plans to buy other car companies but does want to have more cooperation with technology companies. (..)

Nissan

  • Announced that it had reached an agreement with unions at its factory in Avila, Spain that will see the plant remain open but convert from vehicle production to a parts depot. (..)
  • Following on from its announcements around a US charging network with stations of up to 150kW, Nissan has signed a contract with DBT to upgrade its European network to 150kW in the coming years. (More…)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • PSA’s director in Spain and Portugal said that gasoline vehicles will shortly overtake diesels in popularity in Spain. He believes that as current leases are renewed the market will mostly choose gasoline or (gasoline-based) hybrid products. (..)
  • CEO Tavares gave an interview where he said that following the closure of the deal to buy Opel and Vauxhall, a profitability plan would be created within the first 100 days and the incumbent team would be told to implement it. It was speculated that this could mean presentation of the plan at the Frankfurt motorshow in September. Tavares said that the only way that employees could be protected was by being profitable. (More…)
  • Production of Peugeot 308 vehicles was halted temporarily due to a shortage of parts from Benteler, according to union sources. (More…)

Renault

  • Is reportedly studying the creation of a company that would be paid a share of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance savings and pay bonuses to executives over and above their employment contracts with the alliance companies (and possibly with different disclosure rules). The companies refused to give any details but stopped short of denying the scheme was under consideration. (More…)
  • Saw an attempted viral marketing effort result in a #epicfail as the attempt to suggest that a new range of nail polishes could be used by women on their hands and to touch up scratches on their cars met with accusations of sexism. (More…)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • JLR said that it had made a $25 million investment in Lyft via its InMotion subsidiary. The investment includes a technology collaboration and the supply of some JLR vehicles to Lyft. Although only announced now, the investment is part of a fund raising round that closed in April. Whilst JLR touted a multitude of benefits, Lyft said only that it was “excited to join forces”. (More…)
  • JLR will reportedly announce plans to hire 5,000 engineers and technical staff with a focus on electronic and software engineers. JLR made no comment but it is rumoured that an official statement could be made this week. (More…)
  • Some of the shareholdings within the Tata group are being re-organised. Tata Motors is selling a significant minority stake in Tata technologies to Warburg Pincus (More…) whilst Tata Steel is selling its 2.9% stake in Tata Motors to Tata Sons. (More…)

Tesla

  • Tesla clarified that the recent scheme it unveiled to give free supercharging on vehicles purchased by current Tesla owners will only run until the end of 2017 (unless they extend it again). (..)
  • Tesla has won a contract to supply Australian electricity company Transgrid with Powerpack batteries in order to create energy storage that can be used in times of peak demand. (More…)

Toyota

  • Daihatsu is intending to enter the Brazilian market, citing the demand for the type of compact cars in which the brand specialises. (More…)
  • Says it is open to more M&A to obtain new automotive technologies, including in the field of autonomy. Memo: Toyota’s surplus cash pile is larger than its four nearest rivals combined. (More…)
  • Wholly owned subsidiary Toyota Financial Services announced a strategic investment in Finnish company MaaS Global, a start-up intending to build “the world’s first mobility ecosystem). (More…)
  • Said that it was working with Line (Japanese messaging app) and NAVER (South Korean search portal) to develop a personal assistant AI that could be used in Cars (Line already has a system called Clova). (More…)

VW Group

  • Unveiled the next (6th) generation of its Polo B-sized car. The Polo will be available to customers around the end of 2017. (More…)
  • Employees in Slovakia intend to go on strike as of the 20th June due to a pay dispute. Union demands for a 16% pay rise have been rejected by VW. (..)
  • According to the European Commission, VW has agreed to give an additional two years warranty period to customers affected by the diesel emissions scandal but will not pay compensation. (More…)
  • South Korean newspapers reported that VW was going to sign a $6 billion battery supply deal with LG Chem. LG Chem did not deny that the companies were in discussion but said that no deal had been signed. (More…)
  • Showcased SEAT’s efforts to prepare its employees for “industry 4.0” technologies by developing a training program which it intends to roll out to all staff. (More…)
  • Has agreed an engine supply arrangement with GAZ. VW will supply 200,000 diesel engines between 2019 and 2024 from its Salzgitter plant. VW’s press release quoted Works Council representatives saying that the deal would “more than compensate” for production cuts stemming from the pact for the future turnaround plan. (More…)

Other

  • Pininfarina has announced that it intends to raise up to €26.5 million of capital via a new share issue. (More…)
  • McLaren Automotive’s CEO appeared to suggest in an interview that the company is looking at the right conditions for an IPO. (More…)
  • The Financial Times reported comments by Chang’an President Zhu Huaron saying that a massive consolidation of car brands in China was due. He mentioned a future figure of five large groups. (More…)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • Overall European passenger car sales figures for May were released by ACEA. Registrations of 1.387 million units was an increase of 7.6% year-over-year. On a YTD basis the market is up 5.3%. (More…)
  • Germany’s transport ministry said that it sees city-by-city diesel bans as “the wrong approach”. (More…)
  • Brexit talks between the UK government and the EU will start on June 19th — UK has agreed to discuss separation terms ahead of trade talks, with the possibility of no parallel talks remaining. Read our analysis of how Brexit could impact industry here.

Suppliers

  • The European Commission announced that it will carry out an in-depth investigation into the acquisition of chipmaker NXP by rival Qualcomm. (..)
  • Continental announced its Remote Vehicle Data platform. This allows data to be drawn from the vehicle wirelessly (e.g. for servicing). The hardware options include retrofit devices for older cars and factory-fit options. (More…)
  • Gestamp announced the opening of a new R&D centre in Tokyo, Japan. A team of around 60 employees will work on chassis and body technologies. (More…)
  • Intel announced that it had invested in 3 companies: CognitiveScale (machine intelligence); AEye (machine vision); and Element AI (an AI platform provider). Intel sees at least some of these technologies as being relevant to autonomous vehicles. (More…)
  • Bosch is reportedly planning to announce a €1 billion investment in a new plant in Dresden that will make chips for autonomous cars and employ 700 people. (More…)
  • Valeo announced the launch of valeo.ai, an “open community network” that they hope will build leadership in artificial intelligence and act as a bridge between traditional companies, academia and start-ups. It sounds a bit similar to Continental’s 2025AD.com. (More…)
  • Xee and HERE announced a partnership to provide retrofit connected car hardware including GPS and mapping. The system has both private and fleet management applications. (More…)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental

  • Uber published the recommendations of a US law firm that had conducted an investigation into its culture. Among the suggestions were to appoint a strong COO and to have more independence on the board of directors. (More…)
  • As rumoured, Uber’s CEO is stepping down for an unspecified period. Within just a few days, SVP Emil Michael left and a board member resigned after making a sexist joke (More…)
  • Alibaba is reportedly in talks to invest in Grab’s latest fund-raising round which has a target of $1.5 billion. (More…)
  • Rental company EuropCar has made an investment in peer-to-peer car sharing firm SnappCar and now owns 20% of the start-up. (More…)
  • Chinese EV-only car sharing firm Ponycar is said to have raised $22 million. Rival Yibuyongche raised $19 million days earlier. Ponycar has around 2,000 vehicles in use and has said that currently it payback period for a new vehicle investment is 700 days. (More…)
  • JLR said that it had made a $25 million investment in Lyft via its InMotion subsidiary. The investment includes a technology collaboration and the supply of some JLR vehicles to Lyft. Although only announced now, the investment is part of a fund raising round that closed in April. Whilst JLR touted a multitude of benefits, Lyft said only that it was “excited to join forces”. (More…)
  • French car sharing firm Karos announced a white label partnership with a property developer that will allow the developer to create a fleet of vehicles in a business park it owns that can be used by tenants. (More…)
  • Lyft announced an updated set of climate goals following president Trump’s intention to leave the Paris climate agreement. Lyft is targeting 100% use of renewable energy for its electric fleet and that by 2025 Lyft will provide at least 1 billion rides per year in electric autonomous vehicles. (More…)
  • Car sharing firm Split said it was in talks with an OEM to launch on-demand car sharing through the manufacturer’s connectivity suite. Split currently provides a platform for co-workers to share lifts but is hoping to build a presence in consumer services. The potential OEM wasn’t mentioned by JLR are already an investor. (More…)
  • Middle East ride-hailing firm Careem said it had completed a $150 million fund raising, in addition to $350 million earlier in the year. Investors included Daimler. (..)
  • Spanish ride sharing start-up Cabify is reportedly seeking a new funding round of $300 million, having raised $100 million in April (More…)
  • Saw media profiling US ride sharing start-up Sitbaq. The service is similar to BlaBla in that rides are requested between two hours to seven days in advance. (More…)
  • Canadian car rental company Via Route said that it was buying rival Bleu Pelican. (More…)
  • Toyota subsidiary TFS announced a strategic investment in Finnish company MaaS Global, a start-up intending to build “the world’s first mobility ecosystem). (More…)

 Driverless / Autonomy

  • Apple CEO Tim Cook gave an interview where he acknowledged the company’s interest in autonomous cars for the first time saying that Apple was focusing on “autonomous systems” and that a major disruption is looming. Cook was also keen to link autonomy and electrification. He declined to say what type of product this might mean Apple would offer. (More…)
  • German chancellor Merkel speculated that within 20 years, it might be necessary to own a special licence in order to drive a car manually. (More…)
  • Lyft intends that by 2025 it will provide at least 1 billion rides per year in electric autonomous vehicles. (More…)
  • GM declared itself to be the first company to “use mass-production methods” to build autonomous vehicles as it completed a batch of 150 Bolt cars. (More…)
  • Waymo announced the retirement of its self-built driverless vehicles as its new FCA supplied Pacifica minivans are more capable. (More…)
  • Machine vision and LIDAR maker AEye announced a $16 million fund raising round with investors including Intel and Airbus. (More…)
  • The autonomous car field became ever more crowded as Iranian business Persian Gulf Intelligent Technology and Industry Company announced that it had been testing a system it had developed using a 25km test track. (More…)
  • US start-up Optimus Ride is planning to start testing vehicles on the roads of Boston. It hopes to turn its test program into one that takes passengers, similar to the Lfy/Nutonomy tie up. (More…)
  • Japanese start-up ZMP announced that it would partner with one of Tokyo’s top ten taxi fleets by size to try and develop a self-driving taxi in time for the 2020 Olympics. (More…)
  • US lawmakers are developing a series of rules to govern the implementation of self-driving vehicles. Proposals being considered include making all states conform to the same regulations and removing the regulatory agency’s power to block new entrants until it is satisfied that they can operate safely. (More…)
  • Valeo and Cisco unveiled a smart parking service based on Valeo’s vehicle control technology and Cisco’s car park monitoring systems. The system enables vehicles that are in suitable car parks to be parked autonomously. (More…)
  • Vedecom (a self-driving consortium including PSA and Renault) announced a tie-up with Karamba Security to create vehicles that are protected from cyber attacks. They plan to operate vehicles commercially starting in late 2017. (More…)
  • Helsinki will reportedly launch a public fully autonomous bus service (likely to have a conductor on board) later than year, following successful demonstration trials. (More…)

Electrification

  • Despite earlier reports that China would relax quota implementation timings for electric vehicles following discussion with the German government, draft rules published later did not include any revisions. (More…)
  • Chinese electric car start-up Xiaopeng Motors has raised $320 million. The investment was led by Ucar Group, itself a (ride-hailing) start-up. (More…)
  • Fisker has reportedly decided that its initial EMotion vehicles will ship with industry-standard lithium ion battery cells rather than the more revolutionary solid state units it has previously talked about. (More…)
  • GM confirmed that it has a nominal selling price for a replacement Bolt battery pack. The cost is set at $15,734.29. GM does not expect battery packs to be sold, citing its warranty policy for Bolt vehicles. (More…)
  • The Indian Oil Company said that it was planning an entry into the energy storage business. Their current proposal is based on using lead-acid batteries with lithium-ion seen as a potential for improved performance. (More…)
  • South Korean newspapers reported that VW was going to sign a $6 billion battery supply deal with LG Chem. LG Chem did not deny that the companies were in discussion but said that no deal had been signed. (More…)
  • Following on from its announcements around a US charging network with stations of up to 150kW, Nissan has signed a contract with DBT to upgrade its European network to 150kW in the coming years. (More…)
  • German battery researchers unveiled a layered battery that they claim could double energy density. A prototype isn’t planned until 2020. (More…)
  • Samsung said that it had completed its battery plant in Hungary. The facility reportedly has an annual capacity of 50,000 packs and will begin production in Q2 2018. Batteries from the facility will supply BMW and Audi plants. (More…)
  • Researchers looking at vehicle to grid systems reached a worrying conclusion: regular usage (1 or 2 times a day) led to a considerable drop over time in the battery capacity and increase in resistance. (More…)

Other

  • Chinese company Mobike, provider of dockless shared bikes, received $600 million in funding (More…) and also announced that it will launch in the UK with an initial fleet of 1,000 bikes. (More…)

 

 

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

Automotive M&A — How Car Brands Are Bought & Sold

We thought it would be interesting (and fun) to take a look at Automotive M&A (OEM) history — and the implications for who might be next in line for a deal. Although everyone loves to talk about potential mega-deals, more often it is smaller transactions — brands being bought and sold (with or without production and R&D resources). Here are the summary findings:

  • Takeovers of entire companies are historically relatively rare
  • Buying brands (e.g. Opel) or part ownership is far more common
  • Deals are often based on emotion as well as acumen and history is relevant
  • There are several companies or brands that may catch a buyer’s eye
  • Likely interest from companies with portfolio gaps and technology companies looking to pair driverless technology with mechanical know-how
  • Substantial controlling interests remain — deals rely on chemistry as well as compelling business logic

You can find the detailed presentation here. It’s worth a quick look as there are some interesting pages on  Automotive M&A history and the controlling shareholders of some of the big names.

One to watch: Toyota — it looks as though they’ve set up a safety net for several smaller Japanese OEMs. They aren’t acting agressively but they appear ready to step in if those companies need a sugar daddy in future.

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 5th June to 11th June 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite stories this week? We feel like a broken record talking about the continuing debate on self-driving technology but so much great stuff came out this week so we’ll just say please take a look at the “Driverless / Autonomy” section. Also interesting were two pieces of news about Renault’s plans for using 2nd life batteries from electric vehicles for stationery storage. One project is grid-scale, the other is in homes. Tesla, Renault-Nissan and Daimler seem the most active in this area, with R-N publicly exploring more 2nd life applications than the other two.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Company-by-company rundown

Daimler

  • Reported car sales for May. Mercedes and Smart sales of 205,942 units were up 12.3% year-over-year. Sales increased in all regions except NAFTA. (..)

Ford

  • Chairman Bill Ford said that it would be up to governments and regulators to decide on the ethics of how autonomous vehicles would makes decisions in crash scenarios. Ford called this the “difficult piece” of autonomy. (..)
  • Ford sent out redundancy offers to 15,000 salaried staff as part of the actions to reach a target of eliminating 1,400 positions. The payouts are expected by Ford to be between 3 and 18 months pay. (..)
  • Will add a week of production in its Louisville, Kentucky SUV plant this summer due to increased demand. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • The sale of Opel / Vauxhall to PSA may reportedly be completed sooner than expected (end of July) (..). It was also reported that current Opel CEO Karl-Thomas Neumann will resign at the time of sale rather than stay with the company under PSA’s ownership (More…)
  • GM’s annual general meeting saw Greenlight Capital’s proposal for two types of stock comprehensively defeated. (..)
  • GM’s dealers in India may reportedly sue in US courts over the way that the company’s withdrawal from the Indian market is impacting their business. (..)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • A Malaysian government minister said that as part of its purchase of a stake in Proton, Geely would be making Malaysia an export hub for Volvo sales to ASEAN. He said that Geely had agreed to start production on the site of an existing Proton plant within five years. (..)

Honda

  • Said that it was targeting introduction of Level 4 automated driving capability by 2025. (..)

Nissan

  • Nissan is in dispute with the unions at its Avila, Spain plant. It has given a deadline on 14th June for the workforce to accept the same terms as Renault’s plants in the region or face closure. (..)
  • Reportedly planning a 100 MW battery storage facility in partnership with Renault and a business called The Mobility House. The site would contain both new and used batteries. (..)
  • Saw media speculation about succession planning for CEO Carlos Ghosn’s replacement. The Renault-Nissan alliance is reportedly considering appointing a joint executive who would pursue synergies between the two. The role would be a platform for potential future leadership of both companies and may well be a current Renault or Nissan executive. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • Announced that it had agreed terms with its Chinese JV partner ChangAn for local production and sales of the DS brand. (..)
  • The sale of Opel / Vauxhall to PSA may reportedly be completed sooner than expected (end of July) (..).

Renault

  • Saw media speculation about succession planning for CEO Carlos Ghosn’s replacement. The Renault-Nissan alliance is reportedly considering appointing a shared executive who would pursue synergies between the two. The role would be a platform for potential future leadership of both companies and may well be filled by a current Renault or Nissan executive. (..)
  • Reportedly planning a 100 MW battery storage facility in partnership with Nissan and a business called The Mobility House. The site would contain both new and used batteries. (..)
  • Launched a home energy storage product in partnership with Powervault that uses 2nd life Renault EV batteries. The partners claim that the 2nd life batteries reduce the cost of the home energy storage unit by 30%. The program is still at an early stage, with trial units now being installed. (..)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • JLR reported May sales of 45,487 units, up 1.2% year-over-year. (..)
  • Tata announced that it had concluded negotiations on its long term wage settlement with unions in Sanand, India. The agreement is retroactive and runs from October 2015 to September 2020. The agreement reportedly includes a wage increase spread equally across years and a new performance bonus. (..)

Tesla

  • CEO Elon Musk said that all Tesla supercharger locations were being converted to solar and battery energy with the target of disconnecting “almost all” from the grid. He gave no timeline for achieving this. (..)
  • Said that it was on track to deliver the first production Model 3 next month and the online configurator will be launched at the same time, albeit with limited options. (..)
  • Tesla released Model Y teaser images at its annual shareholder meetings. CEO Elon Musk also reportedly said that a new factory would be required to satisfy demand for the vehicle. The exclusive shots appear to confirm that the vehicle will have a roof, front windshield and fenders. (More…)

Toyota

  • Was named most valuable automotive brand in the BrandZ survey (conducted by a subsidiary of WPP). (..)

VW Group

  • The VW brand reported May deliveries of 513,000 vehicles, an increase of 3.5% year-over-year. (More…)
  • Said that it was on course to meet its target of 9,300 separations and that there was “considerable interest” from employees aged between 57 – 62. (..)
  • The US-appointed special inspector told reporters that he may not have received all the relevant documentation relating to the entire VW Group yet (he was unsure) and the scale of monitoring the company properly into the future may necessitate employing a total of 60 people (VW will have a liaison team of 50). (..)
  • Škoda’s international sales manager appeared to confirm that there will not be a replacement for the current generation of the Citigo city car. This is despite apparent plans for a new VW Up! (with which the Citigo shares much of its componentry). (..)
  • Der Spiegel suggested in an article that Porsche Cayenne models had been installed with defeat devices following tests it had commissioned. Porsche rejected the claims and said that the tests results were incomprehensible. (More…)
  • Current Opel CEO Karl-Thomas Neumann will reportedly resign at the time of sale rather than stay with the company under PSA’s ownership — VW are apparently a likely destination. (More…)

Other

  • Fisker said that the US orderbook for their EMotion electric vehicle will open next month. Fisker say that the car has a 161 mph top speed and range of 400 miles. (More…)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • UK registrations fell in May. Passenger car registrations totalled 186,265 cars, down 8.5% year-over-year. The impending general election was blamed for buyers “holding back”. (..). Commercial vehicle registrations of 26,982 units were down 5.3% YoY. (More…)
  • Russia car sales in May of 124,990 vehicles were up 14.7% year-over-year. (More…)

Suppliers

  • Bosch and TomTom announced a “breakthrough” in the use of radar sensors to generate a road signature that could be used in combination with GPS to determine a vehicle’s exact location. Among the benefits claimed by Bosch is that radar signatures use significantly less data than video based location recognition. (..)
  • French President Emmanuel Macron met with representatives of troubled (close to liquidation) supplier GM&S. He promised to set up a “crisis cell” within his team to work on a recovery plan for the company. (..). Despite this, there have been no bidders for the company (More…)
  • Dana announced that it had broken ground on a new 7,500 sqm factory in China for advanced driveline products. It is scheduled to open in 2018 and will employ 130 people when at full production. (..)
  • GKN Driveline said that it would increase capacity by more than 60% at its eDrive factory in Italy due to rising customer demand. It will scale-down and reallocate some of the traditional axle products made at the plant. (..)
  • Michelin said that it would buy the West African SIPH rubber plantation in partnership with Ivorian group Sifca. (..)
  • TomTom announced that it will now move to weekly map updates. The previous update cadence was monthly. TomTom claims normal industry practice is to update quarterly. (..)
  • Delphi will split into two separate and publicly traded companies, the Powertrain division will become a standalone entity with Delphi becoming focussed on advanced connectivity, autonomy and mobility. The intended separation timing is March 2018. (Should have been reported last week). (More…)

Dealers

  • Amazon has reportedly made key hires that will allow it to become an online car dealer in Europe. (..)
  • UK dealer Marshall Motor Group purchased Leeds Volvo from the Harratts Group. (..)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental

  • Ride-hailing platform provider Ridecell will supply the technology infrastructure for Gig Car Share. (..) and a new car-sharing scheme in Poland for Škoda (More…)
  • Daimler-owned Car2Go is making its registration process easier. New users of the service will no longer have to visit a validation point to register their licence. Many competitors already offer an online only service. (..)
  • Uber has reportedly fired over 20 employees following investigations into harassment and bullying and is considering whether the CEO should take a leave of absence. (..)
  • Uber is reportedly in talks to acquire the valet service and engineering know-how of Luxe. Although Luxe intends to continue operation, it has pivoted away from door-to-door valet services. (More…)

Driverless / Autonomy

  • Bosch and TomTom announced a “breakthrough” in the use of radar sensors to generate a road signature that could be used in combination with GPS to determine a vehicle’s exact location. Among the benefits claimed by Bosch is that radar signatures use significantly less data than video based location recognition. (..)
  • In an article by Mobility Buzz, insurance experts indicated that their expectation is that autonomous vehicles would lead to greater, and more severe, accidents due to the increase in technology. This is at odds with much of the automotive industry’s conventional wisdom on the expected level of accident reduction from AVs. (..)
  • UK Simulator trials of humans taking control of autonomous vehicles in emergency situations reinforced earlier research, showing that that humans are on average incapable of immediately taking over the vehicle and require an adjustment period of a few seconds. (..)
  • Continental gave an overview of the work that it is doing around driver interaction with an autonomous vehicle. Similar to the UK trial above, it uses simulators, but was less forthcoming on its findings. (..)
  • Ford Chairman Bill Ford said that it would be up to governments and regulators to decide on the ethics of how autonomous vehicles would makes decisions in crash scenarios. Ford called this the “difficult piece” of autonomy. (..)
  • US transport secretary Elaine Chao met with carmakers in Detroit to discuss rules for autonomous driving saying that “the pressure is mounting for the federal government to do something [in providing clear rules to encourage progress]” (..)
  • Cognata reported an additional investment of $5 million. The company makes simulation software to test autonomous vehicles in highly realistic virtual environments. (..)
  • Continental unveiled 2025AD.cn, a site that it is hoping will become a leading platform for sharing of autonomous car technologies and data. It is the sister site of 2025AD.com. (..)
  • Delphi and Transdev announced a partnership intending to develop a “global, fully automated, mobility-on-demand (AMoD) transport system”. (..)
  • Honda said that it was targeting introduction of Level 4 automat ed driving capability by 2025. (..)
  • Lyft and Nutonomy announced a partnership to run a robotaxi pilot in Boston. Nutonomy have already been testing in Boston since the end of 2016. (More…)

Electrification

  • Renault-Nissan is reportedly planning a 100 MW battery storage facility in partnership with a business called The Mobility House. The site would contain both new and used batteries. (..)
  • Renault launched a home energy storage product in partnership with Powervault that uses 2nd life Renault EV batteries. The partners claim that the 2nd life batteries reduce the cost of the home energy storage unit by 30%. The program is still at an early stage, with trial units now being installed. (..)
  • US research suggested that electric car sales are being held back by a lack of consumer knowledge about charging infrastructure (the actual level was less of a problem than the fact that many consumers simply assumed it was zero). (..)
  • Fisker said that the US orderbook for their EMotion electric vehicle will open next month. Fisker say that the car has a 161 mph top speed and range of 400 miles. (More…)

 Other

  • Porsche Automobil Holding SE (the significant shareholder in VAG, not the car brand) said that it was buying 97% of German traffic and logistics planning software provider PTV Group for around €300 million. (..)
  • Carl Icahn will buy vehicle maintenance and repair company Precision Auto Care. (..)

 

Automotive research, Automotive strategy, Automotive trends, Auto industry trends, Automotive market research, Auto industry news

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 29th May to 4th June 2017

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week? There are two and they both involve the future. The first was the update that BMW gave on their approach to autonomous vehicles. BMW are proving to be one of the most open OEMs regarding their plans and in some ways the level of specifics passes what even Tesla are publishing. The other story of note was an interesting idea from HERE. They say that driverless cars will feature such powerful computers that, when they are parked up, their spare brain power (our words) could be leased out — a new take on the vehicle-to-grid electrification eco-system that is currently being trialled.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Ad Punctum in the media

Last week we were quoted in Manager Magazin’s article on the implications of autonomous vehicles on carmakers.

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • Issued more details of its driverless vehicle program. The company listed Level 3 and Level 4 “with technical provisos” as being offered in 2021. (..)
  • Announced a new service called CarData that provides a platform for owners to share vehicle data with 3rd For instance, it can be used to supply data for tailored insurance premiums. (More…)
  • Had to reduce production in Munich, Leipzig and Shenyang because of parts supply problems from Bosch. The loss was put at “several thousand” vehicles and BMW said it would seek compensation. Bosch are now intending to purchase the supplier in question. (..)

Daimler

  • Widespread media reporting on Daimler’s quest for US criminal lawyers in anticipation of the company potentially having to defend itself over diesel emissions. (..)
  • Signed an agreement with BAIC over electric vehicles. Daimler will become a minority shareholder in BAIC subsidiary Beijing Electric Vehicle Co. (..)
  • Used a press release to highlight its efforts to build a wider supplier base in the USA. (..)
  • Announced that it has reached agreement with the works council at Rastatt over production of electric vehicles and Industry 4.0 productivity measures. As a result, all 3 German plants will be electric vehicle “centres of competence”. (..)

FCA

  • Reported May US sales. Overall sales of 193,040 units were down 1% year-over-year. The main cause of decline was a reduction in sales to fleets. (..)
  • Said that it will add 1,500 jobs at its Ranjangaon, India, plant by the end of the year (current employment 1,700) due to anticipated sales of the locally made Jeep. In time, FCA will increase vehicle local content to 73% (65% today). (..)

Ford

  • Reported May US sales figures. Total sales of 241,126 units was an improvement of 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. Car volumes were down 10% YoY, more than offset by gains in Trucks and SUVs. (..)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Volvo reported May 2017 sales results. Total sales of 47,247 vehicles was up 12.2% year-over-year. On a YTD basis, sales are up 8.9%. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • Reported May US sales. Total sales of 237,364 units was down 1% year-over-year. Retail, commercial (fleet) and government sales were up, partially offset by lower daily rental sales. (..)
  • Said that it will reduce from two to one shift at its Warren Transmission Plant (USA) due to lower car sales. (..)

Honda

  • Announced that it had installed “Europe’s most advanced public electric” vehicle charging station at its German R&D headquarters. The system can charge four vehicles at up to 150kW (memo: Tesla at about 135kW, VW/BMW/Daimler/Ford consortium claims 350kW in future). Honda will add hydrogen filling to the same site at a later date. (..)

Mazda

  • Issued the April 2017 sales and production flash report. Total production of 124,348 units was up about 1.2% year-over-year. (..)

Nissan

  • Reported May US sales of 124,957 units. This was an increase of 2% on a year-over-year basis. Declines in passenger car volumes of 3.1% YoY was more than offset by a 21.5% increase in truck volumes. (..)
  • Bloomberg wrote a report critical of Nissan’s use of fleet sales to keep market share in the USA. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • Appears to have overcome German works council resistance to its takeover of Opel and satisfied its demands for guarantees matching those given by GM. Worker communication meetings that had previously been cancelled are now scheduled to go ahead in coming weeks. (..)
  • The head of Russian Railways has reportedly said that it may sell part of its stake in GEFCO (in which PSA owns 25%) and that “50 percent plus one share” is a sufficient holding. (..)
  • Said that it wants to increase the size of its aftermarket business in Italy by a multiple of five over the next four years (..)
  • Said that it had restructured its French sales operations into a single legal entity. The main benefit is that two sets of employee benefits and working practices will become aligned. (More…)

Renault

  • Saw an activist investor linked to the UAW (US United Automobile Workers union), along with other signatories, send a letter criticising the breath of Carlos Ghosn’s responsibilities and asking the French state shareholding agency to take a more active role. (..)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • Reported May sales (excluding JLR). Total sales of 38,361 units was 4% down year-over-year, about half of this drop coming in the Indian market. Passenger cars were up by 27% YoY in India, partially offsetting the 40% YoY fall in commercial vehicle sales. Tata said that supply of some commercial vehicles had been constrained and that May 2016 had been “very strong”. (..)
  • Announced that it will train up to 40,000 people as part of its “Skill India Mission” contribution. Tata will not hire all the trainees itself. Its annual requirement is around 300-400 new hires. (..)
  • Announced a product investment plan with the aim of boosting global market share — especially in CVs. (More…)

Tesla

  • CEO Elon Musk quit an advisory council to President Trump after Trump announced the start of the process to withdraw the USA from the Paris Accord. (..)
  • The recently launched range of solar roof tiles have apparently been a roaring success and are sold out “well into 2018”. (should have been reported last week). (..)

Toyota

  • Issued its April 2017 flash report. Worldwide production of 819,092 units was 8.7% lower than prior year. All three major brands: Toyota, Daihatsu and Hino contributed to the drop. (..)
  • Reported May US sales. Total sales of 218,248 units were down 0.5% year-over-year. The main reason for the decrease was a reduction in Lexus sales. (..)
  • Issued a recall of around 32,000 Tacoma trucks in the US to correct a defect that could lead to stalling at high speed. (..)
  • Has now sold its remaining holding in Tesla. The sale was completed during 2016 but only confirmed recently (More…)

VW Group

  • Audi will recall 24,000 cars in Europe to rectify software that causes excess emissions. Whilst it chose its language carefully, Audi’s statement did not rule out that some intentional manipulation of the original software may have taken place. Media reporting suggests that the software was programmed to operate in a lower emission condition when the steering angle was less than 15 degrees (indicating that the vehicle was on a test stand). (..)
  • German prosecutors are reportedly looking at whether Porsche vehicles are also affected by emissions cheating. (More…)
  • Vfl Wolfsburg, the German football team owned by VW, stayed in the top flight but will reportedly face severe cost cuts next season. (..)
  • There was media speculation that Audi CEO Rupert Stadler would be replaced before the end of his (recently renewed) contract, which runs to 2022. (More…)

Other

  • Faraday Future’s CFO said that the company was about four weeks away from announcing a new CEO. (..)
  • Mahindra & Mahindra Q4 and full year profits (they report a financial year to 31st March). Group consolidated revenue of about $13.4 billion was up 10.8% year-over-year. Consolidated profit after tax was about $550 million, up 17.5% YoY. (..)
  • Dongfeng’s subsidiary Dongfeng Electric Vehicle will establish a joint venture with Shenzhen Hangshang New Energy for electric vehicle control systems. Each partner will invest about €145 million. (from last week) (..)
  • Suzuki issued its April 2017 flash report. Global production of 263,044 units was up 5% year-over-year, representing a new record (for April). (..)
  • Subaru issued its April 2017 flash report. Global production was up 8.8% YoY to a record high (for April) of 90,742 units. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • US vehicle sales industry for May was reported as 16.58 million units, down from 17.1 million in May 2016. (..)
  • Indian vehicle sales in May showed continued growth in passenger car and two-wheeler segments. (..)
  • German auto club ADAC called for stricter emissions standards so that customers could not be misled. They also proposed that the German federal office of transport create a new consumer council. (..)
  • The European Union finalised a draft that would give the European Commission more powers to punish carmakers cheating emissions testing. The rules still require agreement with the European Parliament. (..)
  • German passenger car registrations in May were 323,952 units, up 12.9% year-over-year. (..)
  • French passenger registrations in May were 191,419 units, up 8.9% year-over-year. CV sales of 36,844 units were up 7.5% YoY. (..)
  • At a summit between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, the two countries agreed a list of 19 projects aimed at establishing joint ventures, one of which was for automobiles. (More…)
  • European trade body ACEA said that it supported initiatives to reduce the environmental impact of vehicles but called on EU governments to take more action on recharging infrastructure (which it said was currently “poor”) and advocated the use of differential tolls for heavy goods vehicles of different emissions levels. (More…)

Suppliers

  • Bosch will buy Tier 2 casting supplier Albertini Cesare, in part to improve reliability of supply (BMW recently had some stoppages resulting from Albertini Cesare’s failure to supply parts to Bosch). (..)
  • Continental and Bosch have struck an agreement with China’s Baidu to develop automated driving, connectivity and mobility services. (..)
  • Bosch announced a cooperation with Sony semiconductor aimed at improving camera recognition, especially in difficult light conditions. (More…)
  • A flurry of product news from Continental: they unveiled AllCharge, a system that can fit any EV to any charging station and cope with rates of up to 350 kW. (..). They have signed up to be supplier for NIOs ES8 SUV program. (More…) and gave details of a wireless charging system that it has developed. Similar in concept to the system Qualcomm demonstrated a few weeks ago, Continental’s system has a lower charge rate and has been developed for parked cars. (More…)
  • French fastenings supplier ARaymond announced a new plant in Baden, Germany. The plant represents an investment of €55 million and will employ 350 people. (..)
  • Magna announced an expansion of its Serbia seat-making plant. The $3.5 million investment will create around 400 jobs. (..)
  • ZF announced a joint venture with Magura, BrakeForceOne and Unicorn Energy to electrify small vehicles (primarily 2 wheelers). ZF will have 48% stake in the JV. (..)
  • Intel released a report that they had commissioned from Strategy Analytics saying that the passenger transport business would be worth $7 trillion globally in 2050 (note: similar to other analysis). (..)
  • Kaspersky Lab and AVL signed a cooperation agreement to create secure software for connected vehicles. They believe that by creating a robust platform they can cross-sell associated hardware and further services. (..)

Dealers

  • UK dealer Holdcroft Motor Group purchased AML Garages of Macclesfield. Financial terms were not disclosed. (..)
  • UK dealer Rybrook Holdings purchased Paymill Motor Holdings of Wolverhampton. (..)

Ride-Hailing, Car Sharing & Rental

  • Uber saw its losses improve to $(708)m in Q1 2017. It’s head of finance is departing to join another start-up and the head of the self-driving unit (and Otto co–founder) Anthony Levandowski was fired for refusing to testify in Uber’s IP dispute with Waymo. (..)
  • Waze (owned by Google / Alphabet) will expand its ride pooling service from Los Angeles to the whole of California. The service matches riders and routes and gives the driver a small per mile reimbursement for fuel. (..)
  • Hertz offered a $1 billion debt issue. The company is looking to raise money to offset the effect of the fall in used car prices and re-finance existing debt. (..)
  • Intel released a report that they had commissioned from Strategy Analytics saying that the passenger transport business would be worth $7 trillion globally in 2050 (note: similar to other analysis). (..)

Driverless / Autonomy

  • BMW issued more details of its driverless vehicle program. The company listed Level 3 and Level 4 “with technical provisos” as being offered in 2021. (..)
  • UK professional body, the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport published a report called “(Re)inventing the wheel” looking at the impact of new technologies, including driverless, on the transport environment to 2035. (..)
  • Continental and Bosch have struck an agreement with China’s Baidu to develop automated driving, connectivity and mobility services. (..)
  • Media profiled Italian / Californian collaboration the Camal Edit, an electrified autonomous modular platform that uses a vehicle design by Camal Studios (previous projects include Ferrari) on OSVehicles’s (More…)
  • HERE suggested that autonomous cars will have so much processing power that parked vehicles could make money from being used for cloud computing, a similar logic to the vehicle-to-grid battery business where pilot projects are already underway. (..)
  • Continental gave details of a wireless charging system that it has developed. Similar in concept to the system Qualcomm demonstrated a few weeks ago, Continental’s system has a lower charge rate and has been developed for parked cars. (..)
  • Bosch announced a cooperation with Sony semiconductor aimed at improving camera recognition, especially in difficult light conditions. (More…)
  • Waymo’s research into autonomous trucks was profiled in the media. (..)
  • Russian search giant Yandex has demonstrated an autonomous vehicle intended for use in its Yandex.taxi ride sharing service. (..)

Electrification

  • China reportedly agreed, following German lobbying, to soften its rules for electrification levels in new vehicles sold from the beginning of 2018. China’s prime minister said that a solution had been found (to the problem that German OEMs have insufficient products in their portfolio to meet the quotas) without giving further details. (..)
  • Continental unveiled AllCharge, a system that can fit any EV to any charging station and cope with rates of up to 350 kW. (..)
  • Continental has signed up to be supplier for NIOs ES8 SUV program. (..)
  • Continental gave details of a wireless charging system that it has developed. Similar in concept to the system Qualcomm demonstrated a few weeks ago, Continental’s system has a lower charge rate and has been developed for parked cars. (..)
  • Honda announced that it had installed “Europe’s most advanced public electric” vehicle charging station at its German R&D headquarters. The system can charge four vehicles at up to 150kW (memo: Tesla at about 135kW, VW/BMW/Daimler/Ford consortium claims 350kW in future). Honda will add hydrogen filling to the same site at a later date. (..)

Other

  • ALD, owned by SocGen, a major contract hire company for vehicle fleets announced two purchases. It will by Merrion Fleet in Ireland (More…) and BBVA Autorenting in Spain. (..)
  • The Indian government said that it would sell its 100% equity stake in Scooter India. It is looking to sell to a new parent, rather than for an IPO. (..)

 

Ad Punctum (and Thomas Ridge) quoted for the first time!

Feels really cool to have been quoted in an article by highly respected German publication Manager Magazin. The article was on the rise of autonomous vehicles and the opportunities and threats for carmakers.

Our specific contribution? „Kön­nen Sie sich ei­nen Kun­den vor­stel­len, der ge­zielt ei­nen Maz­da, Opel, Peu­geot oder Seat als Taxi be­stellt? Wozu also noch 25 un­ter­schied­li­che Mar­ken?“ That loosely translates as “can you imagine demanding that your taxi was a Mazda, Opel, Peugeot or SEAT? If not, then why would we need 25 different brands in future?”.

You can find the article here (subscription required). Ad Punctum / Thomas Ridge’s quote is about halfway through – sharing a paragraph with Thomas Sedran on VW no less.

Thanks to Manager Magazin for the mention and for using us during the article research. It was a very interesting discussion.

Latest Automotive Industry News Review — 22nd May to 28th May 2017

 

We’ve just released our latest weekly review of automotive industry news and trends. You can find it here as a downloadable document.

Our favourite story this week? What about Ford? It was breaking news as we published last week that CEO Mark Fields was going to be replaced but now we’ve had the full suite of management appointments that come with it. We’ll be interested observers of Jim Hackett’s quest to reduce hierarchy and speed up decision making — and especially keen to see how the additional layer of management he’s added with the new roles for Farley, Hinrichs and Klevorn will help. The next Mulally or the next Nardelli? Only time will tell.

For all this and more, take a look at the pdf, or just read on…

Find our archive here.

SIGN UP FOR THE WEEKLY UPDATED TO BE EMAILED TO YOU HERE

 

Our latest research

We’ve published a post based on our research into the on-demand mobility business. It gives an overview of the various parts of the puzzle and sorts them into fact, forecast and fiction.

Company-by-company rundown

BMW

  • There was renewed talk of a merger between car sharing companies DriveNow (BMW) and Car2Go (Daimler). The latest stories have a merger taking place in Q3 2017 and a new brand being established. Rumours of a tie up have circulated since December 2016. BMW’s partner in DriveNow, Sixt, has been openly opposed to the move but BMW reportedly now believes that it can convince Sixt to cooperate. (..)
  • Issued a press release trumpeting its place as the third most popular employer, and most popular carmaker, for young German IT professionals. (..)
  • Will recall over 45,000 2005 to 2008 year 7-series vehicles in the USA to fix faults with door latches. (..)

Daimler

  • Announced it will be making €1 billion investment in battery production. €500 million of this is a new factory at Kamenz, Germany which will add about 500 jobs. (..)
  • Daimler’s offices were raided by German prosecutors investigating possible misconduct in reporting diesel emissions. The raid was part of a previously announced investigation. (..)
  • There was renewed talk of a merger between car sharing companies DriveNow (BMW) and Car2Go (Daimler). The latest stories have a merger taking place in Q3 2017 and a new brand being established. Rumours of a tie up have circulated since December 2016. BMW’s partner in DriveNow, Sixt, has been openly opposed to the move but BMW reportedly now believes that it can convince Sixt to cooperate. (..)
  • Took a 15% stake in Hong Kong based dealer group LSH Auto International which operates about 200 locations in Asia and Australia. The financial terms were kept confidential. (..)

FCA

  • Saw the US Department of Justice file a suit against it detailing various aspects of emissions control technologies that the EPA says that FCA failed to declare during certification for models dating back to 2014. The issues raised by the EPA are around the use of Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) – a technology to help engines burn fuel more effectively and reach optimal operating conditions more quickly and Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) – a technology that uses a chemical (DEF / Urea / Ammonia) to treat NOx in exhaust emissions. The specific complaint is that the way in which FCA has configured the software to run over the conditions experienced in the test cycle is not representative of wider operating conditions and that FCA did not properly declare this during the certification process. (..)

Ford

  • CEO Mark Fields retired and was replaced by former Steelcase CEO Jim Hackett, who has served as a Ford board member from 2013 to 2016 and been chairman of subsidiary Ford Smart Mobility LLC since 2016. At the same time as the appointment, Ford added a layer to its executive management team by announcing three newly created positions: Joe Hinrichs will become EVP, Operations; Jim Farley is EVP, Markets; Marcy Klevorn is EVP, Mobility. (..)
  • Following on from the new CEO appointment and the creation of the new layer of executive management, Ford made a series of subsequent executive announcements. There will be new regional CEOs in North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific (only South America remains unchanged). The purchasing function will now become a part of product development and a new position of vice president for autonomous vehicles has been created. (..)
  • Issued two safety compliance recalls in North America. In total about 3,000 F-series and Explorer vehicles are affected. (..)

Geely (includes Volvo)

  • Zhejiang Geely (major shareholder in Geely Automotive, but not the HK listed company itself) reached a final agreement with Malaysian company DRB-Hicom on the sale of Proton stock. Under the deal, Zhejiang Geely will take a 49.9% stake in Proton and become the exclusive foreign strategic partner for the brand. It also obtains majority control of UK brand Lotus, with a 51% stake. (..)
  • London Taxi Company announced a partnership with Chargemaster to provide at-home charging units for buyers of LTC’s new plug-in hybrid taxi. (..)

General Motors (includes Opel / Vauxhall)

  • A class action lawsuit was filed in the US alleging GM had installed “defeat devices” in Duramax branded diesel vehicles since 2011. There is currently no suggestion from the EPA that GM did use defeat devices. (..). GM said that the claims were baseless and the company would “vigorously defend” itself. (More…)
  • GM’s manager of vehicle and advanced technology policy said that companies that did not pursue collaborative solutions to on-demand mobility would have a “rude awakening”. (..)

Nissan

  • Will reportedly sell its 51% stake in its Lithium Ion battery JV with NEC to Chinese private equity firm GSR capital for about $1 billion. (..)

PSA (excludes Opel/Vauxhall)

  • Lost out in the bidding for Malaysia’s Proton and UK’s Lotus to Geely. (..)
  • The sale of Peugeot Automobile Nigeria, with its 90,000 unit capacity plant, reached another milestone with the CEO if AMCON (the seller) saying that only central bank approval was needed to complete the sale to Aliko Dangote. (..)

Renault

  • Agreed a deal to take over some of Intel’s French research and development activities. Intel has five R&D sites in France and announced in mid-2016 that it would sell or close all of them. Renault will take on two sites: Toulouse and Sophia Antipolis, with about 400 employees. (..)

Tata (includes JLR)

  • Reported Q1 2017 financial results for the total Tata Automotive business. Revenue was down year-over-year, due to lower sales of Tata branded vehicles and weaker GBP impact on JLR sales (even though JLR’s GBP revenues were up). Profit was also down, reflecting higher sales but also higher costs at JLR (along with weaker sterling) and lower sales of Tata commercial vehicles, partially offset by passenger car growth. (..)
  • JLR reported full year results (its financial year runs to the end of March). Wholesales of 604,009 units were a new record, up 16% year-over-year. Full year revenue of £24.3 billion was up 9% YoY, pre-tax profits of £1.6 billion were up 3% YoY. (..)
  • The European Commission announced that it will look at whether state aid rules were breached in agreeing a €125 million support package for JLR’s Slovakia plant. JLR denies that there is any violation of the rules. (..)

Tesla

  • Following Tesla’s recent press release of the steps it takes to manage worker safety, a report by Worksafe (a California not-for-profit) said that the company’s accident rate and lost time due to accidents was higher than industry average. Tesla have argued that their safety record is improving. (..)
  • CEO Elon Musk tweeted his excitement about the next Autopilot software release. He said that the new control algorithm feels “as smooth as silk”. (..)
  • Saw Consumer Reports reinstate some of the points it docked Tesla after Autopilot 2.0’s emergency braking system proved less capable than earlier versions. Tesla still needs to get the system operational at highway speeds to see its Consumer Reports rating returned to the same level it had before Autopilot 2.0 was released. (..)

Toyota

  • Said that it was exploring the use of blockchain technology to securely store autonomous vehicle driving data from multiple sources. The system Toyota is developing is aimed at improvements in three areas: holding test data, usage based insurance and transacting feeds for car or ride hailing. (..)

VW Group

  • Said that it had increased its goal for environmental impact reduction. Instead of the prior target of a 25% drop in key measures of pollution from 2010 levels, VW will now aim for 45% by 2025. (..)
  • CEO Mueller said that changing the company’s culture was proving tougher than expected. (..)
  • French media reported that in a worst-case scenario, the French judicial investigation in aggravated deception by VW in relation to the diesel scandal could result in fine of almost €20 billion. The same report concluded that the fine should be proportionate to the benefit of the fraud. (..)
  • VW has received formal approval for a joint venture with Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group (JAC Motor) specialising in electric vehicles. This paves the way for a joint venture contract between the two. (..)

Other

  • Aston Martin reported its Q1 2017 Financial results. Revenue of £188 million was more than double the prior year’s level. Wholesales of 1,200 units were up 75%. The company reported a profit before tax of £5.9 million for the quarter, ending a run of losses. The full year EBITDA forecast of $170 million indicates that AML expect the performance to continue through the rest of the year. (..)
  • Maruti Suzuki will partner with Dena Bank to offer retail financing for new vehicle sales in India. (..)
  • Mahindra and Mahindra said that it was looking to launch a new electric vehicle in the second half of 2019 and may look to raise funds. (More…)
  • Subaru’s CEO gave an interview where he commented that the company was still not sure whether to have a dedicated EV, or simply make it a powertrain option in existing vehicles. The company has committed to bring an all-electric vehicle to market by 2021 (PHEV in 2018). (..)
  • Chinese carmaker Great Wall will develop self-driving and electric vehicle technology with Japanese chipmaker Renesas Electronics. (..)

And now for the other news…

Economic / Political News

  • German chancellor Angela Merkel said that the country must invest in order to keep up in electric cars and that it was important that electric mobility was ready as quickly as possible. She made her comments at the announcement of Daimler’s new battery factory, (..)
  • EU commercial vehicle registrations were down 7.2% year-over-year in April, blamed on Easter. On a year to date basis, CV registrations are up 3.8% although performance is mixed across markets. (..)
  • UK trade body the SMMT reported April 2017 production. Car output was down 18.2% year-over-year. CV output fell 28.3% YTD. Fewer working days due to Easter was blamed for the fall. Car production YTD is up 1% (More…) and CV production is down 8.1% YTD. (..)
  • Spanish vehicle production has fallen 3.9% on a January to April basis. Fewer workdays due to Easter was cited as a major cause. (More…)

Suppliers

  • Saw media report on the attempt by plaintiffs in the GM class action lawsuit to link the various carmaker diesel scandals to Bosch. (..)
  • Plastic Omnium said that its Automotive Strategic Advisory Committee, formed in 2011, would now add external members to help speed up the company’s innovation efforts. (..)
  • Bavaria’s minister of economic affairs criticised the shareholder battle at Grammer. (..)

Rental, Ride-Hailing & Car Sharing

  • Uber wrote a blog post announcing some changes to the algorithm of its POOL service in New York. Amongst the changes, passengers will now be picked up and dropped off at what Uber determines is the most efficient point, rather than exactly where they asked. (..)
  • Brazilian ride sharing app 99 (aka 99taxis) said that it had $100 million from SoftBank, taking its latest funding round to $200 million. Most of the remainder came from Didi. (..)
  • There was renewed talk of a merger between car sharing companies DriveNow (BMW) and Car2Go (Daimler). The latest stories have a merger taking place in Q3 2017 and a new brand being established. Rumours of a tie up have circulated since December 2016. BMW’s partner in DriveNow, Sixt, has been openly opposed to the move but BMW reportedly now believes that it can convince Sixt to cooperate. (..)
  • Avis Car Rental is increasing the number of connected cars it has in the fleet — to more than 50,000 by early 2018. (..)
  • A ban on Uber’s services in Italy (suspended pending appeal) was overturned by a higher court. (..)
  • Uber said that it had over-charged drivers in New York by failing to calculate commissions properly. (..)
  • Media profiled Los Angeles ride sharing start-up RideYayYo. The company provides drivers with cars free of charge. (..)
  • Paris public transport operator RATP is investing in the Paris operations of car sharing company Communauto. (..)
  • Europcar Group has agreed a deal to acquire German rental company Bunchbinder. Bunchbinder currently has 152 sites and around 20,000 vehicles. (..)

Driverless / Autonomy

  • A UK survey of consumer opinions on driverless cars found that OEMs were perceived as more trustworthy than tech firms — an earlier US study had indicated the opposite. Over half of those surveyed believe that autonomous vehicles will be widely available within the next 10 years. (..)
  • Researchers at the University of Michigan (under the banner M City) published a white paper saying that they believed they had a method to dramatically reduce the time it would take to certify the safety of autonomous vehicles. Their method uses real world data and a computer model to build a random but comprehensive test cycle for the vehicle to accomplish. (..)
  • Chinese carmaker Great Wall will develop self-driving and electric vehicle technology with Japanese chipmaker Renesas Electronics. (..)
  • Toyota said that it was exploring the use of blockchain technology to securely store autonomous vehicle driving data from multiple sources. The system Toyota is developing is aimed at improvements in three areas: holding test data, usage based insurance and transacting feeds for car or ride hailing. (..)
  • Innoviz announced that it will release an aftermarket LIDAR product that can be used for self-driving vehicle development. The product called InnovizPro will be able to collect and analyse data that should be representative of later mass produced products such as the InnovizOne (set for release in 2019). (..)

Electrification

  • The creator of the Streetscooter electric delivery van intends to put an electric city car into production in 2018. The vehicle will be called “GO Life” and will be produced in the Aachen factory alongside Streetscooters. (More…)
  • Subaru’s CEO gave an interview where he commented that the company was still not sure whether to have a dedicated EV, or simply make it a powertrain option in existing vehicles. (..)
  • Chinese conglomerate LeEco announced that the CEO would step down and it would have to make layoffs in the US as it attempted to save money. (..)
  • Employees at Faraday Future were told that the problems at LeEco would not affect them (LeEco is a major backer). (More…) Separate reprots said that the company needed $1 billion in new investment to continue (More…)
  • A Bloomberg New Energy Finance report said that electric vehicles would reach cost parity with gasoline engine cars by 2026. (..)
  • Analysis by UBS said that by 2025 14% of global sales and one third of European sales would be BEV or PHEV. (..)

Other

  • UK used car values (3 years / 60,000 miles) declined by 1.5% in May. Industry experts attributed this to both a surplus of stock and seasonal factors, pointing to a similar dip in May 2016. (..)
  • A profile of start-up Blippar claimed that the company’s technology can recognise (with 97.7% accuracy) any make, model and year of US made car from 2000 onwards as long as the vehicle is travelling below 15 mph. (..)
  • Nexar and the Nevada Center for Advanced Mobility have formed a partnership that will launch a vehicle-to-vehicle network covering Nevada. The partnership hopes to be collected 250 million miles worth of data each week by 2020. (..)

Driverless On-Demand Mobility: Fact, Forecast And Fiction

It’s cool that the possibility of widespread availability of driverless vehicles creating on-demand mobility services has caught the imagination over the past couple of years. Many exciting visions of the future have been shared and lots of amazing gadgetry has been demonstrated.

When it comes to what the future holds, two camps have emerged. On the one hand, there are the optimistic futurists who see robo-taxis for all by 2030 as a statistical certainty. On the other, the world-weary sages who say it will all be a lot later and develop in a far more boring way. Worryingly, this splits along party lines: the tech industry in the avant-garde corner whilst the car industry bides its time, muttering something about having seen it all before. Strangely there aren’t that many people in the middle.

After researching the way people travel and the possibilities for on-demand mobility, it seemed appropriate to write a first principles analysis and provide more facts into the debate…

A presentation with an overview of the research is here

The full fat version is here — it’s 20,000+ words but we promise you’ll learn from reading it

Firstly, beware of single point forecasts (the kind that say “for certain, by 2030 driverless cars will have X% of the market share”). These are scenarios. They are fine for headlines but dig into the detail and very little is concrete. It is more a case of if… driverless cars are good enough and if… regulators allow them free rein and if… people are happy to travel in them because there aren’t any death-trap early experiences. No one knows exactly how this will develop or how fast. If they do, they are from the future. And if they came from the future would they really be writing about the automotive industry rather than relaxing on a beach with their lottery winnings (or maybe being Elon Musk)? This does not mean that any given forecast is certainly wrong. It means you should view them as the author’s preferred scenario. It won’t necessarily happen like that.

We’ve sorted the facts, forecast and fiction to help you develop your own scenarios.

Facts of on-demand mobility
Facts of on-demand mobility

There are a few certainties about driverless cars:

  • Using a driverless car as a taxi will become cheaper than owning a car. Once the artificial intelligence gets sorted out, whether that is 2020, 2030 or 2040, driverless taxis will have a clear cost advantage. The reason is that we all leave our cars parked up in the sun, rain and snow for nearly 23 hours a day on average. Driverless cars can be in use 8 to 10 times more than that (that’s about the limit unless we change our travel habits). The cost doesn’t drop by a factor of 10 because much of it is mileage based but there is enough of a reduction that a taxi operator can cover the overhead of running a car service, make a profit and still charge you less than your car would cost to run.
  • You don’t have to share a robo-taxi for it to be cheaper than a private car, you only have to share robo-taxis if you want it to be cheaper than public transport. Some people are put off by the notion of “shared” mobility and having to rub shoulders with strangers, but that needn’t be the case. If you want to travel on your own then you can do so. You’ll pay more than people who share but less than owning your own car. People who share will pay less than public transport, get a door-to-door service and travel alongside fewer strangers than if they took the bus or metro.
  • Widespread use of robo-taxis would mean far fewer cars were needed. Since this is about stating the facts, we must choose our words carefully. A system that uses the same vehicle to serve multiple customers throughout the day needs a smaller number of vehicles than there are at present, that is a fact. This is not a cast iron guarantee that new car production is reduced — but it is certain that older vehicles (which outnumber new ones by more than 10:1) would no longer be required (apart from for posterity purposes of course). Whilst not guaranteed, it is very likely that new car production would decline. The only scenario in which it would not involves very low vehicle lifetimes and low utilisation rates.
  • Robo-taxis will reduce road accidents and deaths by a massive amount. The forecast is a 90% reduction. Once you start looking at the technology, it’s not hard to see why. The sensors can see a phenomenal amount, in all directions, over long distances. Looking at the track record of humans, things become even more clear. The UK Department for Transport collects road accident data about how the vehicle was travelling when the accident occurred. 50% of them take place whilst the driver is going in a straight line. That’s right, we’re worried about whether robots can drive yet half our accidents come when all we have to do is hold the wheel steady and not crash.
  • The electronics are going to be cheaply available very soon. Although there are questions over how quickly the artificial intelligence (decision making part of the car) will mature, the sensors (the bits that see the surroundings) will be ready for 2020 and be relatively cheap (around $5,000 or possibly even less).
  • Being cheap matters. There is plenty of academic research about how price sensitive people are when it comes to travel and the answer is: a lot. There is a big difference in the amount that the richest and poorest groups travel on the road (far flung holidays come on top of that), even in rich countries. Only the wealthiest 40% can afford to switch simply based on luxury (a robotic chauffeur) and the value of time and effort saved. The rest will find it appealing in concept but wait until the price is right before hopping aboard.
  • A driverless car is still a car. The artificial intelligence bit is super cool but it only covers a narrow range of activities — it will drive and maybe try to monitor your facial expressions; changing the music and mood lighting accordingly. That’s it. The rest of the experience is all traditional car. Is it quiet inside? Is the seat comfortable? Is the ride bumpy? Was that the door handle that just came off in my hand? Technology companies can’t deliver a full turnkey solution without the help of car companies (which can be expanded to include Chinese manufacturers and others such as Magna). Car making is hard. Car making is so hard that there are only two surviving new western car makers in the last three decades — Tesla and McLaren — and neither of them have sold over 100,000 cars a year yet or managed to profitably produce a car that costs less than $80,000 (Model 3 fanboys take note: I said “yet”). Car making is so hard that even though Elon Musk has a company that worked out how to make rockets land on ships, he still frets about getting Model 3 dashboards bolted in efficiently. Please no Fix-It-Again-Tony puns… The fact is that Fiat can sell you a Panda that carries five people at highway speeds and protects them in a crash for the same price as a couple of high end televisions. If someone does a car where the driverless part is amazing but the car bit is rubbish, customers will quickly grow weary. These products must be well executed in every way — the first driverless cars are ambassadors for a whole new mode of transport. Successful solutions will have deep involvement from a car maker.
  • Driverless car capability is already quite high. Most miles are travelled on the easiest road types — the kind of journeys that Tesla’s Autopilot has already gingerly ventured into. Today, more than 60% of road travel is on major roads and highways. Driverless vehicles don’t have to be capable of navigating streets filled with grannies chasing ducks in order to cover most of the journeys that humans take.
  • There is a massive market out there. Humans travel trillions of miles each year on the roads. Even if robo-taxis didn’t dominate but managed to get a market share measured in the tens of percentage points then it could be hugely lucrative — and far bigger than the taxi business is today at about 1% of miles travelled.
  • Travel is going to grow, with or without on-demand mobility. Although it isn’t directly correlated with GDP growth, miles travelled on the road have grown over time and that trend is forecast to continue even with traditional car ownership. In 30 years’ time, the market will probably be somewhere between 20% and 50% larger than today, regardless of the technological changes.
  • Some markets are underserved today. Whether you look at the UK or the US, about 10% of the population have restricted mobility (across age groups). These people travel only half as much on average than everyone else (very few people are completely house-bound). There are very real use cases where cheap, driverless services can help individuals travel more and make a big difference to their lives.

Erm, that’s it for the hard facts. Notice how little that tells us about the timeline. It is solid evidence of driverless mobility being amazing at some point, but not when we can expect it.

Forecasting on-demand mobility
Forecasting on-demand mobility

Here is what we don’t know, and until we know it we won’t know the timing and when we know it, it will be because it already happened:

  • What will the customer think? Widespread usage of robo-taxi services requires two changes in customer behaviour. The first is to be okay with being driven around by a machine. The second is to be okay with subscribing to a service that provides a taxi whenever you need it instead of owning a car. We don’t yet know how receptive people will be to either, certainly in the mainstream. Surveys at the moment say many are wary of driverless cars (but they haven’t actually experienced them) and in the year 2000, 4% of Americans believed Elvis was still alive, so what does any of that tell us?
  • How willing will regulators be to let the vehicles onto the roads in the first place? It will probably vary across the globe. Some will be encouraging, whilst others will be more conservative, perhaps even hostile. Currently, there isn’t even widespread agreement to free running of test fleets — despite the presence of “safety drivers” hovering over the steering wheel. Optimistic forecasts assume that the regulators are compelled by the safety and business case. That may or may not be true, as Saudi Arabia’s ban on women driving and places where you can ride a motorcycle without a helmet attest. The counter argument? These are outliers. The counter-counter argument? These are outliers more than 100 years after the introduction of private cars. When cars were first allowed on the roads in Britain they famously had to be preceded by a man with a flag. Some regulators will take inspiration from that.
  • How much will regulators let the free market rule? The implicit assumption by many today is that driverless mobility will be a no-holds-barred battle of technology and business nous. The victor will be bequeathed an unparalleled monopoly over travel. This vastly misjudges how most regulators — and the governments that appoint them — think and work. Driverless vehicles are a matter of safety and public transport. How many regulators will allow a situation where your chances of death are significantly higher if you use the RobGo service rather than RobDrive? Will they demand that transparent standards are set, followed and available to all for a nominal royalty payment or will they be comfortable with safety-critical technology being proprietary IP? Why would they allow travel monopolies to develop when the markets in energy, media and telecommunications are heavily policed for anti-competitive measures? Approaches will vary, and with them, growth rates. We simply don’t know whether the biggest markets will have the best or worst conditions for growth. In case you doubt the capability of regulators to enact whimsical solutions, just remember that there are cities where you can only drive in on a given day if you have the correct digits on your registration plate.
  • How long does it take artificial intelligence to learn new roads? There are two parts to this question: the first is how long it takes before the artificial intelligence thinks it knows the road, the second is how long it takes for regulators to trust it to use those roads. Elon Musk thinks six billion miles will be sufficient to convince regulators (Toyota think 8.8 billion, including simulation). If Musk is right, then that is less than 0.2% of road travel in the USA each year. It’s high compared to the number of driverless cars on the roads at present but a figure that would be quickly achieved with the right size of fleet in future. There’s an implicit assumption in those statements that approval is a one-time event: will regulators then allow companies to decide for themselves that they are capable on a new road or will they want more oversight?
  • How will the legal framework develop? The fear is this: robo-taxis inevitably crash, the victims sue the faceless corporation that operates them for negligence and win big, bankrupting them. The truth may be more complex. When the manufacturer is hauled before the courts, they will apologise for the outcome but point to the accident rate of their technology being one-tenth that of a human taxi driver. Lawyers will demand that their client be treated as if they are an exceptional driver who made a mistake rather than a wilfully negligent industrial behemoth. Judgements will be completely inconsistent across the globe. In some countries, lawmakers will develop frameworks that can be followed, others will rely on case law. The less coherent the legal conditions, the fewer robo-taxis on the road, but there will likely always be some prepared to test the “guilty but normally better at driving, Your Honour” argument. Even with a 90% better accident rate than humans, thousands may perish in robo-taxi crashes each year. Plenty of court appearances await.
  • How much money is there out there to fund these new fleets? Our analysis is that a fleet of vehicles covering the needs of the US population would cost up to $2.5 trillion to build from scratch. Then there will be an on-going bill to renew the fleet. This means that to have rapid growth, one or more of the following conditions must be met: (1) Hundreds of billions of upfront funding to buy the fleets or; (2) massive customer demand, unchecked by the inevitable accidents, means that robo-taxis operators make massive profits before the inevitable price war or; (3) someone has created an upgrade kit that means conventional cars can be converted into driverless taxis quickly and cheaply and the initial fleet can be created from a motley crew of purpose built and re-purposed cars.
  • What type of vehicle will robo-taxis be? Is it the same as the cars private consumers buy with a few extra parts bolted on to make it autonomous or is it purpose-built an industrial owner wanting to sweat the asset? Some say the former because it gives car makers more flexibility, some say the latter because it optimises the business case. There is a trade-off. If a retail-esque vehicle is used, then they will be wearing out after less than two years. That seems like a lot of money to send to the scrapheap. If they are purpose-built then they will have separate designs, components and assembly machinery (advances in manufacturing engineering and platform commonality notwithstanding).
  • The cars are probably electric but does that even matter? Many researchers are coming to the same conclusion — it makes sense for driverless vehicles operating a taxi service to be electric. It offers the following advantages: longer vehicle life; quieter and smoother customer experience and; regulatory blessing (look how clean I can make your city). What isn’t so clear is whether this is a differentiating factor versus private cars.
  • How fast do costs come down? Suppliers are already talking about a technology cost of around $5,000 in 2020. This means that the vehicle manufacturer will likely want to charge the end customer somewhere in the $7,500 to $10,000 range. But how quickly does the cost come down? Some forecast $1,000 by the late 2020s. The outcome will be heavily based on technology and volume development. Cost reductions probably don’t make or break the business case. If a car lasts for 500,000 miles (as a New York taxi does today) then the difference between a $1,000 and $10,000 technology cost is under $0.02 per mile.
  • How quickly does production capacity increase? If there is demand for driverless vehicles then production capacity will rise but that doesn’t ensure production capacity rises in line with growth in demand from operators. Some forecasts assume driverless vehicles arrive in 2020, quickly prove their worth and then usage takes off. Whilst possible, this doesn’t seem to be the industry’s planning assumption. Although vehicles will be available around 2020, no manufacturer aside from Tesla is saying that these will be in mass production quantities. It takes manufacturers the best part of five years to bring a new product from a blank sheet of paper to production at scale. Ignore their PR teams telling you otherwise. Even if the initial test fleets show great promise for driverless mobility therefore, manufacturers may struggle to deliver volume before mid-decade.
  • Will there be an explosion in travel as road movement becomes cheaper and more relaxing? The advent of on-demand driverless transport will mean big gains for the individuals with restricted mobility (see facts), but at a population level, the effect is less significant — probably around 5% growth in total travel. Explosive growth of new markets (some talk of 40%+ increases in miles travelled) requires a fundamental change in behaviour. Quite possibly those forecasting huge growth will end up being right for the wrong reasons: organic transport growth will mean a rise in miles travelled that would have happened even if we were still using “dumb” cars.
  • Will robo-taxis clean up our streets or create nightmare traffic jams? There seem to be two opposite opinions here. The first is that with fewer cars, which are on the move more of the time, there will be less need for parking (true) and that space will given over to the public and filled with (developers may have other ideas). The second is that autonomous cars will cause an explosion of miles travelled, resulting in a gridlocked hellscape beyond our worst fears (Malthus would applaud but given how much travel has increased in the last century, it seems that cities and humans can cope).
  • How will autonomy impact freight delivery? Presently, about 50% of freight volume travels on the road (as opposed to rail and pipeline). Removing the driver of a heavy goods vehicle will yield savings, but at a $/tonne level (it will be cents per package). Removing the driver of local delivery vehicles would have a more significant impact on the customer’s wallet. This is dependent on new solutions for getting the package safely into the home without a delivery person involved.

Each of the points above have variability which would prove positive or negative for robo-taxi growth. Divining a single timeline is a challenge. Steady growth is about various forces (operators, customers, regulators, investors and manufacturers) finding a favourable equilibrium — likely to be easier in some locations than others.

The fiction of on-demand mobility
The fiction of on-demand mobility

Here is what we won’t see — or if we do it’s because on-demand mobility becomes a business that defies known laws of commerce in new and special ways.

  • Vertically integrated solutions won’t last in the long term. Almost everyone seems to be planning on doing everything (except perhaps for Google, Lyft and FCA). The vertically integrated narrative is this: Companies will design and manufacture driverless vehicles. They will sell them to a subsidiary that owns and operates a fleet for rental on a per-ride basis. This fleet subsidiary will be twinned with a wholly-owned customer transport business that will take care of all travel needs, using the fleet vehicles to conduct all travel except long-distance journeys (which might involve air travel or high speed rail). Whilst the mobility business is immature, companies might find themselves trying to offer a complete service to fully stimulate demand but if they continue operating this way as the market nears maturity then they will find themselves operating far more broadly than other industries. It would be like the same company making an aeroplane, having an airline and running a travel agent. Corporations that can do this will be the best companies in the world; they will have mastered the challenge of running a conglomerate. The list of possibilities is endless: where will they go next: ice cream or diamonds? The business reality will be far different, and for good reason: Google knows artificial intelligence but not much about complex mechanical machinery and high volume production; GM knows about designing and building cars but doesn’t have much experience of e-commerce and customer-facing services; Uber knows about linking customers with taxis and taking payment but it doesn’t know the nitty-gritty of owning, servicing and cleaning thousands of vehicles per day. Companies that try to do it all will lose out to well-balanced partnerships.
  • Operators will not get to become long term monopolies. If they do manage then they will have succeeded where mobile phone operators, media companies, airlines and hosts of others have failed. Any monopolies won’t last long. The assumption of monopoly potential is based dominance of Google and Facebook in their respective markets but this ignores that those segments operate in conditions which make it hard for regulators to judge what is in the consumer’s best interest: the service is free at point of use. If someone has this model for operating robo-taxis, we are yet to see it. If, as we suspect, they intend to charge money and make a profit then expect competition authorities to come after monopolistic activities. They have plenty of tools at their disposal, ranging from crude break-ups to licencing granted via auction in traches where any single bidder can only win a fraction of the total amount.
  • Long-distance commuting while sleeping in driverless cars will be niche. Some dream of a non-stop world where we virtually live in vehicles always on the move. Multi-millionaires provide a clear counterpoint though: they could choose to do this now, a customised van with driver wouldn’t set them back very much ($350,000 for something with an interior befitting a corporate jet) and yet few of them do so. For centuries, humans have commuted for about an hour a day. A trend that has seen off the train, coach and car is likely to have the measure of robo-taxis too.
  • Widespread use of flying cars? Come off it. There are plenty of obstacles that driverless cars must overcome (not least of which is price) and yet technological and logistical issues surrounding quadcopters-for-all can be resolved in a short time frame? Wake us up once air traffic control has been automated and can handle exponential increases in traffic.

The End Result

It will be exciting, lots of money will be lost, lots of money might be made. People who got lucky will, after the event, say that they had it figured out all along. Whenever you see an apparently definitive forecast, tell yourself that it’s a best-guess and ask yourself how it might be affected by the variables listed here. If you want to tear our points to shreds then please read the comprehensive report first. Reading the detail will help you prepare an even more compelling counter-argument!

Hopefully you enjoyed this post! If you want a hard copy, you can find a PDF version here.